Mack’s Morning Report – 4-4-16 – My Predictions for 2016


Good morning.

Minor league affiliates will firm up this week. Players will attend their respective media days and rosters will be out by the end of the week. Thursday is opening day for the four full season teams.  Las Vegas opens up at home vs. Fresno, Binghamton also opens up at home, vs. New Hampshire, St. Lucie gets a home start against Jupiter, and Columbia plays its first game ever in Charleston.

Yes, we are one game in but it’s not too late for me to throw my predictions out there for the 2016 season. Here goes –

1.     I think Noah Syndergaard will finish the season as one of the top three vote getters for the Cy Young Award. He may even win it, but top three is as far as I’m going to go here. There is some great pitchers in the National League and it would be an honor for Syndergaard to achieve my prediction here.

2.     I think Zack Wheeler will come back and have a respectable 2016 season. I’m thinking somewhere in the 7-9 wins area with an ERA well under 4.00. He also could finish second to Syndergaard in the K/9 ranking and should finish the season bypassing Steven Matz for the SP4 slot.

3.     I think the decision to sign Alejando De Aza to a contract this year is going to be one of Sandy Alderson’s top genius moves as a General Manager because I think we will lose one of the other four outfielders with a season ending injury, maybe as early as the end of May. Can’t say who. Wouldn’t be prudent. But just wait and see.

4.     I think it’s going to get increasingly harder to get decent tickets to see this team play. You may have to call up Earnest Dove and see if they can squeeze in out in the cheap seats with the 7 Train crowd. Forget behind home plate next to the Marlins Man. That’s Republican tickets.

5.     I think Logan Verrett will set up and do well at whatever the Mets want him to do… long relief… emergency starter… whatever. Verrett, Reed, and Familia will be the rocks of the pen this season.

6.     I think that 2016 will continue the sad, long journey of decline in David Wright’s game. It won’t have reached the ‘Tiger Woods pulling out of The Masters’ stage yet, but it will become quite obvious that the Mets are going to have to look elsewhere for someone to play third base in 2017.

7.     I think you are going to be ole so happy that Yoenis Cespedes is back in a Mets uniform You’ll even dance in the isles if he plays more in left field than in center. You get Golden Glove quality play in center (Lagares) without losing one of the top bats in the league (Cespedes).

8.     Josh Smoker will be the next great pitcher to come out of the Mets system. He probably will open up this week in St. Lucie because the Mets want to keep his arm warm those first few weeks that still bring show to New York State. He will quickly transfer to Binghamton and could easily bypass Las Vegas and hit Queens sometime in September.

9.     Dilson Herrera is going to play lights out in Las Vegas and put a tremendous amount of pressure on Neil Walker to play well. Frankly I don’t think there is anything Walker can do to stop this guy.

10.  Matt Oberste will give Dominic Smith a run of the money as the next top first baseman prospect in the system. Oberste has played three seasons in the Mets system since coming out of Oklahoma in 2013 as a 7th round draft pick. His 3-year stat line is (Brooklyn – Savannah – St, Lucie): 1010-AB, .268/.318/.395/.713, 17-HR, 135-RBI. The race for the next Queens first baseman is far from over. 


Ernest Dove said...

Everyone is welcome to come to Florida and watch a Mets home game against along with thousands of your fellow Mets fans......

Speaking of Florida, I think Mack may have taken some of that hot new drug down here called flakka when he wrote prediction number 10.

Thomas Brennan said...

10 predictions I can live with. I'd add Seth Lugo in there as a possible Citi arm in 2016.

I heard that after the game, Terry was miffed because Yoenis Cespedes was blaring his favorite Britney Spears song in the clubhouse: WHOOPS, I DID IT AGAIN.

please make that the last drop of 2016, Mr. Cespedes. A few too many boo boos in KC.

Adam Smith said...

Good morning. Does anyone know (I don't) which was the last team to have three different players finish top ten in MVP voting, top 3 in Cy Young voting, and top 3 in ROY voting in the same season?

I'm predicting that we pull that off this year (Cespedes, Thor, Matz).

I'll also predict - 30 HR for Duda, Lagares with a surprise breakout season, and 100 wins on the nose and we take the division.

Stinks to lose the opener, but having the tying run at 3rd in the 9th inning with Cespedes at the plate, against the world champs on the night they raised the banner says that we're not so far from where we need to be. I think we beat em on Tuesday with Thor and then (after a ridiculous two days off that will feel like two weeks) we are off to the races.

Thomas Brennan said...

I am with you, Adam.

Robb said...

Here is what walker can do to stave off herrera, play well enough to be offered and to be willing to decline a qualifying offer. Thats the pace he needs to staves off all competition. that qualifying offer decline and his signing with another team is worth about 5 mm to the mets. also hitting 270 is good enough.

Mack, how long do you think until wright and conforto swap in the batting order. maybe wright goes to fifth instead of 2.

i think you're going to see your 2018 primary third baseman a lot this year, in wilmer flores. remember thats where everyone thought he'd play when he was a top prospect.

While cabera and walker may not have a lot of range. clearly on display last night, walker and cabera made everything they got to look routine, which was unique as i kept waiting for a wild throw to the wrong base or a deek for no good reason.

Anonymous said...

not sure Wheeler will get enough starts/decisions to get to 7-9; unless Walker is an all star, I don't see them giving a QO, after the players that got iced last year, I see more and more of them taking the one time payout and wait until they don't have a pick attached to them; David Wright looks shot, love the guy, but having a difficult time catching up with FB. Best case is he plays marginally well enough to contribute, Mets win WS and he retires due to injury and mets recover some insurance money. I agree keeping de Aza, even if there is no season ending injury, he is quality depth

Anon Joe F

James Preller said...

I think Wright is toast and hate him in the 2-spot.

There's a weird groundswell of opinion out there that wants to put Lagares on the field and Conforto on the bench. I am not feeling that in any way whatsoever.

Sure, it's nice that Juan woke up and decided to get into shape. I like him a lot of a 4th outfielder. But he has yet to prove anything with the bat. Whereas I think Conforto is a star.

I realize it is awkward to have Cespedes in CF, but that's the way they've constructed this team. One of the biggest reasons for the turnaround last season was that Conforto effectively replaced Lagares in the lineup. It represented a jump of .250 OPS in just one player. I think he should be batting 3rd.

Thomas Brennan said...

Agree, James

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

You figured out early that #10 was especially for you

Mack Ade said...

Robb - James -

I'm writing about Wright tomorrow morning.

He no long is effective in the 2-5 slots

Anonymous said...

Excited that the season is here and it was nice to see some of the new faces on the team....but I would be lying if I wasn't a touch uneasy about 2016. We have the talent to challenge for a championship, but the "little things" that good teams do on a routine basis, seem like a challenge for this group (at times).

We are as good, if not better then KC.....but they don't kill themselves with mistakes.

We had the lead in four of the five WS games last year, in the 8th inning or later and managed to lose three of them. Last night, we didn't have a lead, but we lost a one run game, largely due to Cespedes' gaffe in LF.

It puts extra pressure on everyone, when you give the other team extra chances (I hope they can clean this up as the season progresses).


Mack Ade said...


Last night, which is only one game, is another example of the 'little things' that has plagued this team for years.

IB said...

When Moustakis made that long throw from behind 3rd to save a run last night I wondered whether Wright could have made the same play.
I guess the answer will come soon enough and, if he can't, we got problems. The "little things" that win or lose ballgames.

Dallas said...

Wow, people are really taking Wright to task after the first game of the season. Commenters, Bloggers, Beat Writers, National Writers all calling him done. I hope you guys are all wrong. Not everything is going to go right in every game. Royals played better defense than us plain and simple and it won them the game. Only the Cespedes play was atrocious.

Mack your number 7 seems to point at Conforto on the bench. He might be our best position player by the end of the season. He sure looked good last night (outside of the CS)

Mack's Mets © 2012