Reese Kaplan -- Should the Mets Stay In-House at C?

One thing all Mets fans have come to know is that Las Vegas numbers must be taken with a grain (or an entire silo) of salt.  Very late to the same conclusion, the Mets recently promoted Chris Flexen directly from AA to avoid the hitting happy PCL altogether, and although the results have not been good in his first two starts, I applaud the change in thinking. (His third start was better than he showed given his manager's characteristic early hook, but he did get the W).

The flip side, of course, is the hitting prowess shown in AAA only rarely translates to the major league level.  For example, in 2016 Gavin Cecchini hit .325 over the course of nearly 500 ABs in Vegas, so you’d think he would be ripe for the majors.  Now the Mets were already crowded with Neil Walker, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, T.J. Rivera and Wilmer Flores all ahead of him on the middle infield pecking order, so it was incumbent upon Cecchini to do even better this year to force himself into the conversation.  Unfortunately upon shifting to 2B his hitting went south and although he’s slowly come back a little, he’s still at just .261 with even less power. 

He’s far from the only hitter to have shown well in Vegas and then gone backwards either at the major league or AAA level in subsequent play.  Matt Reynolds hit .333 in Las Vegas over 300 ABs, had a few cups of coffee with the Mets where he hit just .217 overall, reverted to the .260s in AAA before rebounding lately for a .330 mark in Las Vegas.  He’s probably a better hitter than he’s shown with the Mets but likely nowhere near the .330 range he’s twice shown in the minors. 

Andrew Brown, Eric Campbell and others were examples of players who could hit with aplomb in Las Vegas but couldn’t translate it to the majors.  It’s these types of experiences that have the Mets wondering whether or not Amed Rosario and Dom Smith are for real or merely a product of their environment? 

The player most intriguing in this regard is Kevin Plawecki.  He has had some extended trials in the majors due to Travis d’Arnaud’s many stints on the DL.  He’s frankly not done very well.  Over the course of 389 major league ABs he has hit just .206 with 4 HRs and 36 RBIs.  Most alarmingly, for a guy without much power, he’s struck out 97 times.

To be fair, however, Plawecki during the 2015 season was suffering from regular dizzy spells due to a sinus problem that required off-season surgery to correct.  He described it as almost feeling drunk without having had anything to drink.  Granted, the Mets organization was not very deep in catchers, but you’d think someone on the staff would have noticed. 

In 2016 you’d think with the issue corrected he’d have been ready to tear the cover off the ball as he’d done as a career .296 hitter in the minors.  He began to show immediate improvement and in just 200 ABs in 2016 in Las Vegas he hit 8 HRs, drove in 40 and was batting .300.  At the major league level, however, he was under the Mendoza line.

Fast forward to 2017 and Plawecki is on fire in Las Vegas.  He’s hitting .329/8/39 in 239 ABs.  More importantly, he’s only struck out 32 times.  For most Mets fans (and probably Mets management) Plawecki is a lost cause, but the ever-frugal organization might want to bring him up and see if he would be a worthy backup to Travis d’Arnaud because Rene Rivera is being paid $1.75 million and set to hit free agency.  Plawecki comes at major league minimum.  Granted, he’s not the backstop that Rivera is, but Rivera is a career .217 hitter over nearly 1400 ABs.  He’s not exactly Johnny Bench on either side of the game. 

Obviously Travis d’Arnaud has been a disappointment, but while they await Tomas Nido and Patrick Mazeika, they may opt for one more year of d’Arnaud to show whether or not he can put it altogether.  Many feel he’s underperforming, but it’s really his batting average that is a concern.  From a run production point of view he’s hit 10 HRs and driven in 36 in just 227 ABs.  If he produced 20/72 over the course of a full season I don’t think anyone would reject that.  He’s earning $1.875 million this year and is arbitration eligible.  Given that he will likely get a pretty big bump to $3 million or more, I can’t see the Mets paying nearly as much for a backup.

Many are clamoring for Jonathon Lucroy to be signed as a FA.  He’s having a down year by his standards – just .245/4/28  in 290 ABs – worse than d’Arnaud.  What Lucroy does have going for him is greater overall health and a yearly average of .280/16/77.  He’s currently earning $5.25 million and available to the highest bidder (assuming Colorado doesn’t seek to use its exclusive negotiating position to retain him – something the Mets should be exploring with Jay Bruce). 

So the question becomes whether the uptick in batting average Lucroy would provide is worth double what d’Arnaud would provide, taking into account that Lucroy will start the season at age 32 and d’Arnaud at 29.  Three years in catcher-time is almost like counting dog years. 

Personally, I think that d’Arnaud deserves one more year and Plawecki deserves a shot as the major league backup.  Granted, neither are terrific defenders, but then that’s true of Lucroy as well.  Unless the Mets can wrangle a top catching prospect from another club in trade, those appear to be the options – Lucroy, d’Arnaud, Rivera and Plawecki.  The only hope is that the Marlins go full fire-sale mode and will consider moving J.T. Realmuto before he becomes expensive.  Unfortunately, that’s a mere pipe dream, just like the one I have regularly about a new management team.