Tom Brennan - RESULTS VS. EXPECTATIONS
The above does NOT represent the Mets' picture for 2017.
Sometimes you go into something with certain expectations, and the results are sometimes spot on and sometimes very different. Let's look at 11 such prognostications.
1. I expect really good things from these starters.
Well, those starters are Zach Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Rafael Montero, Rob Gsellman, and Steve Matz. Before the season, I expected some strong, but not great, pitching from them. WRONG.
The 5 made 68 starts (and 17 relief appearances), and are 15-30, with a 6.30 ERA in 376 innings. I would doubt that in Mets' history you could find 5 guys picthing the equivalent of 42 complete 9 inning games with that kind of staggeringly bad ERA.
2. I did not expect to see certain guys before Sept., if at all.
Well, those 5 pitchers are Chris Flexen, Chasen Bradford, Eric Goeddel, Paul Sewald, and Tyler Pill. While the 5 are only 3-9, they got in 89 games - and it is still 2 weeks from September. They have thrown 127 innings, 4.54 ERA and a K per inning. Compare to the vaunted first group above. The Afterthought Five crushed 'em.
3. Noah Syndergaard would be a neck-and-neck racehorse in the Cy Young Derby.
Hard to do when you've thrown about as many innings (27) as the front runners have made starts.
4. Jeurys Familia would return from suspension and still have time to rack up 35 saves or more. He and Addison Reed would handle all save opportunities.
Due to the Familia Clot, he's thrown 9 innings and saved 3 games. He and Addison Reed still managed to save 22 of 25, but the other guys? TWELVE blown saves in 16 save opportunities. That really blows, don't you agree?
5. We'd end up with 5 starters with 10 or more wins, possibly 6 starters.
Jake has 13, but Gsellman and Harvey would share second place with 5 wins apiece. Hansel Robles, despite a deserved month or so in the minors, is 2nd on the teams with 7 wins.
6. Mets would have one of the best team ERAs in baseball.
Not exactly. After 119 games, it sits at 4.89, 27th worst in baseball. The 169 homers allowed in 119 games projects to 230 homers, clearly the worst total for any Mets staff ever. No, I'm not looking it up.
7. Yoenis Cespedes would win the MVP and have 45 homers and 120 RBIs.
On August 18, he has 15 homers 38 RBIs, so 74% of the way through the season, he is just 1/3 of the way to my pre-season targets.
8. David Wright would not play.
Right. Spot on. David Wright has not played.
9. Amed Rosario would be called up in early May and be in the running for Rookie of the Year.
He got called up in early August, a little too early to have few enough at bats in 2017 to qualify for 2018 Rookie of the Year.
10. Jake would be Jake.
Jake has in fact been Jake. Not Super Jake, but Jake, and that is pretty darned good.
11. The Mets would be neck and neck with the Dodgers at season's end for the NL's best record.
Nope. On August 18, the Mets trailed the Dodgers by a mere 32 games. neck and neck for a giraffe, maybe.
I hope your expectations are for a GREAT DAY, everybody.
11 comments:
Morning Tom.
Just checking in.
As you know, I'm taking a few weeks off to take care of some family matters, but when I return, my first Morning Report will cover my thoughts on the future of this team.
Mack
Hope all is well, Mack.
I get some Roto Rooter surgery mid-week, so I hope that is just a quick blip on my screen. Ahh, the dividends of aging...it can impact one's expectations, sometimes.
I hope to be available to pinch hit for the Mets by Friday, since they are calling everyone else up - why not me?
In this whacky season, the Mets have 183 homers in 121 games...on pace for 246 dingers - it takes more than dingers to win.
Rafael Montero is seemingly taking advantage of this, his 16th career chance at least, and pitching better right now than Matz, Gsellman, Harvey and Wheeler - draw your own conclusions.
Right now I'm penciling in Montero (who is out of options) as long man/spot starter.
Reese -
It will be interesting to watch Montero for the rest of this season.
He is currently pounding the zone. Has he finally found the garage?
Hard to head into the offseason unsure if you have seven ML starters, or two, and you're not even sure who the second one is. I have high hopes for Conforto, Rosario, Smith and Flores for next season, but I don't believe that this mess will be cleaned up anytime soon.
Looking forward to your reports Mack. Hope all is well too.
If Montero pitches well in his next 5/6 starts, pitchers like Wheeler and Matz will have to beat him out of a rotation spot next year.
Anyone read the comments by the resident Imbecile in the dugout? He is still evaluating d'Arnaud because after 5 years he still doesn't know what d'Arnaud is? Amazing isn't it?
The Mets should play Flores at 3B the rest of the way and Cecchini at 2B. And to keep the peace on the team, tell Cabrera that his option is being picked up.
Adam -
I think we can count on a full recovery for Syndergard and he and deGrom will lead us into 2018.
The rest?
Who da heck knows.
Viper -
I'm fine. it's a family thing/ Got a day today to breathe, water the plants., etc.
I'm still able to go online at night and schedule any posts and post what roster moves I get sent to me from the teams.
Different topic - a dividend today from one of the players acquired in trades:
Drew Smith relieved for Binghamton today, 2.2 IP, no runners, fanned 7. Yep, SEVEN!
Ya got love that.
Yet they chose to add Tommy Milone to the major league team instead of cutting him loose and seeing if one of the 6 minor league relievers obtained in the fire sale is capable of contributing.
The Milone decision is baloney. C'mon Sandy, it's kiddie time. Bring up Callahan.
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