Good morning.
2018 -
I’ve taken a little time to step back
and look where this team has been and where it is going in 2018. Let’s face it,
if we took past, present, and future injuries off the table, the 2018 version
of this team will be far less talented than this year’s opening day 50-man
crew.
Worse than this is the fact that, with
the promotion of Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario to Flushing, there no longer is a ++
prospect left at the AAA level.
There’s prime talent in Queens. In
the field, there is Smith, Rosario, Michael Conforto,
and Yoenes Cespedes. On the mound, there is Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Jeurys Familia, and A.J. Ramos. But eight players do not make for a great
team.
Oh, I know, some of you (including some
of my writers) will question me leaving out names like Wilmer
Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, and Victor Cruzado (morning Hobie!). They are nice players
but they are not prime. Worse than this, most of the players that have left or
ae leaving at the end of this season were prime also.
Look, you know me. I predicted this team
would finish third in their division after factoring in the average number of
injuries that fall on these guys. It looks like heavier injuries will cause the
Mets to drop even further.
(one sidebar... I've been thinking since the Conforto debacle, do we really want to play any of our precious few prospects anymore this season? I know that Amed Rosario and Dom Smith just got here, but what would be your thoughts if one of these guys broke his leg sliding into second? I mean, do we really want to light up Syndergaard anymore this season and shouldn't we put Jake on the shelf until the spring?)
(one sidebar... I've been thinking since the Conforto debacle, do we really want to play any of our precious few prospects anymore this season? I know that Amed Rosario and Dom Smith just got here, but what would be your thoughts if one of these guys broke his leg sliding into second? I mean, do we really want to light up Syndergaard anymore this season and shouldn't we put Jake on the shelf until the spring?)
The Mets will be much leaner come the
day after the season ends. The owners will smile when they look at their
projected profit and loss statements for the off season. What they do from here
is still undetermined.
I can tell you this. This team will
quickly fall to the bottom of their division until prime top draft picks
mature, like the Nationals did back when they drafted Stephen
Strasburg and Bryce Harper.
Tom Brennan's analysis between the Yanks and Mets affiliates W-L records show just how far this team is off for future growth.
Tom Brennan's analysis between the Yanks and Mets affiliates W-L records show just how far this team is off for future growth.
Potentially the Mets could finish 25
games behind the Nats. How do you close a gap like that in the off-season?
Look… and I’m sorry if I seem to use the
word ‘look’ too often. It’s a word I use when I’m about to say something
negative... there’s a chance that some of the current 25-man members step up
next season. Harvey, Lugo, Montero, Gsellman, Matz, and Wheeler have been
nothing but a disappointment this season on the mound and why should we believe
it’s going to chance any next year?
And there’s no one ready past these
guys. Maybe someone like Corey Oswalt could
help, but he really is a year away and we always see the results of rushing
someone too early (Chris Flexen).
I go up and down my affiliate excel
sheet and I can’t find one name in our top three affiliates (Las Vegas,
Binghamton, St. Lucie) of someone that is guaranteed to be a starter in major
league baseball. Not one. Some have promise and project to get there, but
that’s all at this point.
And trust me… when John Sickles comes out with his 2018 top 30 prospects
list, we won’t have one A or A- rated player in the system on the top three level affiliate teams. I really like what's going on in Kingsport and the DSL with all those guppies that have names I can't pronounce, but there is no guarantee that they will make it all the way to Queens. Think F-Mart.
I could go on, but you get the picture.
We are now years away from rooting for a competitive team and many of you will have your fan loyalty tested.
We are now years away from rooting for a competitive team and many of you will have your fan loyalty tested.
14 comments:
All of these reasons are enough to have warranted kicking Alderson to the curve by now.
The organization does not realize the extent of the damage it has done to its fan base.
A week, month, 1/2 season if winning will be met with far more skepticism than hope and excitement
It is a sad state of affairs. I think our pen will be better next year with the infusion of relievers and Ty Bashlor, but the rest of it looks mostly bleak.
I do think Pete Alonso will be a grade A major leaguer - he has moved so fast in so few at bats - and Corey O keeps putting up great outings, saying "do you believe me now?" but he hasn't faced Daniel Murphy or Stanton yet.
Success in 2018 would be a shocker.
Bob -
Right now the 2018 salaries on the books is $58.5mil.
That included Wright at $20mil and Cespedes at $29mil.
It will be interesting to see how this team is built for 2018. Case in point... you have either Flores, T.J. Rivera, or Cecchini targeted for 2B... do you renew Cabrera for 3B?
Tom -
Good morning.
I disagree about Alonso. I love his bat and I'm thrilled the Mets drafted him as insurance in case Dom Smith goes down (every position needs a backup prospect), but he just doesn't have the glove and feet to play that position at the level needed in the pros.
Mack,
You may disagree about Alonso and I disagree about Flores. It seems no one cared about Murphy's defense all that much as long as he was hitting. I think the multiple partial season demonstrations by Flores show his bat is for real. Pick a position -- 2B or 3B -- and leave him there until his bat demonstrates it's either good enough to withstand his glove or not.
I'm on the fence about Cabrera. On the one hand, with so much money coming off the books, the $6.5 million delta for keeping him is not going to break the bank. However, I don't see that there's room for both he and Jose Reyes in non-starting roles (and I certainly don't want Reyes starting).
I am with Reese on Alonso, his bat leads until his defense excludes.
Also, there is no guarantee that TJ Rivera won't need surgery - I hope he does not - but if he does, lots of time missed in 2018
Reese -
I would vote for a clean break with Cabrera as well as an insurance payout with Wright, which it looks like he is screwing up with his rehabbing to come back this season.
I'm willing to give Flores the nod at 2B. He has 25 HR potential now and can easily make up for some flubs in the field.
Alonso also looks like a potential 20+ HR hitter... I'm just warning about what I said for years about Flores at SS... the feet make the infielder.
Bob, the Mets have lost NYC to the Yanks again - yes, it could be devastating.
My brother is a life-long Mets fan, and said to me yesterday, "if I had to do it over again, I'd be a Yankee fan - I really LIKE their players."
No, I would not bubble-wrap Rosario & Smith to protect them from harm. A 2-month stretch of day-in/day-out ML competition will be invaluable for 2018. Ditto playing Wilmer somewhere consistently. My original choice was 3B thinking consistent reps would help (he had never played the position 3 days in a row until a couple of weeks ago) Now I'm thinking there's little hope there and a consistent 2B exposure would be more useful (...a trade for Beltre is my off-season dream).
Pipeline help is eons away (Gimenez, Lagrange, Terrazas) with maybe a few a half-eon (Nido, Mazeika, Gillorme). The only remote possibilities I see for 2018 in Bashlor & Molina for the pen and with a lights out ST maybe JP in the starting mix. (Sorry VC, but you made it further than Angel Cuan) But given that, tanking is neither an option nor any guarantee of striking gold. Yeah, Wash lucked out with two, back-to-back no-brainer #1's (2009-10) bracketed by a #4 (Zimm, 2005) and #6 (Rendon, 2011), but two #5's & two #6's in 1999-2002 yielded them the immortal Josh Gridley, Justin Wayne, Josh Karp & Clint Everts.
And yes, I see Harvey, Gsellman, Logo, Montero, et. al. as a glass half... OK your the optimist/half-full, pessimist/half-empty joke. My reaction to the mid-level beer stein is "You gonna finish that?"
Hobie -
You summed up well.
The secret here is the below $60mil salary and will the Mets return it to the $150mil needed to compete.
Injures have now demanded another blue chip outfielder (betcha some wish Bruce was back).
Third base and catcher are wide open.
And we need another ++ starter.
All this for starts.
Interesting article on Mickey Jannis in the Post so any possibility he gets some innings in Sept. as another R.A. would be fun.
I'd look to sign BOTH Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, then worry about having too much pitching if it comes to pass. Together they'd cost less than Darvish or Arrieta will get on their own.
Thomas,
I realize that next team looks weaker in the lineup, but the pitching is expected to be much better. Hoping for good recoveries let's start with Syndergaard, DeGrom, and Harvey (let's just be optimistic for now). The Matz/Wheeler tandem can comprise of the fourth spot while Montero could be fifth. IMO, Gsellman needs to go back to Begas to continue pitching and mature a bit, and Lugo needs to find another pitch and have teams not lay on his curve. Signing a starter would be great to slot him at #3/4 and move the tandem down and possibly put Montero in the pen, but Montero doesn't do well in the pen and his starts have shown an improvement.
I agree the bullpen projects to be better (again, optimism).
Now the lineup. While the bats may not impress, do not discount the value of the defensive improvement of having Rosario and not having Cabrera at SS as well as Lagares in CF, and bat him eighth already! When Jim Leyland was managing the Pirates, he had this skinny kid that couldn't hit at SS. Leyland batted him second and made him bunt all the time to teach him bat control. He turned out to be a pretty good player. I'd do that with Rosario. So while a lineup of Nimmo, Rosario, Cespedes, Free Agent 2B/3B, Flores 2B/3B, Smith, Plawecki, Lagares may not be sexy, if this team is fundamentally sound, plays great defense and pitches, it will be in the conversation.
The Free Agent could be Neil Walker or a similar player, or it can be a trade for Adrian Beltre or Josh Donaldson - although paying for Donaldson isn't in my liking. With Conforto coming back in mid-season, the Lagares/Nimmo experiment will only last a few months.
@ TexasGusCC:
Some good optimism there. If it all works that way, like you said, we will be "in the conversation" in 2018. I almost always find that too many "Ifs" add up to disappointment, though. We have a lot of hoping to do between now and opening day 2018.
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