As the Mets wind down the 2017 season, it’s time to reflect on the failures of the season and what changes can be made in 2018 to turn the team’s fortunes back around.
Over the past few seasons, the club has essentially completely ignored the old baseball adage of “having strong defenders up the middle.” Instead focusing on mashing more Home Runs than anyone else and building a pitching staff that mitigates defense by having High K rates.
During the 2015 World Series run, the team produced a +3 Defensive Runs Saved metric. At first glance this reads as though the club had a league average defense, however, from a positional standpoint, there were clear weak spots that reared their ugly heads during the World Series vs the defensively superior Kansas City Royals. At 2B, Daniel Murphy led a group that produced -10 DRS. At SS, Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada combined to produce -26 DRS… which was the worst mark in baseball by an EXTREMELY wide margin. Lastly, the revolving door that was 3B, 5 players combined to produce -14 DRS there.
Alderson took steps to improve this shortcoming for the 2016, bringing in more consistent, albeit still mediocre, defenders for 2B and SS in Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera which led to an improvement of 19 runs. However, the revolving door at 3B got even worse combined with with ill-fated idea of using Yeonis Cespedes as a CF costed them more runs then they gained. Overall the team netted a -13 DRS total for the season... still rather average for the league.
This brings us to 2017…. where injuries and aging based regressions ravaged the team at all levels causing everyone to play out of position at essentially every spot on the diamond. Cabrera at 2B (-6 DRS), Flores and Reyes at 3B (-11 DRS), Cabrera and Reyes at SS (-20 DRS), and the Granderson/Conforto in CF (-11 DRS). Combined the team is the 3rd worst defensive team in baseball… ahead of only the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland A’s.
So how do we fix this for 2018? Well, part of the problem has already been solved with the promotions of SS Amed Rosario and 1B Dominic Smith. Both are well regarded and viewed as above average to superior defenders at their respective positons. There are 2 other things that, in my opinion, need to be done to fully fix the problem.
A) Play Juan Lagares Regardless of His Offensive Output.
- The average stat line for Center Fielders in 2017 is a .266 AVG with an .772 OPS with a +5 DRS metric. Lagares is never going to be able to match the power production of other CFs in the league but he can at least hold his own in the AVG department as his current .261 AVG in 2017, and career mark of .260 AVG, both match up close to the MLB for the position. What Lagares brings to the table is the ability to FAR outproduce the league average for DRS. Presently, Lagares is averaging +26 DRS! each season during his 5-year career.
That mark outperforms every single player during those 5 years except for 2 guys, Kevin Kiermaier in 2015 (+42 DRS) and Carlos Gomez in 2013 (+38). While Gomez was All-World in his season…. Kiermaier’s offensive stat line wasn’t THAT impressive with a .263 AVG and a .718 OPS, BOTH of which were below the MLB average for the position. Yet, even with just that “OK” offensive line, Kiermaier was worth +7.3 Wins Above Replacement level won a Gold Glove AND received MVP votes.
B) Stop the Revolving Door at 3B
- Please, forget about David Wright! For the sake of the team, move on as if he is never going to play a single inning ever again. I say this because, even when David was around during 2015 and 2016, his defensive play had taken a severe downturn as he produced back to back seasons of -8 DRS at 3B. Even if he looks like he could return in 2018, the team needs to act as if he is nothing more than an expensive lefty mashing bench piece. Now…as for his replacement… there are 3 reasonable routes I can see the club going.
- Sign Free Agent 3B Mike Moustakas
First, let’s preface this with the following, Moustakas is not a “good” defender. Just like when the club brought in Walker to replace Murphy, you’re essentially bringing in a consistent average defender to fill a spot that has been horrendous thus netting you a solid gain. Second, this is the most expensive option on the table. Moustakas is the midst of his best offensive season in his career and is going to be paid accordingly in free agency. The most recent large 3B signings are Pablo Sandoval’s 5 year/$95M and Hanley Ramirez’s 4 year/$88M contracts, both signed 3 years ago. With that in mind…. I would take a strong guess that it would require at least a 5 year/$120M contract ($24M AAV) to sign him.
- Trade for 3B Adrian Beltre
This is a more unique approach, that I think the team should consider. For 2018, Beltre will be in the final year of his contract for $18M and is currently displeased with the potential of a rebuild occurring in Texas. Back on August 2nd in an interview with the Dallas Morning News, Beltre said, “At this stage of my career, I’m not here for a rebuild.” Even at 38 years old, Beltre still posts double digit positive DRS numbers and still churns out .300 AVG, .850+ OPS seasons. In addition, with the team getting younger, it would be wise to bring in a big-name veteran who can be an asset in the clubhouse and a mentor for the young position players coming up. In addition, should the move work out well, the team could offer Beltre a Qualifying Offer for 2019 and potentially pick up a draft pick.
- Exercise Asdrubal Cabrera’s 2018 Option
If the club thinks that being a full-time 3B would help Cabrera improve his defensive numbers, then this would be the most conservative and the most cost efficient move. A healthy Asdrubal Cabrera is still a solid contributor in any team’s line-up as he is still capable of posting .270 AVG, .775 OPS numbers which is right around where the average MLB 3B is right now. At only $8.5M, choosing this option would allow Alderson to invest more money into the bullpen or more depth in the starting rotation.
Improving this team’s defense to a unit that can produce league average to above average results will easily be enough to at least get this team back to being an over .500 winning percentage group. From there, it’s up to the pitching rotation to remain healthy and effective to get them from a 81-81 team to a 90-72 or better playoff caliber team.
11 comments:
I don't have any idea what to do at 3B. Moutsakis will be too long-term and overpriced in a weak FA market. Beltre isn't a terrible option, with the advantage that it's only a one year commitment. I hate the idea of bringing Cabrera back, though he's mashed lefties this year, and maybe his range is a non-issue at 3B, so it could work out better than I think it might. In any case, I think this team needs to keep some powder dry for the '19 FA class, which looks like it will be far superior. SS and 1B are set (let's hope that's all to the good) and the corner OF spots. I think I'd be happy with Lagares taking the majority of starts in CF. I have a feeling there's more in there offensively, and his defense would be a godsend, particularly with a LF that hates to run. I do want to get Flores' bat in the lineup every day, and despite the way he's being used, I see 2B as his best position. Yes, you give up defense, but the kid could easily go .300/25/90, so, if we're improving at 1B, SS, 3B(hopefully), and CF, I'll live with a negative defender at one spot in exchange. Catcher is the other position that could use an upgrade, but I see them going with the Plaw/TdA combo for one more season, possibly splitting the position equally to start, if Plaw has a good final month in the bigs.
100% in agreement with you Adam.
Personally I would try and grab Beltre from the Rangers....I feel like he would be a perfect fit in the lineup, in the field, and in the clubhouse.
Plus he brings that Bartolo-esque entertainment factor to Citi Field.
Perfectly ok with Flores as the full time 2B with rangy guys at SS and 1B. Especially when considering....
According to the math I've done in regards to DRS by position by team vs winning percentage by team.....there is 0 to a slightly NEGATIVE correlation between good defensive 2B and winning teams.
I know I'm in the minority here, but if you go defensive minded up the middle, I could live with Wilmer Flores at 3B if the manager let him play consistently at one spot long enough to master it.
Chris, I like your solid look at the quandary of defense for this team.
I like the idea of one year of Beltre - except he may want 2 years, as I am comparing him to Bartolo after his first Mets year.
I do like a platoon (50-50 at bats) of Lagares and Nimmo in CF as of right now. Ideally, each start 90 games, and each of Conforto and Cespedes start 150.
Aside from defense, I have articles coming out on Thursday and Friday about a truly baffling problem plaguing the Mets - at least that I find baffling. Look forward to your input on those.
@Thomas
Bit of confusion from your comment....Beltre is already under contract for 2018. He wont have a choice of getting a 2nd year.
I am wholly against a CF platoon involving Nimmo due to the fact that I do not see him as a capable regular defensively out there. Having seen him in Binghamton he's similar to Conforto.....could play there if needed....but he'll be clearly below average.
A Beltre trade would be expensive as far as prospects are concerned. This is a possible future HOF player so to think you will get him cheap is wishful thinking.
Cabrera is supposed to be toxic in the clubhouse so why bring him back?
Flores at 3B? who knows, maybe in time but the Imbecile will not give him enough time there for the Mets to know one way or the other. Right now, he doesn't look good there.
How about Neil Walker on a 1 year plus team option if he fails to get the years he wants because teams are worried about his health? Maybe, just maybe he falls to the Mets and Flores / TJ man 2B with Flores playing some 1B as well.
Flip Lugo for Joey Gallo to play 3B?
I really want the Mets to go after Machado as a FA. But the Yankees need a 3B too and Mets are too cheap anyway.
@Viper
I think you are mistaken on the potential trade values for Beltre vs Gallo.
Considering Beltre is in the final year of his contract vs 5 additional years of control for Gallo....Gallo would be WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY more expensive to acquire than Beltre.
So if you think Gallo can be had for Lugo....then the price for Beltre would be some unknown DSL or GCL level SP
Christopher, I was going to suggest Matz but he is heading for his yearly surgery. Lugo also has 5 years of control and aside from 35 hrs for Gallo, his other numbers avg of 205 with 152 strikeouts in 410 at bats are not great. But you're right, Lugo is not enough.
Beltre on the other hand is a HOF in waiting. 459 hrs, over 3000 hits batting 308/383/540, stellar defense, team leader. I would take Beltre over this current Gallo anytime. With Beltre you just have to make sure not to touch his head.
@Viper
Right...thus why I think he's a perfect fit.
He certainly wont be cheap....but I think he could be had for 2 prospect package.
I would say OF Wuilmer Becerra (who is clogging up a 40 man spot and is definitely on trade watch alert) + a P like Corey Oswalt could be a decent starting point.
Personally Im against Moustakas. Hes having a career year and next year you could spend a bit more money and get machado, who would crush in new york. I dont think he goes tot he yankees if they are going to go after harper, personally. But i do agree that the Mets need to stop with this all offense no defense theory, if just from an enjoyment perspective, there is nothing that makes a fan turn off a tv faster then watching your team make error after error. Not sure who is out there for a single year that plays good enuough defense at third.
the mets could also use one of those back up catchers who can both throw people out and police the pitching staff, the david ross/ jeff mathis type. who might suck but gets pitchers to be better.
Im fine with the ces-larages/nimmo-conforto outfield.
I don't think the Yankees will go after Harper. Their outfield is full now and they need to find an everyday spot for Frazier so where would Harper play unless he plays 1B?
Machado, on the other hand, is a player the Yankees and Mets need. If you're Machado and with both offers being close, you choose Yankees over Mets. Better run organization, better owners who spend money, better GM and manager.
Or does he go for door #2. Badly run organization, cheap owners, Genius GM in his won mind and Imbecile in the dugout?
Hard choice huh?
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