8/30/17

Reese Kaplan -- What to Do With the 40-Man Roster


The Mets have a great many 40-man roster decisions to make in the coming off-season, including removing from the 40-man roster players who are not performing at a level necessary to be competitive.  While some of them are likely to be lost in the waiver/outrighting process, reader Hobie suggested that a discussion should be started about who should and shouldn’t be a part of the protected group of players come 2018.

First, let’s look at who is currently on the 40 man roster.  Remember that the people on the 60-day DL do not count against it though may have to be temporarily added back until their 2018 DL status is clarified.  Take Michael Conforto, for example.  He is on the 10-day DL now and depending on the outcome of the likely surgery the Mets will have to decide if he’s going to be out all of April and May.  If so, he can be pushed onto the 60-day DL and thus open up another roster spot. 

PITCHERS
POS
RP
L
L
33
RP
R
R
28
SP
L
R
29
RP
R
R
27
SP
R
R
23
RP
R
R
28
SP
R
R
27
SP
L
L
30
RP
R
R
26
RP
R
R
30
RP
R
R
27
RP
R
R
27
RP
L
L
28

CATCHERS
POS
C
R
R
28
C
R
R
26

INFIELDERS
POS
SS
B
R
31
2B
R
R
23
3B
R
R
26
SS
B
R
34
SS
R
R
26
SS
R
R
21
1B
L
L
22

OUTFIELDERS
POS
CF
R
R
28
CF
L
R
24
RF
R
R
28

DISABLED LIST
POS
LF
R
R
31
LF
L
R
24
SP
R
R
28
SP
R
L
26
3B
R
R
28
SP
L
R
24
SP
L
R
27
3B
R
R
34

MINORS
POS
RF
R
R
22
SP
R
R
24
RP
R
R
25
SP
R
R
22
C
R
R
23
RP
L
R
27
RP
R
R
24

Where it starts to get complicated when making roster decisions are the arcane rules regarding minor league players who must either be placed on the 40 man roster or risk losing them in the Rule V draft.  The specific rule states that a player who was 18 or younger on the June 5th before he signs his first pro contract can spend 5 years in the minors before he’s either added to the 40 man roster or exposed to the Rule V draft.  If the player was over age 18 then it’s four years. 

That being said, the Mets need to look at some of their better performing minor leaguers to determine who falls into those categories and whether or not they want to allocate a 40-man roster spot to them.  For practical purposes, I’ll only dip down as far as AA since it’s unlikely other clubs would pluck someone from A ball and keep him on the roster for the entire season.  A few names to consider:

  • Jamie Callahan
  • Ben Griset
  • Luis Guillorme
  • Matt Oberste
  • Corey Oswalt
  • Champ Stuart
  • Kevin Taylor
  • Adonis Uceta


So who on the current 40-man roster has a spot that could be in jeopardy?  I would suggest the following:

  • Wuilmer Becerra
  • Asdrubal Cabrera
  • Chasen Bradford
  • Erik Goeddel
  • Robert Gsellman
  • Tommy Milone
  • Hansel Robles
  • Kevin McGowan
  • Rafael Montero
  • Tyler Pill
  • Jose Reyes
  • Josh Smoker
  • Travis Taijeron


Who is expected to be both healthy and a lock to make the 2018 40-man roster barring trades:

  • Jerry Blevins
  • Gavin Cecchini
  • Yoenis Cespedes
  • Travis d’Arnaud
  • Jacob de Grom
  • Jeurys Familia
  • Chris Flexen
  • Wilmer Flores
  • Matt Harvey
  • Juan Lagares
  • Seth Lugo
  • Brandon Nimmo
  • Kevin Plawecki
  • A.J. Ramos
  • Amed Rosario
  • Matt Reynolds
  • Paul Sewald
  • Dom Smith
  • Noah Syndergaard


Who is hurt and may or may not be on the 60-day DL?

  • Michael Conforto
  • Steve Matz
  • T.J. Rivera
  • Zack Wheeler
  • David Wright


So, by my count you have 18 sure things, let’s be optimistic and say 3 of the 5 in the 60-day DL column make the roster, so that’s 21.  That leaves 19 spaces for people to take.  For purposes of this exercise I’m going to arbitrarily limit it to 15 to allow room for up to 4 external acquisitions this off-season (assuming the GM in charge does not repeat the Sandy Alderson mistake of the previous off-season). 

Of the list of the people in jeopardy and the people in the minors you may need to protect I would go with the following:

  • Gerson Bautista (A Ball) – major egg on the face if one of the guys obtained for Reed leaves as a minor league FA or is picked in the Rule V draft
  • Chasen Bradford
  • Jamie Callahan – already in AAA
  • Erik Goeddel
  • Ben Griset – very nice numbers for his career and must be added or exposed
  • Robert Gsellman – forget this year and remember last year (and his body of work)
  • Luis Guillorme – defensive whiz with a career AVG around .282
  • Jeff McNeill – another T.J. Rivera type who just keeps hitting
  • Rafael Montero – out of options and should make the team or be traded
  • Corey Oswalt – needs to be added or exposed
  • Jose Reyes – fan favorite should be re-signed as a UTILITY player, not a starter
  • Jacob Rhame
  • Josh Smoker
  • David Roseboom – toss out his injury plagued year in Las Vegas and check out his numbers
  • Adonis Uceta – shutdown performance after being converted to the pen

That still leaves room for other currently injured players or acquisitions.  Who do you think should go and who should be added?

12 comments:

Natale DiDonato said...

I believe the 60 day DL designation must be removed prior to the Rule V draft. DL status is not reinstated until opening day or shortly before. Also, I hate to give up Robles. Upside is much better than Goeddel who passed through waivers before. He will probably pass again.

Tom Brennan said...

Bradford no for 40 man. Bashlor instead if he needs to be (may not have enough time yet)

No on Smoker. Yes on Drew Smith, if he needs Rule 5 protection (think not)

I'd probably add Phil Evans and drop Smoker or Bradford, assuming Bashlor or Smith don't need 40 man yet.

Mack Ade said...

Great minds think alike...

I will post the entire list of eligible free agents the day after the season ends, and the entire list of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft, on Monday's Morning Report

Robb said...

whispers, if you look at the 5 relievers sandy acquired they look pretty good in the stat line sss of course.

Callahan and Shame should get called up on sept 1, even if it means cutting some dead wood. Also i think theres got to be an outfielder brought up.

This is a very good piece.

Hobie said...

Nice summary Reese.

39 on that list if I counted correctly. Wright will retire and at least one of Cabrera/Reyes go (I topic for another day). That's three slots.

Uceta, Bashlor (if Rule 5 eligible--I read he was) and Guillorme are my first three for those slots.

Then consider DFA'ing (in order):
Pill, Milone, Geoddel, Smoker, Beccera, Bradford, Taijerone

For protecting (in priority order):
Callahan, T.Peterson, Oswalt, Terrazaz! (yep, eligible),Rosenbloom, L.Taylor, Boyd/McNeil (pick 'em)

I'm more apt to expose a position player because of the the 25-man requirement of a drafter. Guillorme & Terrazaz are special to me, however, and so so the very slight risk of losing them trumps the somewhat greater risk of losing a Beccera or Taijerone.

Eddie from Corona said...

Great article ...
First guy i thought of was Matt Reynolds... AAAA player needs to go... Cabrera & Reyes both gone too... If we have issues with the 40 man there is no room for them at all...
Robles is the toughest for me... Has had his moment and still a live arm... Flip of a coin...
Montero has had his chances, cant be upset if he is picked up and does well elsewhere...
Becca has to be removed... The dickey deal doesn't seem as overwhelming as it once was...
Oswalt, Uceta, Bashlor and Guillorme are a must and the relievers who cam over in the dead line deals as well...
Some touch choices on the rest...


Tom Brennan said...

Unlike in past years prior to the recent trades, this year's 40 man roster assemblage dance should be far easier. Sadly, less talent to protect.

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

One thing...

EVERYONE comes off the DL at the end of the season and the 60-day DL people count towards the 40 at that point

macleanw said...

Why would you protect Reyes, he is a FA? You wouldn't protect him until you re-sign right? That would certainly be after Rule 5.

Reese Kaplan said...

After the season they can drop various people and lose people who are free agents. I know about the DL people coming back onto the roster. I was writing with an eye towards April of 2018 when you are deciding then who is going to be part of the people on the official 40-man roster when the season starts. Sorry, I should have been clearer in that regard.

Tom Brennan said...

Mickey Jannis has been impersonating RA Dickey lately. He might need to be on the 40 man.

TexasGusCC said...

The Entire List for this upcoming offseason of players I feel should be considered and are eligible to be drafted:

Callahan
McNeil
Roseboom
Urena
Bashlor
Guillorme
Knapp
Oswalt
Peterson
Uceta
Bautista
Sanchez – a stretch but he’s a catcher

Four candidates to come off are Becerra, Taijeron, Pill, and Milone.

Syndergaard and Wright are currently on the 60 day DL, but the Mets only have 38 on the 40-man, so we don’t have to worry about making space. There are no DL players after the season.

This may not be so easy this coming winter. The credit for the research goes to:

http://tpgmets.blogspot.com/p/rule-5.html