Reese Kaplan -- What to Do With the 40-Man Roster

The Mets have a great many 40-man roster decisions to make in the coming off-season, including removing from the 40-man roster players who are not performing at a level necessary to be competitive.  While some of them are likely to be lost in the waiver/outrighting process, reader Hobie suggested that a discussion should be started about who should and shouldn’t be a part of the protected group of players come 2018.

First, let’s look at who is currently on the 40 man roster.  Remember that the people on the 60-day DL do not count against it though may have to be temporarily added back until their 2018 DL status is clarified.  Take Michael Conforto, for example.  He is on the 10-day DL now and depending on the outcome of the likely surgery the Mets will have to decide if he’s going to be out all of April and May.  If so, he can be pushed onto the 60-day DL and thus open up another roster spot. 

PITCHERS
NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE
Jerry Blevins	RP	L	L	33
Chasen Bradford	RP	R	R	28
Jacob deGrom	SP	L	R	29
Jeurys Familia	RP	R	R	27
Chris Flexen	SP	R	R	23
Erik Goeddel	RP	R	R	28
Seth Lugo	SP	R	R	27
Tommy Milone	SP	L	L	30
Rafael Montero	RP	R	R	26
AJ Ramos	RP	R	R	30
Hansel Robles	RP	R	R	27
Paul Sewald	RP	R	R	27
Josh Smoker	RP	L	L	28
CATCHERS
NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE
Travis d'Arnaud	C	R	R	28
Kevin Plawecki	C	R	R	26
INFIELDERS
NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE
Asdrubal Cabrera	SS	B	R	31
Gavin Cecchini	2B	R	R	23
Wilmer Flores	3B	R	R	26
Jose Reyes	SS	B	R	34
Matt Reynolds	SS	R	R	26
Amed Rosario	SS	R	R	21
Dominic Smith	1B	L	L	22
OUTFIELDERS
NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE
Juan Lagares	CF	R	R	28
Brandon Nimmo	CF	L	R	24
Travis Taijeron	RF	R	R	28
DISABLED LIST
NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE
Yoenis Cespedes DL10	LF	R	R	31
Michael Conforto DL10	LF	L	R	24
Matt Harvey DL10	SP	R	R	28
Steven Matz DL10	SP	R	L	26
T.J. Rivera DL10	3B	R	R	28
Noah Syndergaard DL60	SP	L	R	24
Zack Wheeler DL10	SP	L	R	27
David Wright DL60	3B	R	R	34
MINORS
NAME	POS	BAT	THW	AGE
Wuilmer Becerra	RF	R	R	22
Robert Gsellman	SP	R	R	24
Kevin McGowan	RP	R	R	25
Marcos Molina	SP	R	R	22
Tomas Nido	C	R	R	23
Tyler Pill	RP	L	R	27
Jacob Rhame	RP	R	R	24

Where it starts to get complicated when making roster decisions are the arcane rules regarding minor league players who must either be placed on the 40 man roster or risk losing them in the Rule V draft.  The specific rule states that a player who was 18 or younger on the June 5^th before he signs his first pro contract can spend 5 years in the minors before he’s either added to the 40 man roster or exposed to the Rule V draft.  If the player was over age 18 then it’s four years. 

That being said, the Mets need to look at some of their better performing minor leaguers to determine who falls into those categories and whether or not they want to allocate a 40-man roster spot to them.  For practical purposes, I’ll only dip down as far as AA since it’s unlikely other clubs would pluck someone from A ball and keep him on the roster for the entire season.  A few names to consider:

• Jamie Callahan
• Ben Griset
• Luis Guillorme
• Matt Oberste
• Corey Oswalt
• Champ Stuart
• Kevin Taylor
• Adonis Uceta

So who on the current 40-man roster has a spot that could be in jeopardy?  I would suggest the following:

• Wuilmer Becerra
• Asdrubal Cabrera
• Chasen Bradford
• Erik Goeddel
• Robert Gsellman
• Tommy Milone
• Hansel Robles
• Kevin McGowan
• Rafael Montero
• Tyler Pill
• Jose Reyes
• Josh Smoker
• Travis Taijeron

Who is expected to be both healthy and a lock to make the 2018 40-man roster barring trades:

• Jerry Blevins
• Gavin Cecchini
• Yoenis Cespedes
• Travis d’Arnaud
• Jacob de Grom
• Jeurys Familia
• Chris Flexen
• Wilmer Flores
• Matt Harvey
• Juan Lagares
• Seth Lugo
• Brandon Nimmo
• Kevin Plawecki
• A.J. Ramos
• Amed Rosario
• Matt Reynolds
• Paul Sewald
• Dom Smith
• Noah Syndergaard

Who is hurt and may or may not be on the 60-day DL?

• Michael Conforto
• Steve Matz
• T.J. Rivera
• Zack Wheeler
• David Wright

So, by my count you have 18 sure things, let’s be optimistic and say 3 of the 5 in the 60-day DL column make the roster, so that’s 21.  That leaves 19 spaces for people to take.  For purposes of this exercise I’m going to arbitrarily limit it to 15 to allow room for up to 4 external acquisitions this off-season (assuming the GM in charge does not repeat the Sandy Alderson mistake of the previous off-season). 

Of the list of the people in jeopardy and the people in the minors you may need to protect I would go with the following:

• Gerson Bautista (A Ball) – major egg on the face if one of the guys obtained for Reed leaves as a minor league FA or is picked in the Rule V draft
• Chasen Bradford
• Jamie Callahan – already in AAA
• Erik Goeddel
• Ben Griset – very nice numbers for his career and must be added or exposed
• Robert Gsellman – forget this year and remember last year (and his body of work)
• Luis Guillorme – defensive whiz with a career AVG around .282
• Jeff McNeill – another T.J. Rivera type who just keeps hitting
• Rafael Montero – out of options and should make the team or be traded
• Corey Oswalt – needs to be added or exposed
• Jose Reyes – fan favorite should be re-signed as a UTILITY player, not a starter
• Jacob Rhame
• Josh Smoker
• David Roseboom – toss out his injury plagued year in Las Vegas and check out his numbers
• Adonis Uceta – shutdown performance after being converted to the pen

That still leaves room for other currently injured players or acquisitions.  Who do you think should go and who should be added?