Good
morning.
Predicting
what minor player will be assigned to what team is not an exact science, but
you can rely on two things:
1. Players that play well at one level
will start the season at the next level up the ladder.
and…
2. Projected prospect stars, even if
they card out above par, will get another shot at either the same level they
played, or one up if management believes they can handle the promotion.
This post
is the third in a series of predicted roster leaders for the start of 2020.
There will be plenty of other players. Some that didn’t fare that well in 2019.
Some that haven’t been drafted yet. But these guys are the meat and potatoes of
our system right now.
We
covered the 2020 GCL Mets and Kingsport the past two Sundays.
Next up…
the 2020 Brooklyn Cyclones
Low-A
Brooklyn:
RHSP Nathan Jones – Most of
this teams opening day rotation will come in the June 2020 draft, but Jones
looks to be the anchor here. The 22/yr. old Jones was a 5th round
pick this year out of Northwestern State University and had 7 starts this past
season for the Cyclones (0-2, 6.59), but he raised the bar when he pitched
spectacular ball of Brooklyn in this year’s playoff.
RHSP Josh Wolf – Many want
Wolf to be bumped to St. Lucie next opening day, but, in my opinion, the
19-year old didn’t progress as far as
his draft buddy, Matt Allen. Wolf pitched a mere 8 innings for the GCL-Mets,
going 3.18 with 12-Ks. I’ve move him up but only this far.
RHSP Michel Otanez – The good
news is Otonez went 3.24 in 14 starts with 70-Ks in 62.1-IP for combined
Kingsport and Brooklyn. The bad news he did this as a 22/yr. old. Still, I would not open him up higher than
this level. We can move him to Columbia if he starts well here or if there is
an opening there.
RHRP Jared Biddy – We really
didn’t know anything about this kid before he arrived. The 22/yr. old un-drafted
FA pitched for three teams this year with lights out results (18-appearances,
0.86, 0.86, 35-Ks in 31-IP). I’m going to send him back to the team where he
had the most games pitched (14, 0.96, 0.93). Could be a diamond in the rough.
RHRP – Josh Hejka – another
un-drafted FA, this 22/yr. old went scoreless in 11-appearances for Kingsport (0.00,
0.72, 8-IP, 10-K) and 2.25, 1.33 in 11 more appearances for Brooklyn. Notice
the bump up in both earned run average but also WHIP. Let’s send Hejka back to
Coney to work on that.
RHRP Reyson Santos – Santos
plaed 2019 as a 20/yr. old Latin FA. He pitched in 22 games this past year for
Kingsport (2.45, 1.14, 22-IP, 28-K) and 2 games for Brooklyn (0.00, 1.00, 2-IP,
5-K, 22.50-K/9). His pro K/9, including his 2018 year in the DSL, is 10.88). He
also had 8 saves in 11 games for K-Port. We must keep an eye on this kid.
RHRP Dan Goggin – The 17th
round pick last year played as a 22/yr. old and put up modest numbers for this
team (15-G, 2-ST, 2-1, 2.81, 1.28, 31-IP, 38-K). I want to see more from this
guy before I promote him to a full season team.
C Francisco Alvarez – Alvarez
may someday hold the future of this team in his hands. I have him as the
current number one prospect in the system. 2019 was the first pro season for
the 17/yr.old and they couldn’t keep the reigns on him at the GCL-Mets level (26-AB,
.426). He moved up to Kingsport (131-AB) and hit .282. His ‘raw power’ tag
seems to be accurate. Hit 7 home runs so far at 17. Franny turned pro with a
bad rep as a defender, but, so far, he’s playing just fine. Projected to remain
at catcher if they can keep the cheeseburgers away from him (5’11”, already
220-LBS).
C Andres Regnault – (eligible
for the 2020 Rule 5 Draft) – Regnault would be receiving much more press if he
wasn’t watching on the same team that Alvarez is playing. Luckily, there is a
DH system in the lower levels and both can play in the same game. The 20-year
old hit .292 for Kingsport in his 4th professional season, which
ranked him 9th in the league, tied for 6th in home runs,
and 8th in slugging. Frankly,
I don’t expect him to survive the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
SS Branden Fryman – Another
2019 draft pick (19th round), in the Mets were determined to get
Woody’s son. They first drafted him in
2016 but Fryman passed for three years at Samford. Injuries has caused very
little 2019 playtime, but he still hit .356/.397/.424/.821 in 59 at-bats. Could
wind up at second base.
SS Angel Manzanarez – It’s
hard to predict the 2020 future for Angel. He played Brooklyn in 2018 (.274)
but, due to injuries, he only had 35 at-bats for combined Kingsport-Brooklyn.
He did hit a combined .286 so I would bring him back to Brooklyn, even if it’s
for a utility role.
3B Brett Baty – If Alvarez is
a future All-Star in the making, Baty should be standing right next to him. And
Jaylen Palmer isn’t going to be happy with my bumping Baty to Brooklyn. He did
hit only .234 for three teams, including 10 at-bats for the Cyclones. He also
only hit a total of 7 home runs. Still, there is blue blood running through
this prospect and Brooklyn will be his first chance to shine as a non-teenager.
The card on Baty is ‘elite raw power’. I sure hope we see it in 2020.
3B Jaylen Palmer – The 19/yr.
old had a good season in 2019 for Kingsport (7-HRs, .260) after a much better
on in 2018 for the GCL-Mets (.310). The power is starting to peek out and 2020
could be a year he establishes himself in the chain. Could be the fact that he
grew from 5’5” to 6’3”. Look for the Mets to move him to second base.
OF Zach Ashford – I need your
help placing this 22/yr. old 6th pick in last year’s draft player on
opening day. He hit .295 (129-AB) for the GCL Mets, then .136 for Brooklyn
(59-AB) and, for some reason, hit .353 in 17 at-bats for St. Lucie. I pick
Brooklyn but it’s your call.
OF Scott Ota – This 10th
round draft pick had a decent season for Kingsport last season. The left hand
slugger hit .273/.355/.519/.875, in 183 at-bats for Kingsport. More important,
he slugged 7 home runs and was ranked 4th in league slugging and 5th
in OPS. He has earned a promotion.
OF Ranfry Adon - (eligible for
the 2020 Rule 5 Draft) – The 23-year old Adon had his first Mets season in 2015
for the DSL teams. His best year was 2018 where he hit .295 for Kingsport. This
past season, he hit .270 for Brooklyn in only 137-at bats. He could be promoted
to Columbia, depending on the draft, but I would bring him back to the Cyclones
for the first half of the season.
12 comments:
Mack – my guess is that many of the pitchers will go to St. Lucie or Columbia to start next year as they follow the Kevin Smith model, 12 games – 23 innings in Brooklyn in 2018, Started at St. Lucie in 2019.
As far as Brett Baty, I
I am hoping the Mets start in St. Lucie or Columbia.
John -
I used to be much more aggressive when I predicted where players would wind up, only to be shot down by the chronically conservative approach that te Mets took regarding minor league players.
The new guys in charge of our minor league players are showing some hints (Francisco Alvarez) that they will first recognize talent when they make this decision.
You could be right regarding all your desires but I will stay conservative until I see a more definitive change in the organization, not just a random player or two.
Regarding Baty, you could be right. There is no one in his way because Mark Vientos will move to St. Lucie, but my guess is the Mets will want to see a little more bat out of this ++ prospect.
My guess is Alvarez and Baty for Columbia, Alvarez following the glide path of Mauricio, and Bats, due to his strike out rate, definitely not being pushed straight to St Lucie.
Wolf? Just because he wasn't bumped at year end, it seems we have too little to go on as to whether he goes to Brooklyn or Columbia. Simeon Woods Richardson pitched little in the GCL one year but then was bumped to Columbia
I thought Regnault would have another year before Rule 5.
Regnault info from my Rule 5 expert, Chris, from tpgmets.blogspot.com
I don't follow the minors as closely as others here, so I can't offer opinions on individuals, but I like the approach of moving them up to be tested at higher levels.
I do have a question, though, for Tom, Mack, John and others:
As I understand it, players on short - season teams pitch in EXST until their seasons start, except for a few who start off at Columbia. In either case, they're pitching somewhere before June.
The question is, how do you guys look at a player and decide where he should start his season until Kingsport and Brooklyn open?
Bill
I don't base it on anything done in extended camp.
I use a combo of what and where they did from the previos season and the flow charts of the minor league rosters.
Mack, Reganult is a 4 year guy, sinned at 16 or 17 - Rule 5 eligibility is "A player must have signed when they were 19 years or older and played professional baseball for four years are eligible. Players who signed at 18 and have played five years are also eligible."
So, it looks like Regnault has another year. If so, he has to jump to Columbia in 2020.
Bill, I agree with Mack - I can't picture extended spring training competition being the equivalent of real games for growth.
I know that, but it wasn't my question. I was asking how you decide if you think a player should go to EXST vs Columbia before the short-season begins.
Bill
I would think you would first determine your first choices for the short season teams which will be heavily influenced by DSL promotions and draft picks.
Yes, but if it's decided that Player A will play at K'port and Player B at Brooklyn, how do you decide where they will play before June? EXST vs SAL.
Nice write up, Mack.
If our "lower levels" pipeline is legitimate, it bodes well for the middle level teams in our system.
I hope that our system starts to mirror those of other contending teams, like Boston, Houston and Atlanta.
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