9/24/19

Tom Brennan - YET ANOTHER - WORTHWHILE - LOOK AT EDWIN DIAZ AND JEFF MCNEIL

4 comments

If you're a Mets fan, you know who Edwin and Jeff are.  

In case you aren't:

Edwin is Edwin Diaz, the Mets' struggling bullpen pitcher with the lethal arm.

Jeff is Jeff McNeil, a player whom I frequently write about.  And will, briefly, again today.


First, Diaz.  

Before I talk about Diaz, let's digress:

Maybe you've heard of Apple, the phone giant.

In December, 2008, Apple stock dropped to as low as $10.64.  People hated it and were dumping it hand over fist. 

"Why, just a year earlier, it had peaked at $28.99. GET RID OF IT!!!!  NOW!!!!"

Many did, with a sense of relief after the plunge from $28.99 to $10.64.

Except, this past week, Apple stock closed at just under $220, twenty times higher than when it was $10.64.

The folks who sold at $10.64 and never bought back in to Apple stock probably don't want to think about that one.

I have said it before, I will say it again: 

I would keep Edwin this off season.  

He is $10.64 right now, but next season, he could be near $220.

He's had some real doozies this year, no dispute there.

Thru Sunday, in the 18 games where he has allowed runs, he has allowed many indeed: 

35 runs in 15 innings, going 0-7 with 4 saves in 10 opportunities.  In the worst 9 games, he surrendered 26 runs.  Awful.

But in the 45 games he did not allow a run, he threw 40 innings, fanned 71, and saved 21 games.

I could be wrong, but I think only the Freak, Josh Hader, fans more hitters per 9 innings than Edwin.

And other than in the worst 9 games, where he surrendered 2 or more runs, in his other 54 games, which covers 85% of his games, he surrendered only 9 runs.

Numbers don't tell the whole story, as I am as aware as you are that he is perhaps more responsible than anyone with the Mets' current extreme likelihood to miss the 2019 playoffs, but those 9 big blow-outs killed his ERA, and many fans look at that high ERA as added proof that: 

"HE HAS TO GO.  EVEN A BAG OF BEANS IS GOOD ENOUGH.  ARRGGHH!!!!  GET RID OF APPLE...ERR...I MEAN DIAZ IMMEDIATELY!"  

I say: WRONG.

Lethal Arms Don't Grow On Trees.  

Keep him.  Hope it is a one year aberration.

If he falters next year, then trade him.  Perhaps.

Lastly, for the Edwin haters, he has had 4 great outings in his last 5 games, and one so-so one.  This is a sign that tells me, and ought to tell you:

DON'T BAIL ON EDWIN DIAZ.


MOVING ON TO MCNEIL:

First, I do write about him a lot, and that will be stopping (or slowing a lot).  Did I just hear applause?  Anyway:

Many fans are disappointed at his drop pretty much out of the batting title race, for which he is now (absent a torrid week of hitting) just a long shot.

After all, he hit .349 before the All Star Break, just .273 since, thru Sunday.

League catching up to him?  No.

Jeff is the Transformer.

Before the All Star Break, in 76 games, he had 41 runs scored, 36 RBIs, and 7 HRs in 289 ABs.

After the All Star Break, in just 54 games, he has 41 runs scored, 37 RBIs, and 16 HRs in just 209 ABs (just 72% of the number of pre-All Star at bats).

It seems he's transformed his game from slap hitter to premier power hitter.

Stay with me here.  Do the math - easier - I'll do it for you: 

Three times those 54 post-All Star games is 162 games, the number of games in a full season.

Triple Jeff's 54 game stats to project over 162 games, you get: 

48 HRs, 111 RBIs and 123 runs scored.  Willie Stargell #'s.

Maybe the transformation to power hitter isn't permanent, but it sure is impressive.  

Jeff is: THE TRANSFORMER.

That's all I have to say today.  LGM.





4 comments:

Mack Ade said...

I am not ready to give up on Diaz.

As for the other guy... We will keep him too. :)

John From Albany said...

I am not ready to give up on Diaz but when does he become Mel Rojas?

Eddie Corona said...

Mcneil should be the captain... He doesnt hit the HR's that Alonso does but he is probably every bit of a leader...

He is more Jeter than Wright... and as such have the Captaincy

Mike Freire said...

I agree, Tom....keep Diaz!

He is still pretty cheap, so there is no pressure there (yet). I wonder if the baseball has anything to do withi it? It is common knowledge that HR"s are WAY up, but I read somewhere that the stitches are also flatter then in the past. It supposedly makes throwing breaking pitches more difficult (like Noah's slider, or Diaz's for that matter).

Maybe the ball goes back to normal next year?

Oh and I think McNeil is definitely part of our core moving forward. The bump in power numbers is very Daniel Murphy like, or perhaps Justin Turner?

Let's hope we keep this one.

Mack's Mets © 2012