Mike Freire - Playoff Update (Part 2)


This is a follow up to an article that I put together last week, regarding the ongoing playoff races in MLB.  Since that time, there have been some significant changes to include our very own Mets falling a bit further behind (their chances have dwindled to single digits, according to "the computers").

Regardless of how the last week of the regular season plays out, it has been mildly surprising that our favorite ball club is even in the playoff conversation this late into the season, especially when you consider where they were around the All Star break in July.  So, a moral victory, perhaps?

However, as I also stated last week, there will be a post-season in 2019 and if you are a Mets' fan, chances are you are also a baseball fan. I still believe that the upcoming playoffs will be extremely entertaining.
So, how do things look now that there is only one week left in the regular season?

Four of the six division races have been decided, leaving the Central Divisions in each league still in doubt. Additionally, the two Wild Card races are still VERY much up in the air, so the final roster of teams that make the playoffs is still to be determined.

With that said, here are the updated playoff positions IF the season ended today (09/23/19);

AL Division Leaders                          NL Division Leaders

1.  Houston    102-54   (0)                  1.  Los Angeles   99-56  (0)
2.  New York   102-55  (0)                   2.   Atlanta           96-61  (0)
3,  Minnesota  95-60   (3)                   3.  St Louis          89-67  (4) 

AL Wild Card Teams                          NL Wild Card Teams

4.      Oakland    94-62   +2                 4.  Washington    85-69   ---
5a.  Tampa Bay  92-64   ---                 5.  Milwaukee      86-70   ---
5b.  Cleveland    92-64   ---
                                                              6.  Chicago         82-74    4.0
                                                              7.  New York       81-74    4.5

***The numbers in parenthesis are the "magic number" for each team to clinch their respective division and guarantee a first round series instead of the equivalent of a one game playoff in the Wild Card match up.

***The numbers within the Wild Card Standings are games ahead, with a + indicating how far the first Wild Card team is ahead of the second (home field for the actual game).  The rest of that column indicates how far back the rest of the teams are from the second Wild Card team.

What is interesting is that Cleveland and Tampa Bay are tied for the second position and only one team will make it.  Additionally, the Brewers really put themselves in great position this past week, thanks to a hapless Pirates team they beat up on.  In the same time frame, the Cubs continually melted down against the Cardinals, which pretty much ended their chances. The biggest question in the NL now is who gets home field for the Wild Card match up?

The listed positions could still move around a bit as the season draws to a close, but here are the potential matchups for the Wild Card Round and the Divisional Round as things stand today;

Wild Card Round (one game)

Tampa Bay/Cleveland @ Oakland

Milwaukee @ Washington

Divisional Round (five game series)

AL Wild Card Winner @ Houston

Minnesota @ New York

NL Wild Card Winner @ Los Angeles

St Louis @ Atlanta

***The Championship Series and the World Series set ups are to be determined and will be covered at a later date.

I still don't see either Wild Card winner having much of a shot against the Dodgers and/or the Astros (or Yankees) in a five game set.  Especially since the teams that advance out of the Wild Card matchup will have burned their best starter in an effort to simply advance to the Divisional Round.  But, that is why they play the games, right?

In any event, it should be an interesting final week to the regular season with the all of the Wild Card positions still unsettled and overall home field advantage in the AL still up for grabs between the Astros and Yankees.  

I will check back once the regular season wraps up, so we can take a look at the final playoff matchups, etc.


Mack Ade said...

It's September 23rd and we still haven't been eliminated.

Can I get a big... OORAH.

Reese Kaplan said...

It is just a matter of running out of Magic as our number is up.

Tom Brennan said...

Very hard to imagine we go 7-0 and Brewers go 2-4 to tie - and how is the tie then broken?

Mike Freire said...

I agree that things are looking a bit bleak........the Nationals are not playing well (compared to the Brewers), so they may be the team we try to catch. The problem is that the Nationals have a five game series with the Phillies coming up. We need the Phillies to kick their asses, but then the Phillies would be right on our heels after doing so.

If two teams are tied, per your question, then they have a one game playoff to determined who moves on to the WC game the next day. I think they use head to head results in the regular season to determine who would host the one game playoff (to get to the one game playoff). In our case, we would host the Nationals, but have to travel to Milwaukee in the event they are the team we tie with.

It all starts with a 7-0 finish to the year......

Mack's Mets © 2012