Reese Kaplan -- Mets Have a Nice Problem to Solve

During early January when the Mets traded for a pair of minor league infielders from Houston, sending catcher Scott Manea, shortstop Luis Santana and outfielder Ross Adolph, it got some attention but it wasn’t the kind of direction-changing trade the fans had hoped to see.  After all, Cody Bohanek was a career .225 hitter with some speed but no power.  The other guy had a much better minor league pedigree having hit .292 with over 100 HRs and almost 400 RBIs over 2200 ABs but he’d failed in his big league trial, posting only a .194 AVG with 49 strikeouts in 165 ABs.  Surely this was a minor, bench-filling transaction at best.

Flash forward to the waning days of the 2019 season and it’s clear that of all the moves Brodie Van Wagenen made preparing for his first Mets campaign, obtaining JD Davis was surely the crown jewel of his accomplishments.  In 2018 in just over a half-season’s worth of ABs Davis hit .342 (good enough for the AAA batting title) to go along with 17 HRs and 81 RBIs.  Those numbers are eye popping even if you factored in some PCL adjustment for the inflated stats that happen with great regularity there.

When Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie were both injured to start the season it not only opened the door to Pete Alonso getting a real shot to play 1B, but it also created the opportunity for JD Davis to get some fairly regular playing time at 3B.  While people considered 3B his primary position, it was clear his bat was far more advanced than his glove.  Soon he found himself in something of a platoon with Dom Smith in LF when Brandon Nimmo went down with injury and Jeff McNeil was establishing himself along with Michael Conforto in the other outfield positions.  Yes, he’s a bit rough out there, but he’s also made some nice catches, too, though some are the result of making up for poor instincts and routes. 

So when the 2020 season begins the Mets have a nice dilemma on their hands.  Right now in 385+ ABs Davis has hit 20 HRs, driven in 53 and is hitting .303.  When you hit like that, it’s hard to stay out of the lineup.  However, next year you theoretically have Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil all available for the outfield as well.  Dom Smith should be ready, too.  So what do you do with JD Davis?

You could insert him at 3B and hope his defense improves.  That would still leave a crowded outfield with McNeil, Conforto, Cespedes and Nimmo.  If Robinson Cano is going to play 2B, it would relegate your $10 million veteran supersub, Jed Lowrie, into a role player.  In general, we have seen that salary dictates playing time and with Davis at near major league minimum that could factor into his role as well.

If you put him into a corner outfield position, what then do you do with the others?  Arguably Conforto is the most obvious one to consider trading.  He’s coming into his expensive years and could become a free agent after the 2021 season.  Coming off a 31 HR season, he would be mighty attractive to other teams.

Brandon Nimmo is hitting arbitration for the first time and won’t be a free agent until 2023.  His health, of course, is a concern.  Given his lost 2019 season, you’d be selling low.

Yoenis Cespedes theoretically could be traded if the Mets paid down a huge portion of his 2020 salary which is $29.5 million.  Considering how little he’s played during his current contract, I’m thinking the only way you move him is to pay at least $15 million of that salary.  I can’t see the Wilpons agreeing to do that, though the club has shown they were just fine without him this season.  He’s going to be a free agent at the end of the 2020 season anyway, so trading him away in his walk year is not necessarily a bad idea even if it costs a lot of money to do it.

Dom Smith is not going to net you much in trade and the lingering concerns about his health will depress his value even further.

Jeff McNeil would obviously be highly attractive to other clubs, but there would be torches and pitchforks carried by throngs of Mets fans storming Citifield if they entertained that notion.

Jed Lowrie probably is still worth the $10 million he will earn in 2020, but his value is still going to be depressed because he missed all of 2019.  Consequently, finding a taker for him would probably mean taking back a questionable player or contract in return. 

That brings us to another possibility – do you sell high on JD Davis to an AL team seeking a DH?  He wouldn’t fetch a king’s ransom, but you would certainly get a lot of interest.

So what is the solution?  Where do you see JD Davis fitting in for the 2020 season?  Does he rot away on the bench or do they bench more expensive players to put their best offense on the field?