During early January when the Mets traded for a pair of
minor league infielders from Houston, sending catcher Scott Manea, shortstop
Luis Santana and outfielder Ross Adolph, it got some attention but it wasn’t
the kind of direction-changing trade the fans had hoped to see. After all, Cody Bohanek was a career .225
hitter with some speed but no power. The
other guy had a much better minor league pedigree having hit .292 with over 100
HRs and almost 400 RBIs over 2200 ABs but he’d failed in his big league trial,
posting only a .194 AVG with 49 strikeouts in 165 ABs. Surely this was a minor, bench-filling
transaction at best.
Flash forward to the waning days of the 2019 season and it’s
clear that of all the moves Brodie Van Wagenen made preparing for his first
Mets campaign, obtaining JD Davis was surely the crown jewel of his
accomplishments. In 2018 in just over a
half-season’s worth of ABs Davis hit .342 (good enough for the AAA batting
title) to go along with 17 HRs and 81 RBIs.
Those numbers are eye popping even if you factored in some PCL
adjustment for the inflated stats that happen with great regularity there.
When Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie were both injured to start
the season it not only opened the door to Pete Alonso getting a real shot to
play 1B, but it also created the opportunity for JD Davis to get some fairly
regular playing time at 3B. While people
considered 3B his primary position, it was clear his bat was far more advanced
than his glove. Soon he found himself in
something of a platoon with Dom Smith in LF when Brandon Nimmo went down with
injury and Jeff McNeil was establishing himself along with Michael Conforto in
the other outfield positions. Yes, he’s
a bit rough out there, but he’s also made some nice catches, too, though some
are the result of making up for poor instincts and routes.
So when the 2020 season begins the Mets have a nice dilemma
on their hands. Right now in 385+ ABs
Davis has hit 20 HRs, driven in 53 and is hitting .303. When you hit like that, it’s hard to stay out
of the lineup. However, next year you
theoretically have Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff
McNeil all available for the outfield as well.
Dom Smith should be ready, too.
So what do you do with JD Davis?
You could insert him at 3B and hope his defense
improves. That would still leave a crowded
outfield with McNeil, Conforto, Cespedes and Nimmo. If Robinson Cano is going to play 2B, it
would relegate your $10 million veteran supersub, Jed Lowrie, into a role
player. In general, we have seen that
salary dictates playing time and with Davis at near major league minimum that
could factor into his role as well.
If you put him into a corner outfield position, what then do
you do with the others? Arguably
Conforto is the most obvious one to consider trading. He’s coming into his expensive years and could
become a free agent after the 2021 season.
Coming off a 31 HR season, he would be mighty attractive to other teams.
Brandon Nimmo is hitting arbitration for the first time and
won’t be a free agent until 2023. His
health, of course, is a concern. Given
his lost 2019 season, you’d be selling low.
Yoenis Cespedes theoretically could be traded if the Mets
paid down a huge portion of his 2020 salary which is $29.5 million. Considering how little he’s played during his
current contract, I’m thinking the only way you move him is to pay at least $15
million of that salary. I can’t see the
Wilpons agreeing to do that, though the club has shown they were just fine
without him this season. He’s going to
be a free agent at the end of the 2020 season anyway, so trading him away in
his walk year is not necessarily a bad idea even if it costs a lot of money to
do it.
Dom Smith is not going to net you much in trade and the lingering
concerns about his health will depress his value even further.
Jeff McNeil would obviously be highly attractive to other
clubs, but there would be torches and pitchforks carried by throngs of Mets fans
storming Citifield if they entertained that notion.
Jed Lowrie probably is still worth the $10 million he will
earn in 2020, but his value is still going to be depressed because he missed
all of 2019. Consequently, finding a
taker for him would probably mean taking back a questionable player or contract
in return.
That brings us to another possibility – do you sell high on
JD Davis to an AL team seeking a DH? He
wouldn’t fetch a king’s ransom, but you would certainly get a lot of interest.
So what is the solution?
Where do you see JD Davis fitting in for the 2020 season? Does he rot away on the bench or do they
bench more expensive players to put their best offense on the field?
12 comments:
JD Davis gives them a righty bat that Conforto, McNeil and Nimmo do not, not to mention Smith. So JD stays.
I would consider trading Conforto. The swoons, including the ill-timed recent slump, make him the least desirable of the regulars. I think Smith's injury history hurts him - another team still won't really know what he is capable of.
Nimmo just gets on base constantly which is a huge way to stay in games. Keeper.
McNeil is a rising star - he ain't goin' nowhere.
JD Davis catches crap for his glove, but he has a mighty fine outfield arm, which counts too.
keep LAGARAS and play him in center field every day.TRADE WHEELER TO YANKEES for ANJULAR and get rid of FRAISER.
I didn't expect to see a 'keep Lagares' mention in this post.
The Mets 2020 outfield looks interesting. No superstars, just good overall bats.
I'm a positive harmony guy. I would extend Conforto for 2-3 more years.
I'm going to play McNeil in a corner outfield position and give third over to Lowrie.
As for Cespedes, I don't expect him to play any more baseball. If he does, and he can carry his weight, I'll make him one of my keepers.
That leaves Davis to scrounge up at-bats on off-days in the outfield and platoon with Lowrie on third.
Like I said, a good outfield but not much more than that.
I can see keeping Lag as a #5 OFer, if he's willing to sign cheap.
But the overcrowding goes way beyond him and JD. A lot of fans are screaming for "another power bat, despite 5 20+ guys already here, but where would he play?
I don't see Yo being tradable unless he proves in ST that he's healthy, but if he is he is valuable here.
Where do we squeeze Nimmo, 4to, McNeil, JD and Lag, even if Yo is currently a neighbor of Jimmy Hoffa?
In the IF, with Pete, Cano, Amed, and Lowrie, plus McNeil or Davis and possibly Panik, it's the same.
And I haven't even mentioned Smith, who I see as trade bait at this point.
In any case, I see our problem more as subtraction than addition. There's just no room at the inn.
Bill
I want the Mets to take the money saved from Lagares (9mil), Frazier (9mil), and Avilan (1.6mil) and add what it necessary to sign Rendon.
I then don't need another power outfielder.
I can play Rendon full time at third, McNeil full time as a corner outfielder, and take it from there.
We're assuming here that YC is still alive and not because he disappeared down a sinkhole at his farm because his total absence is alarming and absolutely no info has come out about him that I've read. Conforto and Noah because of their agent Boras and 2 years left of control would be possible trade pieces as we start on "whats our roster for next year".
I would keep Lagares or at least have another defensive CF as a backup. Maybe Broxten Lee who was in Syracuse and Binghamton last year?
As far as JD goes, he has put up better numbers at Citi Field than any other Mets player, ever. He needs to stay in some capacity.
Oh and Rendon hits well in Citi Field too or is it that he just kills the Mets?
Btw, miss Ross Adolf. I would have given someone else instead. Thought he was best everyday player on the 2018 Cyclones.
John, how about Sam Haggerty as the 5th OF? Excellent D and speed.
Ross Adolph hit just .228 in 2019 and finished 1 for his last 28. He is still is far behind Quinn Brodey. Quinn could enter the 5th outfielder mix some time in 2020, too, if he picks up the pace.
My guess? The Mets go outside for a 5th outfielder, or just roll with Cespedes, Nimmo, Conforto, McNeil, and JD. That is 5 excellent dudes if Cespedes actually comes back in his contract year.
Haggerty will make a good roster piece due to his speed, versatility and hitting. Lee has the superior arm and CF defense. With limited bench spots available, Haggerty may be the choice.
I like depth, so I would keep them all..........I also am not holding my breath for a Cespedes sighting in 2020. Boy, what a horrible contract that turned out to be!
Davis would be a perfect addition to a team with a DH. Maybe the NL gets into the act and adds one in the next year or two?
So far, with all the "keepers", we need at least a 30-man roster, even without additions and Smith.
Mack, I'd love to have Rendon, but IMO he'd cost close to a Harper - like deal. And a draft pick. And blocking a spot for McNeil/JDD. And using $$$ that could be used elsewhere.
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