Mike Freire - Official Playoff Field and Preview Methodology

Good Morning, Mets' fans!

Feels a bit weird for such a long season to suddenly be "over" (for the Mets, anyway), but it also means that we are on the doorstep of the 2019 MLB Playoffs.  If you have been following along, I have been updating the playoff picture as the last few weeks slowly slipped away.  But, now that the regular season is over the following playoff field is "official", so to speak;


NL Wild Card Game                                AL Wild Card Game

Milwaukee at Washington                          Tampa Bay at Oakland


NLDS Round (best of 5)                           ALDS Round (best of 5)

MIL/WAS winner at Los Angeles              TB/OAK Winner at Houston

St Louis at Atlanta                                      Minnesota at New York


NLCS/ALCS and World Series (best of 7) 

***To Be Determined***


So, no huge surprises in the listed set up with only the Brewers' late season charge towards winning the NL Central leaving things undecided until this afternoon.  They were denied by the Cardinals who will skip the Wild Card game and instead travel to Atlanta for a five game set with the Braves.  I will provide a preview of each series before it actually begins, along with my prediction on the outcome (which should be entertaining in and of itself, so don't be too harsh in the comments as we move along).

As a bit of a primer on how my (twisted) mind works, I like to look at a series of factors that COULD play a role in the match up in question.  I like to break it down into five separate criteria, which I will explain below;

1.  Both teams' win/loss record over the last thirty days (LAST 30);

I think this gives a better picture of how each team has been playing down the stretch, as opposed to the last ten games where the better teams may be coasting after locking up their respective position.

2.  Each teams' run differential, also known as the "luck factor" (RUN DIFFERENTIAL);

I have blathered on about run differential in the past and how it relates to each team's individual projected record.  However, teams can over or underperform the differential, hence the "luck factor" (or lack thereof). This will be displayed as a positive number (won more games then they should have) or a negative number (lost more games then they should have).  It CAN be an indicator of a team that might have a "fatal flaw" (the Nationals bullpen, for example) or one that could fold in a big series OR even a team that could surprise everyone and unexpectedly win one or more series.

3.  Fundamentals ranking for each team (FUNDAMENTALS);  

When the lights shine the brightest, often times the "little things" can dictate who wins and who loses.   I painfully remember the Mets getting outplayed by the Royals a few years ago in this category, even though I still believe the Mets were the more talented team.  With that said, I will focus on three basic factors for a glimpse at fundamentals (Defense - Fielding %/Errors, Base Running - Steal%/Caught Steal% and Relief Pitching - Save Totals/Save %).  Granted, it isn't perfect, but it will likely give you a hint of which team will do better when the pressure is on.

4.  Road Winning Percentage (ROAD %);

Most teams play better at home are are expected to win there, but the really successful playoff teams are also adept at winning in the other teams' ball park.  A road win in any short series is a HUGE momentum builder and it can break the spirit of the other squad. Teams that have strong regular season road records are potentially more dangerous in the playoffs.

5.  Head to Head Record (HEAD 2 HEAD);

Depending on the length of the regular season series between the two combatants, this statistic can be very telling.  Divisional opponents play each other 19 times, while league mates may only see each other 6 or 7 times and Interleague series are even shorter (when we get to the World Series).  Usually, if a team has the other team's "number" that CAN carry over to the playoffs and each team's mindset, or serve as motivation.

Remember, each of the five categories listed above are possible "flags" or "tells" before a series starts.  Sometimes the "magic" of  October baseball defies what we all "think" we know (remember the 1988 NLCS where the Dodgers stunned the favored Mets, despite the Mets beating them 10 out of 11 games in the regular season).  I suppose that's what makes it so enjoyable to watch, unless your team gets the short end of the stick (but I digress).

So, I hope all of you follow along with this journey and we will see how close I come to predicting what will happen, or not.

On to the Wild Card matchups, which will be first up in the next article in this series.