9/25/19

TOM BRENNAN - METS HAVE NO MARGIN FOR ERROR

5 comments


The tragic number is one as we enter Wednesday's action.

Milwaukee wins one of its last 5, the Mets' wild card hopes are kaput.

In fact, the Mets have to win all 5 and the Brewers lose all 5 for the Mets to not be out.

Chances of that?  I'd say 1/10 of 1%.

As in 1 in 1,000.

Good luck.

How did the Mets get there?

Well, the Mets and Brewers were tied on August 31, at 69-66.  The Cubs were the Mets' biggest worry at 73-62.  

The Brewers, despite having arguably the NL's repeat MVP at that point in Christian Yelich, were just 3 games over after 135 games.

Since August 31?  The Mets are 13-9 - good against mostly strong competition.

The Cubs started September 3-1, but have dropped 12 of 18 since, to sit at 9-13 this month.

The Brewers?  Despite losing Yelich two weeks ago, their hear and sould, they've gone 18-4 in September.

Hats off to them - they've been brilliant.

Longer term, it has been the bullpen, baby.

As of today, the Mets are:

6th in NL hitting (.257); Brewers? 9th (.247)

7th in runs (765); Brewers? 9th (743)

4th in starter ERA (3.91); Brewers? 9th (4.49)

12th in pen ERA (5.01); Brewers?  6th (4.31)

Mets 36 saves, 27 blown (57%), some spectacularly (think Dodgers...think Nats).

Brewers 49 saves, 25 blown (66%).

Conclusions:

Mets combo of starters and offensive players were clearly good enough for a wild card.

The bullpen's subpar efforts throughout 2019 pulled them out of the wild card.  

And Mickey Throw Away Callaway certainly contributed to that with many questionable pen decisions, the one most recently when the totally AAAA Walter Lockett was brought into a game on Monday that the Mets needed desperately that the Mets, against a bad team, had just cut away 4 runs of a 6 run deficit, only to promptly have the Marlin lead go back to a deflating 4 runs.

The Brewers were 9th out of 15 in a lot of categories, as can be seen above, but solid in the pen.  

That should have gotten them to around .500 in 2019.

But in 2019, they just plain have played a lot better than their stats, especially in September, and are on the cusp of a wild card game. 

The Mets?  I compare the Wilpon-owned franchise to a pole vaulter, who is hoping to clear the bar with it rattling but staying aloft.

The Mets' problem?  Their failure to spend more (this year on pen help) and too many questionable decisions makes this a franchise that should be planning on clearly that pole vault high bar by 6 inches - in case they have a bad jump and only clear it by one.

Not clearing the bar should NOT be an option.




5 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Lockett by the #s, just as a point of reference:

2019 Minor leagues: 66 innings, 83 hits, 45 Ks, 1.42 WHIP

Major Leagues (total): 37 IP, 35 runs, 50 hits.

Why you would put him in, on a do-or-die situation, is absolutely stunning. What, was he up warming up when it was 6-0, so when it went to 6-4, you don't get Edwin Diaz up? Mickey Mess Up, on a very big scale.

Mike Freire said...

Excellent, Tom........I have an article on the heels of this one that will support your statements.

The bullpen is the biggest factor, although the Mets inability to beat the better teams in the league (outside of the Nats), is also a component, IMO.

TP said...

Agree 100%. I don’t like calling for someone’s job, but despite what may be off the field strengths, the Mick has proven beyond and shadow of a doubt that his game management is a huge competitive disadvantage. Buying 3 wins from a player will cost upwards of $25 million a year. The Mets can hire Girardi at a fraction and gain the same, with money left over for needed player upgrades.

Tom Brennan said...

TP, excellent point on cost of "buying wins."

Another loss that hugely bugged me was the 10-4 Nats game that became an 11-10 loss. Knowing the Nats are at home and one of the most dangerous teams in the league, why not START that inning with Edwin Diaz? He never would have surrendered 7 runs. Instead, was it Sewald who started a real mess that Edwin ended with 2 big hits allowed. That inning, and loss, was entirely preventable.

Some would say it is 20-20. But if I were managing, against the Nats, in that situation, I 100% bring in Edwin, despite his own struggles at the time. Dude throws 100. Up 6 runs - he isn't giving up 6. Perfect situation for him.

Tom Brennan said...

Mike, good point - they have in fact done poorly against the better teams - something for Pete, Mike, Jeff, Amed and Brandon to turn around in 2020.

Mack's Mets © 2012