12/7/20

Tom Brennan - OTHER TEAMS' PAIN IS METS' GAIN



When you consider the competitive landscape for talent as the winter meetings currently commence, it is worthwhile to realize that some MLB teams had very bad years financially.

Bizjournals.com did a recent article where it referred to TMR’s 2020 MLB Fan Cost Index, which reportedly "uses what each team saw for attendance across its full 2019 slate of games to approximate the spending that didn’t happen for home games in 2020 because fans weren’t in attendance.

"The result: More than $5 billion in lost revenue across the league, according to TMR’s calculations. The Yankees topped the list, with an estimated $437 million in game-day revenue lost compared to what the Yankees might have drawn with fans attending a traditional 81-game home schedule. The Miami Marlins were on the other end of the scale, at No 30, with $37 million in game-day revenue lost."

And this earlier article by Forbes in May 2020 takes a wider look at other revenues some teams were expected to have access to during 2020 - I did not dive into it, but refer to it as you wish:

A Deep Dive Into MLB’s Financial Losses For The 2020 Season (forbes.com)

Additionally, FanGraphs recently took a look at the Braves finances and concluded the following:

"..we speculate (that) the Braves would have been down $65 million for the entire year, though that’s without accounting for the potentially tens of millions extra in tax benefits due to those unusual losses."

And "Some teams might have lost more than the Braves and some teams might have lost less, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore prior gains. From the beginning of 2019 to the end of 2020, the Braves are down a total of just $11 million. Since the start of 2018, with the same fourth quarter assumption, they are up by a total of $83 million."

So...it's complicated...what isn't...but suffice it to say that many teams' losses were likely to have been huge.

Another FanGraphs article in May, however, was skeptical about MLB cliams as to how much they would lose.  After all, they cut many costs tremendously and still had those other revenue sources. 

No doubt, such financial imprecision and opaqueness could lead to much player-owner acrimony going forward:

Parsing MLB’s Claim of a $4 Billion Loss | FanGraphs Baseball  

In any event, my article is not meant to be an exhaustive look at MLB finances, just a bit of an overview, but clearly (and I'm telling you nothing new) quite a few teams lost a whole lot of money in 2020...and, given that COVID may still be an obstacle, albeit a decreasing one, in 2021, the promise of a normal revenue 2021 is iffy at best at this point.

All of which should suppress spending from many teams as we proceed into the action portion of 2020's off season...except one team, which won't be constrained like other teams from prior and possible future losses:


THE METS

So, Steve and Sandy, "Spend well and prosper."



P.S. Today is the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor.  Thanks always to those brave individuals who put (or have put) their lives on the line to keep us safe and strong.

13 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

It would be nice to see the Mets actually DO something in the Winter Meetings instead of avoiding the high priced free agent and trade options like they've done during the Wilpon era.

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, I think there are two questions:

1) Will Cohen spend up to the cap?

2) Will he spend over the cap?

Those two options are superior to Wilpon finances-induced timidity.

Remember1969 said...

The biggest problem he has this year is next year and the year after having to pay for Cano.

Remember1969 said...

So I have been putting some different "How to build the 2021 Mets" plans together. As long as it is Winter Meetings week, I'll try something a little different and get things going. This plan is called "Let's get young and defensive"

Trade 1: Steven Matz to the Twins for Byron Buxton (swap of $5M contracts)

Trade 2: Ronny Mauricio to the Dodgers for Keibert Ruiz

Signing 1: Kolton Wong to play second base (2 yrs $20M)

Trade 3: Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario, Robert Gsellman, Mark Vientos, Freddy Valdez, Thomas Szapucki, and Franklyn Kilome for Francisco Lindor, Zach Plesac, and Joey Cantillo

Signing 2: Jurickson Profar as the utility guy. (3 yrs $18M)

Signing 3: Taijuan Walker for the #4 rotation slot (3 yrs $21M)

Signing 4: Package Deal - Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright (Molina @ 2 yrs $12M, Wainwright 1 yr $5M)

Signing 5: Michael Conforto (5 yrs $90M)

Remember1969 said...

I forgot about the last signing - Brad Hand (2 yrs, $20M)

The final look after all that:

C: K. Ruiz ($1M)
1B: D. Smith ($1M)
2B: K. Wong ($10M)
SS: F. Lindor ($20M)
3B: A. Gimenez (.75M) (straight platoon with J.D. Davis)
LF: B. Nimmo ($3M)
CF: B. Buxton ($5M)
RF: M. Conforto ($18M)
DH: P. Alonso ($1M)

Bench:
L. Guillorme ($1M)
J. Davis ($1M)
Y. Molina ($6M)
J. Profar ($6M)

Starting Rotation
J. deGrom ($36M)
M. Stroman ($19MM)
Z. Plesac ($1M)
T. Walker ($6M)
A. Wainwright ($5M)

BullPen
E. Diaz ($6M)
S. Lugo ($3M)
J. Familia ($11M)
T. May ($7.5M)
M. Castro ($0.75M)
B. Hand ($10M)
D. Betances ($6M)
S. McWilliams ($0.75M)

The total comes in at just south of $200M for 2021.

The defense could be all world.

Seattle Steve said...

I am very old school...pitching..defense and timely hitting...as a team they strike out way to much...if they cut that by a 1/3 they would of made the playoffs...no trades until they exhaust the free agent market.

Remember1969 said...

That $200M includes Syndergaard's $10M.

The committed salary for 2022 sits about $163M without a shortstop and two starting rotation pieces. (including Cano's $21M)

John From Albany said...

I agree with Seattle Steve - Pitching - Defense first - I would also add Speed. Also would exhaust free agent market first. MLB is telling teams to not plan on Universal DH in 2021 - looks like either Dom will go back to LF or he will split time with Pete at 1B.

Tom Brennan said...

Interesting stuff, one and all.

Money sure helps.

Remember 1969 puts together a serious roster indeed.

Tom Brennan said...

Remember 1969, I hope you see this:

I would like to post your roster idea tomorrow or Wednesday in a separate article for reader comments - you good with that?

Let me know, and if so, I can refer to it as "One Mack Mets' Fan's Proposed Roster", or "Mack Mets' Reader "Remember 1969's Proposed Roster".

Let me know - thanks

Remember1969 said...

Sounds good Tom. Let me know if you want me to clean it up into one single document and send it via e-mail.

Tom Brennan said...

Remember 1969, that's great.

I already did combine them while I was on the site for a few minutes before, so it is teed up - only took a few minutes to do the reformat - we will post it tomorrow at 8 AM.

Remember1969 said...

OK, very good. . Thanks!