By Brian Joura January 12, 2021
Today we kick off our ninth year of doing individual projections for the top players on the Mets. My hope is that everyone will weigh in on what they think the player will do in 2021. You’ll have more credibility later on about how you “knew” what Player X was going to do this year if you say it before the games start. Recently, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred told the clubs to prepare for a 162-game season. So, these forecasts will assume the same.
In a change from previous years, let’s give the computer forecasts right away. Not all of the systems are available yet at FanGraphs but we’ll use what’s posted. Also, found a new system to track. Each forecast will now include projections from RotoChamp (RC). It’s nice to have another option to consider but RC gives AB and not PA in it’s forecast. For the PA section for RC, we’ll add AB + BB, which will get us in the right ballpark for most players.
We’re going to start with Jeff McNeil, simply because it doesn’t seem like there’s been a lot of discussion about him so far this offseason. Here are the forecasts from the computer models:
Marcel – 539 PA, .298/.368/.475, 17 HR, 64 RBIs
RotoCh – 522 PA, .314/.380/.497, 17 HR, 68 RBIs
Steamer – 665 PA, .286/..353/.455, 19 HR, 89 RBIs
ZiPS – 581 PA, .297/.362/.464, 16 HR, 70 RBIs
For a guy who’s been in the majors a couple of years now, the computer models have some difference of opinion. The RBIs for Steamer and the OPS (.877) for RC stand out from the others. And perhaps it’s not surprising that there isn’t more agreement with McNeil, because it doesn’t seem like he knows himself what type of hitter he wants to be. On top of that, it’s certainly not set in stone where he’ll hit in the lineup, which will certainly influence his RBI opportunities.
2 comments:
Making a projection for a player is just exercise in boredom
Making a projection for a player is just exercise in boredom
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