6/13/12

A Closer Look at Bullpen and Defense




Introduction: Last night, the Mets accomplished a feat that has proved difficult for them in 2012--they played a full nine-inning game in which the bullpen did not surrender an earned run and the defense did not commit an error. 
It has only happened 15 times in 62 games in 2012. The Mets record in those games is 14-1. Here are some more records of note involving the Mets bullpen and defense: 

37 out of 59 (63%) games the bullpen has allowed a run. 

24 out of 59 (41%) games the bullpen has allowed two runs or more. 

32 out of 62 (52%) games the Mets have committed an error. 

11-26 record when the bullpen allows even just one run (4-8 in April, 5-12 in May, 2-6 in June).

4-20 when the bullpen allows 2 or more runs (2-6 in April, 2-10 in May, 0-4 in June).

2-14 when the bullpen allows 3 or more runs. 

6-16 when the bullpen has allowed at least one run and the team has made at least one error (3-7 in April, 2-5 in May, 1-4 in June)

14-18 in games in which the Mets have made an error (7-8 in April. 6-6 in May. 1-4 in June)

3-9 when the team has committed 2 or more errors. 

2-12 when Errors+bullpen runs allowed >3 (1-4 in April, 1-6 in May, 0-2 in June). 

1-8 when the bullpen has allowed at least three runs and an error was committed by the Mets during the ball game. 

Analysis

- The numbers speak for themselves. While it would be absurd to ask that the Mets play flawless defensive baseball and the bullpen be perfect for the rest of 2012, these records do indicate that the Mets will not be able to contend while playing the field and pitching in relief as poorly as they are. 

- When the bullpen allows a run, which has happened in 63% of the games they have made appearances, the winning percentage for the Mets is .297. First off, the Mets bullpen cannot continue to allow runs nearly two out of every three games they see work. Secondly, the Mets have really not fared well when the 'pen surrenders even one run. Those numbers get even worse when they allow two...

- The Mets bullpen has allowed two or more runs in a whopping 40% of their games this year. The Mets winning percentage in those games is .167. They have four wins in which they have "overcome their bullpen", so to speak, against TWENTY losses. 

- The Mets have faired alright when the defense has made an error. The Mets have made an error in roughly half of the games played thus far and the record is 14-18. Not good but not nearly as bad as when they commit two or more blunders in a game...

- 3-9 (winning percentage of .250) when the defense commits two or more errors. Not okay. Unfortunately, this does not even count misplays (like the failed turned double plays in Washington) otherwise I fear this number is far worse than this. 

- When you combine the two, things get ugly. When the bullpen has allowed three runs and the Mets have committed just one error, they have only won once against eight losses. 

- When the number of errors the Mets have made added to the number of runs the bullpen has allowed exceeds three (i.e. 2 errors and 2 runs allowed or 4 runs allowed and 0 errors or any variation), the Mets record is 2-12 for a winning percentage of .143. 

- The only game the Mets lost when they neither allowed an earned run in relief nor committed an error came in Dillon Gee's outing in the double header against the Giants on April 23rd. The other 14 times the Mets neither made an error nor had a reliever allow an earned run, they have won. That winning percentage is a much more sightly .933. 


Conclusion: To reiterate, asking perfection from the Mets bullpen and glove work is silly. However, they will not compete or come anything close to it when they make two or more errors in 19% of their games and see their bullpen allow two or more runs in 40% of their games as well. Improvements have to made in both areas for this team to continue to play to a respectable record. 


For a list of all of the games: (runs= earned runs allowed by Mets relievers)

--------------------------------------
APRIL
Game 1- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 2- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 3- 1 run, 1 error- WIN
Game 4- 0 runs, 1 error- WIN
Game 5- 2 runs, 1 error- LOSS
Game 6- 2 runs, 0 errors- LOSS
Game 7- 0 runs, 1 error- WIN
Game 8- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 9- 3 runs, 1 error- LOSS
Game 10- 0 runs, 1 error- WIN
Game 11- 3 runs, 2 errors- LOSS
Game 12- 5 runs, 1 error- LOSS
Game 13- 1 run, 1 error- LOSS
Game 14- 3 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 15- 0 runs, 1 error- LOSS
Game 16- 0 runs, 0 errors- LOSS:  April 23rd vs. Giants
Game 17- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 18- 0 runs, 1 error- WIN
Game 19- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 20- 11 runs, 6 errors- LOSS (go figure)
Game 21- 1 run, 1 error- WIN
Game 22- 5 runs, 1 error- WIN:  April 29th vs. Rockies
Game 23- 1 run, 2 errors- LOSS
MAY
Game 24- 1 run, 0 errors- LOSS
Game 25- 3 runs, 0 errors- LOSS
Game 26- 2 runs, 2 errors- LOSS
Game 27- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 28- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 29- 0 runs, 1 error- WIN
Game 30- 0 runs, 2 errors- WIN: 
Game 31- 2 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 32- 2 runs, 1 error- LOSS
Game 33- 1 run, 0 errors- WIN
Game 34- 8 runs, 0 errors- LOSS
Game 35- 1 run, 1 error- WIN
Game 36- 1 run, 0 errors- LOSS
Game 37- 4 runs, 0 errors- LOSS
Game 38- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 39- 6 runs, 0 errors- LOSS
Game 40- 2 runs, 1 error- LOSS
Game 41- 2 runs, 2 errors- WIN:   May 20th vs. Toronto
Game 42- 0 runs, 3 errors- LOSS
Game 43- 1 run, 0 errors- WIN
Game 44- 0 runs, 1 error- WIN
Game 45- 5 runs, 0 errors- LOSS
Game 46- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 47- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 48- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 49- 4 runs, 2 errors- LOSS
Game 50- 0 runs, 1 error- WIN
Game 51- 8 runs, 1 error- LOSS
JUNE
Game 52- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 53- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN
Game 54- 1 run, 2 errors- WIN
Game 55- 2 runs, 1 error- LOSS
Game 56- 3 runs, 3 errors- LOSS
Game 57- 1 run, 2 errors- LOSS
Game 58- 1 run, 0 errors- WIN
Game 59- 3 runs, 0 errors- LOSS
Game 60- 1 run, 0 errors- LOSS
Game 61- 3 runs, 2 errors- LOSS
Game 62- 0 runs, 0 errors- WIN

3 comments:

Brian Joura said...

I like this post and appreciate all of the work that went into it!

I think a follow-up would be nice because we're not used to seeing these types of numbers.

For example: Is (roughly) 25% of your games to have the bullpen not give up a run a typical number? I assume it's low - but how low? Is it historically low?

There's probably dozens of other questions that this data brings to mind.

Stephen Guilbert said...

Those would be great follow-ups, Brian and thanks for the comment.

I have no idea how the Mets 'pen compares to the rest of the league but I would guess that it is not pretty. 40% of appearances of 2 runs or more is awful. I don't know if it is "historic" but I doubt many playoff teams in history have overcome that.

Mack Ade said...

I really believe that the mets jut need one good two-inning guy. Someone who can cover the 6th/7th innings if needed.

The problem is there seems to be no one in the system ready for that right now