TRADE VALUE - SP - Matt Harvey

Rank	Name	Age	Team	Position	Projected WAR	Controlled Through	Contract Dollars	Last Year
25	Matt Harvey	25	NYM	SP	3.8	2018	Pre-Arb – Arb3	7

This is the Jose Fernandez case, only with the timetable moved forward a year. The recovery rates on Tommy John surgery are encouraging enough to think that Harvey could easily be an elite hurler again next year, at which point he will still be making something close to the league minimum, and have three arbitration years remaining after that.

There is certainly a risk component here, and some teams would likely prefer safer bets like Bryant, or even maybe one of the healthy-but-not-quite-as-good hurlers from the previous section on the list. The appeal here might not be as broad, but the potential of acquiring four cheap years of a starter who was as good as anyone when healthy would be very appealing to teams looking for a cost-controlled ace. Value is a balance of risk and reward, and while Harvey certainly comes with plenty of risk, the reward is extraordinarily high as well.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-trade-value-30-21/