8/11/14

Craig Mitchell -- The Amazing Unexpected Success of Lucas Duda (Or How eating crow never tasted so good a Met fan!)

Way back in the early pre-season when it because apparent that the Mets where more than likely not to deal Ike Davis or Lucas Duda before spring training began. The Mets made it known that camp was going to be an open competition between Davis and Duda to finally find out who was going to man first base in 2014.

The competition set, the sides drawn, I was 100% firmly and unapologetically on team DAVIS. Yep, Davis was my guy.  I suffered through his horrific first half of 2012 and thrilled when he started to show his potential when he rebounded to end up with 32 homers and 90 RBI, then, suffered through Ike’s nightmare 2013 which never saw such a turnaround.

Meanwhile, Lucas Duda got bounced around from starter to bench, then outfield, infield and finally majors and minors.   Duda showed some potential in 2011 batting .292 but only offered 10 homers.  Then in 2012 and 13 mostly in part time roles and being juggled in and out of position Duda struggled batting .239 and .223 respectively. While Duda certainly was the underdog to Davis, his production was on par with the former Met actually out homering Davis 15 to 9 last year.

But nagging injuries pretty much ended the competition before it began, and by the time the season started no decision was made and both Davis and Duda found themselves heading north to Flushing.  It didn’t last long. Fifteen games and a pinch hit grand slam later, Davis was gone. My membership in team Davis was ended when the Mets shipped Davis to the Pirates on April 18th for Zach Thornton and Blake Taylor.

At first, I was quite upset. I shook my clenched fists at the heavens denouncing Sandy Alderson for his folly. What had he done? Clearly he made the wrong choice and shipped all that power and superstar potential to Pittsburgh and left the Mets with an untried and 6’4” 255 lb question mark at first.  Davis had shown flashes of a player that was capable of putting up numbers that no home grown Met first baseman could have dreamed of. As a matter of fact, before Davis got injured in Colorado in 2011 and was lost for the season, he was looking like a player that was a cinch for 30 homers, 100 RBI and an average near .300.  In addition, he was a slick fielder and was a definite candidate for a gold glove at first.  

The Lucas Duda era had a slow start. Now with the job firmly his, Terry Collins seemed to show absolutely no confidence in him at all.  Duda was batting low in the order While Curtis Granderson, Chris Young and even Daniel Murphy had shots a batting clean-up.  At the time Collins said he didn’t want to rush the victor in the Mets first base competition into that much responsibility.  I was livid. Duda is a 28 old ball player. He knew his job. He knew what was expected of him. What was Collins doing? What was Alderson thinking? Why was our REAL first baseman in Pittsburgh?

This is where I eat crow.

Sometimes as a Met fan, or a sports fan in general, sometimes you, ok, ok, “I” presume that I know better than the coaches and professionals that are around the athletes I follow. I was so sure that the Mets had misfired on keeping Duda. But now, several months later,  I stuff the handkerchief down my shirt and I’m pulling up a seat at the table and I’m ready for my crow, medium well please.

Lucas Duda has made me a believer. Not only did he thrive as Collins eased him into the clean-up spot. He’s now starting to hit to all fields and is starting to hit left handed pitchers with authority. With 75% of the season nearly complete Duda is batting .261 with 21 homers and 64 RBI, leading the Mets in both the latter categories.  He’s also leading the team in slugging and OPS. If Duda stays on pace, and so far it seems like he will, he is on track to finish 2014 batting approximately .271 with 30 homers and 94 RBI.  Quite a huge jump from the 15 homers 33RBI and .223 he amassed last year. And much more than 8 homers 43 RBI and .235 average Ike Davis is on track to finish at. On top of all of that, Duda has shown to  have fairly soft hands at first and while he’s probably a bit short of gold glove status he’s no slouch and has a more powerful and accurate arm that Davis’.

Now, I’m not totally out of my mind. It’s only part of the season and anything can still happen, but if I was a betting man, I would have lost the house on this one.  And frankly, I’m glad.

While 2014 has been a pretty frustrating year for the Mets and their fans. The fun has been few and far between. The renaissance of Lucas Duda has been a joy to watch.  He’s a true underdog that no one was counting on.  Now, instead of dread, there is an anticipation when he comes to bat. Keith Hernandez shamelessly touts Duda’s new found aggressiveness from the booth.  He’s right.  It’s been a very visible transition. And there is the key word. Transition.

Back in May when Terry Collins said he was easing Duda into the role of clean up that’s exactly what he
was doing. He was allowing Duda to transition from the doubting, hesitant player who would let hitable pitches go by with men on base and the game on the line; to the aggressive slugger we have seen the past two months. Collins deserves the credit for allowing it to happen, but I also think that Lamar Johnson’s entrance as hitting coach has had a hand in it as well.


I guess it comes with the territory.  Being a fan of any team brings out a passion.  I was totally wrong.  I was so sure that what has happened wasn't going to happen. I was sure that Duda was going to be released and was to drift off into obscurity after cups of coffee with other teams before disappearing altogether.  Instead, I have learned that there’s a lot I don’t know about the men who play the game. Who knew that inside Duda lay the heart of a lion? The people who know him, train with him and watch him play every day knew. As for me…..pass the bromo seltzer!

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Duda was labeled a breakout candidate by coaches and players going back to the Jerry Manuel era (eww...) but in fairness to you, he had not yet broken out. I liked Duda for his minor league peripherals and also his prodigious HRs early on, but was beginning to worry that his previous success might not translate at this level and now it has. one of the few things that JM said that made me laugh was when he said about Duda "that boy has what we call a loud bat... and really knows how to get after a ML post game buffet

Craig Mitchell said...

I remember that too! But that promise was all but forgotten and the favor was in Ike Davis' camp. His vindication has been fun!

Tom Brennan said...

I am wrong about a lot but got the Duda call right. I put myself in the owners' shoes (NICE shoes, BTW) and thought that Ike not only was horrific early in 2012 and 2013 for a very long time, had he not been so bad, they're in the race for the first 2-3 months each year. Meaning they'd have drawn more. Meaning millions in revenue lost. As an owner, do I want to go for the Trifecta? Not me.

Duda I saw as a non-aggressive guy who in his rookie year in 2011 hit over .300 in July; over .300 in Aug; and over .300 in Sept. Which told me he was a natural hitter, with power (low HRs in 2011 were due to CitiCanyon).
Lucas fell prey to "work the pitcher" in 2012 and 2013, and tried to adapt to that AND left field. Big mistake. He is an awesome hitter if he ends his at bats with less than 2 strikes. He's finally been unshackled from work the pitcher and doing what he does best. That fixed him.
The best, as Sinatra sang, is yet to come.

Anonymous said...

I'm one who is eating a large amount of crow and loving it.
I use to use Duda as a comparison to a prospect I felt would become nothing more than a 4th outfielder or utility player. I hope he continues to make my past comments look more foolish.

Reese Kaplan said...

I did a search in baseball reference to comparables and there were two who stood out. White Sox outfielder Dayan Viciedo has eerily similar numbers but he and Duda seem to be trending in different directions.

The long term comparable that was pretty much on the mark (save for a couple of double digit years stealing bases) is Glenallen Hill. Would you sign on for a career similar to his or would you expect more?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillgl01.shtml

Anonymous said...

Lucas has actually fell prey to the "work the pitcher" his entire professional career. I remember sitting with some scouts at a B Mets game when he was there and one of the scouts said, "if he ever takes the bat off his shoulder, I am moving my retirement savings into the manufacturing of baseballs because he will make many disappear." I think that is an old scout line, but funny nonetheless