Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 198 lb
Age: 23
Acquired: 2012 Rule 4 Draft, 2nd round, University of Arkansas
2014: (AA/AAA) .344/.413/.443, 4 HR, 43 RBI, 13 SB (65%), 44 BB, 82 K
2013: (A+/AA) .225/.300/.335, 5 HR, 49 RBI, 9 SB (82%), 36 BB, 80 K
2012: (A) .259/.335/.367, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 5 SB (83%), 12 BB, 26 K
There....I did it. All the hype around Matt Reynolds and the monster season he is having has vaulted him into the Top 25. "But why is he only #22? The guy is hitting close to .350!" Well as I have indicated in the past, I personally am not on his bandwagon.
During his time at the University of Arkansas Reynolds initially hit only .203 and .247 in his 1st two years of college. Starting his junior year, though, Reynolds simplified his swing and turned himself in a pure "slap" hitter. While this improved his contact rate significantly, it robbed him of any power he had since he eliminated his hand load completely. This brings me to my main point of contention with Reynolds.
"Slap" style hitters are at the mercy of the baseball gods more than any other type of hitter. One stat that is extremely important to them is BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). The MLB average for BABIP is roughly .300; Reynolds so far this season is posting a .433 BABIP. This rate, by SABR standards, is ungodly unsustainable. In fact the highest BABIP rates in baseball right now is .377. Generally this high rates belong to only the most elite of players. The only proven guys with BABIP's above .350 are Puig, Goldschmidt, Cano, Gomez, Trout, Stanton, Altuve, Kemp, Tulowitzski, McCutcheon, and Rios.....all Superstars.
One thing in Reynolds favor is the fact that he has proven capable of sticking at SS defensively. He has soft hands, good range, and a strong arm that was originally at 3B. So, even if his BABIP and his Avg do normalize back down, he still has a chance to post numbers that are at least MLB average for the SS position. While he's not Rule 5 eligible this off-season, the Mets may still add him to the 40 man roster to get a good look to see if he can continue to put the bat on the ball.
Ceiling: Super Utility IF who ends up starting 140 games (Brock Holt)
Floor: Solid Bench Guy who can start in a pinch (Mike Aviles)
3 comments:
I am glad to see that evaluation came with the necessary caveats, he is a nice player, but most don't see a high ceiling or even a starting position player. that being said, it is nice to see anyone on the Farm putting up good offensive numbers. I don't think he will be up in Sept for two reasons: 1. they have a lot of Rule 5 players this year, so they will be short on spots and probably don't want him to take a spot if they don't have to; and 2. they may want to see him finish strong for a full season for confidence and not want any bad memories of being overmatched at the ML level. let him rake in AAA and go into next year with big vibes to build off of.
I also don't see Reynolds in Queens next spring all for the same roster reasons listed above and in my last post
I am happy to see Matt stay in AAA for now, and let's see if the 6'1" 200 lb Reynolds can add some pop back to his hitting approach before he gets called up, particularly if it becomes a Rule 5 issue. Average is great, but Chris' BABIP observation is one that can't be ignored. He's made great strides thru AA and AAA this season, see whether he can further improve on that by maintaining average while adding whatever power he has back to his game.
But if the plan is to keep Ruben at SS, call Matt up tomorrow to start instead!
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