Morning Report – August 5th – 2014 Projection, Prospect Ranking, Mail Box

2014 Projection -

The Mets loss yesterday to the Giants was a particular blow to my belief that the 2014 Mets had any chance of making the playoffs this year. This 4-5 home stand had to be in the 7-2 range for anything positive to develop and, frankly, there are just too many teams playing better baseball than the Mets this year.

I was particularly upset at the ’triple’ in the 7^th inning. This never would have happened if Chris Young kept his distance and let Juan Lagares play this ball from the proper angle. I’m not sure there would even have been a hit here. Yes, it looked like Lagares would have had to leave his feet and risk injury, but that is what he does out there.

No, I’ve let my fandom get the best of me again, creating these ‘wild card’ charts that simply aren’t realistic. Therefore, we’ll start away from all that work that simply proves that the Mets have gone nowhere in the past three weeks.


Also, I wrote earlier this week that I didn't expect many (or any) roster moves for the remaining  one month left in the minor league season. Then, of course, LHRP Jack Leathersich gets promoted to AAA-Las Vegas.

In addition, the Mets DFA OF Bobby Abreu and call back up LHH-OF Kirk Nieuwenuis. 

I wouldn't be surprised if all of these represent the beginning of this team adjusting their rosters for the future of 2015 rather than hanging on to the current, somewhat hopeless attempt to make the playoffs.

I hate when I see players like John Gant and Robert Gsellman held back for a playoff at the A-level when they should be pitching in St. Luice and moving towards the majors. Does anyone other than the officials of the Sally League and the owners of the Sand Gnats really care about all this?

I'll write about the minor league portion of this more tomorrow, but let's hope that we see more roster progress out  of the Mets. 

Prospect Ranking –

            I wanted to go back here and spend a little more time on what we do here at Mack’s Mets, especially prospect ranking.

Guys like Stephen Guilbert, Thomas Brennan, Christopher Soto, and I are all at a disadvantage to the so-called experts out there that either attend every game at some level or have someone working for them that does. I had the pleasure of attending many Savannah games over the years and sitting next to scouts that did this kind of stuff for a living, but those days are over for me. Now, even I am left with just an opinion.

Prospect ranking isn’t as easy as placing the first round pick over the second. And, hitting .310 in the rookie league means nothing compared to doing the same thing in Binghamton.

I’ve said many times that a good percentage of what takes place at the GCL level, or in Kingsport or Brooklyn, is developmental. This is where pitchers are being taught to throw more than one + pitch, or where batters are having their swing mechanics changed to create a better result from their efforts. Nothing I just said translates on a stat sheet; in fact, it usually produces just the opposite at first.

I saw firsthand the initial development of Juan Lagares into a successful outfielder, regardless of what his batting average was. We recently watched scouts tag both P Marcos Molina and IF Amed Rosario as prospect material well early of anything they produced on paper. As John Lennon used to say, ‘it takes words and music to make a hit’ and very few have enough of a package to make it all the way.

I have reported on the Savannah Sand Gnats since 2007 and there have been only two hitters that weren’t intimidated by Grayson Stadium. One was someone named Brahiam Maldonado who hit ten home runs there in 2007… and the other was Aderlin Rodriguez, who hit 17 there in 2011. Neither one will ever sit next to Tom Glavine during the HOF ceremony. They did something good, but not enough to become great.

Chris, Stephen, Tom, and I all have our own slant on this process. Stephen and Chris seem influenced at what they have seen previously at Coney Island. Tom uses current stats verses others at the same level to influence his lists, and I chose to reach out and listen to what others in the industry tell me they believe.

Don’t take this too serious folks. We’re just having fun here and telling you what we think and, as always, you are welcome to chime in. What you’re not welcome to do is get personal with any of the writers. That just earns you a quick deletion.

Mail Box –

            Michael Scannell –

Re Brandon Nimmo… FYI, over his last ten games he's hitting .316/.435/.500. Looks like he's adjusting to AA finally.

Mack – Yeah, it takes most of these guys a little while to adjust to the increased quality of competition at each level, especially AA. Also, most of the young ones get off to a slow start.

The first thing that happens to these guys is they start off hitting in the bottom of the lineup instead of at the top like they were where they came from. Nimmo has adjusted well.

I don’t expect any movement to Las Vegas for him this season, but I do think there is a good chance he gets called up to Queens when the rosters expand. The Mets should be out of the pennant race by then and it will be a good time to show off some of the kids.

Robert Smiley - to me

Mack, What else does Matt Reynolds need to show to be considered for the Mets shortstop of the future? With a couple of innings left in Sunday nights game he has 4 more hits including a home run.

Mack – Well, I think guys like you and Tom Brennan are starting to wear me down here on Reynolds. I will tell you this if and when he gets a shot before the end of the year… don’t expect him to be better in the field than either Tejada or Flores.

Now, regarding his hitting and the conversion to hitting a baseball in the normal humid air of the NL East, I’d definitely say at this point that he deserves to be one of the additional players called up at the end of the minor league system when the Queens roster expands.

Until then, we’re still trying to get Flores time here, who out hit Reynolds.

Minor Notes –

Phillip Humber pitched one inning for AAA-Sacramento on Sunday night… 3-ER, 4.11-ER