Majoring on the Minors: Top 30 Prospects - Amed Rosario - Vol.3



By now if you read my first two Top Prospects articles, you know that I approach it a bit differently - 2 lists:

·       A top 20 list of guys who are closing in on the big leagues.  Guys who could help us in the near future or be trade bait.

·       A top 10 list of lower minors guys who likely won’t show up until 2017 or later.

I start with the Top 10 List of Down-The-Road Mets Prospects.

I further sub-divided and ranked the 10 into the top 5 and the next 5.

My Top 5 from I refer to as my GUPPY SQUADRON LEADERS.  Guppies from rookie ball headed towards possible future stardom. Budding rock stars.  Future multi-millionaires.

Here’s my Guppy Squadron Leader List So Far:

# 1 - Marcos Molina

#2 – Michael Conforto

Today, add to that list #3:

Amed Rosario

Many consider him an elite future shortstop.  Some say he will outgrow the position and maybe his bat won't be elite enough to carry him at another position where robust hitting is more critical to success.  Me? I say…stop worrying.  My bet is he'll be a solid defensive shortstop and a superior hitting one.  Shortstop problem solved for a decade or two.

Signed for nearly $2 million, in 2013 in Kingsport, at the tender age of 17, Rosario (listed at 6’2”, 170, but sure to fill out) held his own – in 58 games, he slashed at .241/.279/.358 - and was chosen to be the top prospect that year coming out of the entire Appalachian League.  That certainly was attention-getting

The 18 year old in 2014 in Brooklyn hit very, very well at such a young age in the Mets' highest short season league (.289/.337/.380 in 68 games, with a bit more struggle in a brief 7 game cameo in Savannah), and flashed a bit of speed, with 7 steals and 6 triples.  And roughly a K every 5 plate appearances, not troubling.  Glove’s been shaky so far, but I’ll worry more about it if he does not show improvement in 2015 at the tender age of 19.  I remember another young guy with a shaky glove who improved a bit as he got older: Juan Lagares, maybe you've heard of him.

Rosario. What's not to love?   I see no reason that he cannot arrive in Queens in 2017, either as an opening day starting shortstop at age 21, or a mid-season call up.  A shortstop with decent pop, on base ability and speed.

Sky's the limit for this young man, who will benefit from full season ball in 2015.  My guess is he splits the season between Savannah and St Lucie in 2015. AA and AAA in 2016, with .maybe a half season in 2017 in AAA, then it will be Flushing time for Rosario.

He won’t be without competition for the spot, of course.  Milton Ramos was a high 2014 selection, Luis Guillorme has impressed, and closer to the bigs, Matt Reynolds will be jockeying for shortstop playing time with Wilmer Flores in 2015 and 2016, absent a trade.  But these things have a way of sorting themselves out. They always do.

Thoughts?  Have a great day.


eraff said...

I have seen a good deal of video on Rosario.... when a guy is this young and talented, and he's already productive, the limit is whatever you dream."

The projections are tough....but the talent says that when it arrives, it arrives very quickly and all at once.

Yes...there's time for taking needed time with him....but he could bust the clock and be MLB very quickly.

Charles said...

I wouldn't be shocked if he ends the year in Lucy. Starts in Bingo in '16 and depending on how that goes, is in Queens at the end of '16 or beginning of '17.

Honestly, after F-Mart, I want all these youngsters to just progress naturally without promotions being forced on them.

Which is exactly what Sandy's front office does. Almost agonizingly slow. However, if someone really busts out like Dilson did, if there's an opportunity, they will be aggressive.

Thomas Brennan said...

I am hoping Amed arrives very quickly. Part of a young talent surge.

Anonymous said...

For me personally....

While Rosario does possess an insanely high ceiling, he is still EXTREMELY RAW. This limits how high I can place him in my prospect list.

Where Molina and Conforto dominated, Rosario struggled.....BUT...he wasn't overpowered. This is good for Rosario but I need to see body development over the off-season and then production in 2015 before I can move him up. Savannah will be a good test for him.

He was #18 on my list in my last update and is probably still holding around that range at the moment.

In reference to Molina....

He is not as Raw as previously thought....BUT....he does have some mechanically flaws and stamina issues. Both of these can be fixed though and he should be jumping up from #17 in the last update to somewhere just outside the Top 10. A good start in full season ball is all he needs to crack that Top 10 now.

Lastly, on Conforto....

He has no business being in Brooklyn, Savannah, or Port St. Lucie. His swing is already very near MLB ready and only needs a few minor tweaks.

If it wasn't for multiple other prospects potentially opening up in AAA next year, Conforto would be a Top 5 guy for me.

Ok....I'm all caught up now...


Thomas Brennan said...

Good job, Chris. My swing has many mechanical flaws. I'm staying in the batting cage. Slo pitch. Softball. With an arm flap just for protection - one can never be too safe.

I think you are right on Rosario. if I combined my lower and upper minors prospects list into one list, he'd be no higher than 15th right now until he shows potential intersects with performance at a higher level. Cory Vaughn once hit very well in Brooklyn, but above there, turbulence all the way.

Stephen Guilbert said...

I like the comment about whatever you dream Rosario can be is attainable. I love that sentiment. Look, any 18-year-old kid not named "Buxton" is going to have bust factor. But this might be the best position prospect we've had in the system since Wright and Reyes were ascending. I love this kid and yea, I think he could move very quickly this year.

I might write a post on this but I think the reluctance to get a long term shortstop (like Andrus, Russell, Castro, Tulo, Taylor etc.) is because either the Mets aren't going to let anyone outbid them for Moncada, they think Rosario is only a season or two out, or that they truly believe Flores can handle SS, OR, some combination of the above. Short of that the Mets are messing this shortstop thing up big time.

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