The Morning Report – 1-5 – San Diego, Xorge Carillo, Matt Reynolds, Stuart Scott


Padres farm system[i]

Speaking of expendable, the Padres had enough pitching prospects to invade a small country. The Padres have major league ready prospects in Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin, and Matt Wisler who will be fighting for a rotation spot with Odrisamer Despaigne, Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson, and Cory Luebke once he’s healthy. This surplus at the position allowed Preller to get creative and trade some of the organization’s highest rated arms.

Mack – Here’s an interesting read on the Padres depleted farm system. I looked over the rosters and salaries[ii]and I don’t see anybody that stands out in their system for the Mets to after. Still, I thought you’d find the story interesting on another slow Mets day.


-Should the Mets front office agree that a fully-developed Xorge Carrillo could at least approach Recker’s production, it would significantly improve their trade assets and likely their overall team.  By settling on Carrillo as the Mets backup catcher, Sandy Alderson could choose either Plawecki or d’Arnuad as his catcher of the future and deal the other for a valuable return at a position of need. Granted, we need to see more of Carrillo before giving him a spot on a talented Mets roster, but his remarkable improvement, array of solid tools, and longtime history of success as a backup, combined with a lack of attention, make him my choice as the most underrated catching prospect in the Mets organization.

Mack – The key statement to take away from this is the fact that we need to see more of Carrillo. He’s hit well as a Met, but as we know, every Met catcher seems to be a backup. The most at-bats he ever had in his 4-year career was 2014… 207, .285. Both Carrillo and Kevin Plawecki’s Mets career will be determined if Travis d’Arnaud can stay happy. If that happens, one of these become trade bait and my guess that would be Plawecki. I would have no problem with Carrillo as my backup in Queens.

 Matt Reynolds[iv]

- Analysis: Booked as a glove-first potential utility infielder, Reynolds’ prospect stock hit rock bottom after he posted an abysmal .226 batting average for the High-A Savannah Sand Gnats in 2013.  Despite his struggles in Savannah, the Mets aggressively pushed Reynolds to Double-A Binghamton to start the 2014 season, and it was in Binghamton where the young shortstop turned his career around.  He opened the season hitting a scorching .355, to go along with a .430 OBP and 75 hits in just 58 games.  His performance earned him a promotion to Triple-A Vegas by midseason, and there, in 68 games, Reynolds continued to flourish by batting .333 with an .864 OPS at the minor league’s highest level. .

2015 Prognosis: Scouts and analysts close to the Mets say that Reynolds may have a shot to break camp in Queens as a backup infielder, however, his lack of power (5 and 6 home runs in 2013 and 2014, respectively) and minor league experience will likely limit him to Triple-A, at least to start the 2015 season.  Should Ruben Tejada and/or Wilmer Flores struggle, Reynolds would be the next man up on the depth chart.  In the worst-case scenario, the Mets call him up in September.

MLB ETA: 2015 as a backup infielder or even a starter should the other Mets’ internal options fail.

Mack - This article features blurbs on Reynolds, Akeel Morris, Michael Fulmer, Gabreal Ynoa, and Jhoan Urena

The loss of ESPN’s Stuart Scott is a loss for all of us. Before there was MLB-TV, ESPN was our sole source for sports news each night and reporters like Scott were there to show us the highlights of each night’s games. We can thank Scott for the saying ‘booyah’, which probably will never be used again in his honor.

At the ESPYS this past July 16, Scott accepted The Jimmy V Award for Persseverance. He said at that time, “when you die, it does not mean that you lose to cancer. You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, and in the manner in which you live.”


Thomas Brennan said...

Morning, Mack.

Xorge Carillo is interesting in that he has gotten few regular season at bats, in 2013 and 2014 by being behind Forsythe and then Plawecki.

He has supplemented that with a lot of winter season ball. Highly encouraging in his 185 at bats this winter were 19 doubles, 8 homers, and a slug % of over .500. Wow.

I would not be completely surprised to see him be the Mets' 2015 back up, but more likely he'll start in AA if Plawecki is in AAA, or in AAA IF Plawecki makes the Mets out of spring training.

So many writers look at full season #s. Reynolds hit 8 or 9 homers in his at bats from late July thru off season ball, the equivalent of less than half a season. He'll hit enough long balls in the future, to go with a .300 average. Still undervalued.

eraff said...

Reynolds Batting Average on Balls in play was an absurd .417 combined!!!...

The MLB average is around 300....Great Hitters do better, not to mention that they make contact---Godd Contact-- MNore frequently.

I'm not a Saber Guy, exclusively...but the Production Level Stats become important at the higher MILB levels (of course at the MLB Levels too!).

If you take ONLY 75 points off that BABIP you get to some "normal sorts of numbers.... a .350 BABIP would place him at mid .700 ops...hey, still a nice result, m But it's based on a Still High (.350( BABIP.

This guy is not yet an assumed plug and play ready fort MLB player/

eraff said...

Reynolds BABIP


Reese Kaplan said...

We see how the Mets value catchers who hit in the .280s -- where have you gone, Juan Centeño? I guess it helps to have the draft pedigree and implicit saving-face pressure) of being a supplemental pick like Plawecki. I'm not saying either Centeño or Carillo would be better than Plawecki, but it's always interesting to see how conspicuous draft picks get a whole lot more leeway than do ones chosen later.

James Preller said...

Bizarre that the writer Mack quoted would say that Reynolds would not make the club as a utility guy because of lack of power . . . when Ruben Tejada is the guy ahead of him on Sandy's depth chart.

To me, if Flores starts at SS, it's essential that the Mets carry a strong-fielding backup SS on the roster (which is a downside to going with Flores at SS rather than, say, at 2B). From what I understand, Reynolds is not great with the glove either, and therefore not a great fit right now. Tejada is better in that role, unfortunately, since Sandy has left us many choices. Given Terry Collins is the manager, the presence of Ruben Tejada on the bench scares me silly; I'd prefer he were banished and some other improvement brought into the fold.

Reese Kaplan said...

Wilfredo Tovar is on the 40-man roster, has had a couple of cups of coffee in the majors and his glove has been described as "special". He also stands to earn 1/4 of what Tejada will make...which is puzzling to me why they didn't send him packing alongside Young, Jr. He's hit .270, .263 and .288 his last three years in the minors -- that's Tejada territory offensively (and he can run a bit, too).

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

I don't know that much about Carrillo and I look forward to seeing more

Mack Ade said...

eraff/James -

It's easier for me sometimes just to cut and paste and show you the stuff Iget to read

Mack Ade said...

A Flores/Tovar in late innings combo would have beena good alternative

Lew Rhodes said...

eraff - I said the same thing about Reynolds a couple of weeks ago.

I think he could be okay, but his 2014 was highly BABIP fueled - this is especially when you look at his AA numbers - his BABIP was .433, but his ISO was a paltry .066 -- you expect a higher BABIP when you are hitting a lot of balls over the wall.

Generally, a high BABIP and a low ISO means a guy would got lucky a lot.

The one other stat that can impact BABIP is line drive percentage - obviously, hard line-drives are more often hits than weak grounds.

So a high slugging or high LD% can give a higher BABIP.

Unfortunately, it is hard to find LD% numbers for the minors - maybe Reynolds hit nothing but frozen rope line drives and that supported his high BABIP

That's why I want to see another year before we give assume he will be the next big thing

James Preller said...

I saw Carrillo in AA and he actually stood out to me. But then everybody looks good when they hit a screaming double down the line. It's impossible for the ordinary fan to tell when it comes to backup catcher, so many of the important job requirements occur behind closed doors.

Given the nature of the job, I actually think Recker has been okay. Love the pop. Wish he could get the BA up to .240 or so, which seems possible. Appears to be a solid guy, smart, well-spoken, good relationships with pitchers, accepts the role, etc.

Who knows!

Lew Rhodes said...

Carillo is an interesting prospect and the opposite of Reynolds to a degree.

Carillo's BABIP in Brooklyn was .225 and in Savannah it was .167 - both are ridiculously low, unless he was hitting all weak grounders.

Now, the last two years in Binghamtom his BABIP was .360 and .327 -- much more around average.

His OPS those two years was .691 and .670 -- not shabby for a back-up catcher.

This was a kid who put up really solid numbers in college, so hopefully the last two years are more indicative of his talent.

His winter numbers are definitely eye opening.

Thomas Brennan said...

Lew, my guess is Reynolds must hit lots of liners. he also works the field, so if you spread guys out, more hard hit balls will fall.

His 2014 BABIP is quite high, but he also jumped 2 levels last year, and hit great in both. So I do not see 2014 being a freak year - I think 2015 will be fine for him too, as a much more experienced guy in AAA to start out.

Lew Rhodes said...

Tom - My hopes are the same as yours - my rose colored glasses are a little dirtier than yours though! ;-)

I think Reynolds will be solid, but I fully expect a regression to the .280ish range with decent gap power - which would be an awesome back-up infielder, future utility player.

It would be nice to be able to have a guy on the bench who doesn't give us a large offensive drop off.

This front office pays very close attention to BABIP - which is why I think Carillo was promoted like he was, and why Reynolds was promoted after a bad year in A-ball - they both had unreasonably low BABIP back then.

Now, Reynolds is going to be sent back to AAA to see what happens when his BABIP normalizes a bit - even with a lot of line-drives, I see about .75 points coming off his BABIP next year.

eraff said...

.417 BABIP without High ISO is a Unicorn!!!...it's a Freak.

For everyone so down on Tejada--- I suggest this is a matter of fact that he's not a Starting MLB SS...at least not a high quality starter. He also lacks significant "tools" that make you feel upside...however, he's an actual, legitimate MLB middle infielder, and a more than capable SS.

I don't think you can watch MLB at any significant depth and suggest that a hopeful pennant contender just hand over a bench slot to guys like Tovar and Reynolds when you have an actual professional ballplayer in Tejada.

As it stands, he's a very capable MIF back up....


Lew Rhodes said...

I agree 100% eraff - Tejada is a good BACK-UP middle infielder.

Who knows - maybe losing his job will help motivate him to work harder and get better.

I need to see Reynolds show more at AAA this year before I would deem him much of an upgrade

Let's not forget that as a 19 year old - Tejada put up a .719 OPS in AA with a .319 BABIP and a 2.57 K/BB rate

He also .685 OPS as a 21 year old in MLB in 91 games.

As a 21 year old, Reynolds put up a .675 OPS in Savannah.

Yes - I hope Reynolds leaps past Tejada, but he hasn't shown enough yet.

As far as Tovar - he likely would have had a better shot last year if he didn't miss time early last year

Last year was his best offensive season - he will likely start at AAA to see if he can come close to replicating his numbers from last year.

But, keep this in mind - in 255 ABs, he had a whopping 11 extra base hits - in his last full season in AA, Tejada had 32 XBH's in 553 AB's - so Tovar is even more of a singles hitter than our good buddy Reuben.

That being said - I admit that Tovar is a much, much, much better fielder.

James Preller said...

I agree on Tejada as a useful backup. However, I don't trust the organization to keep him in that optimal role.

Blame who you want -- I see it as Terry/Sandy both -- but Tejada played far too much last season to the point where today, we still have close to no idea if Flores can actually play adequate SS or not (we know it won't be good, the question is only: "How bad?).

Christopher Soto said...

Just announced today that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be eligible to sign with MLB teams starting July 2nd via the international signing rules. Mets are apparently very interested and scouts say he could be better than his father and speed through the minors and debut in the MLB before age 20.

At this point I'm rooting for Moncada NOT to gain OFCA clearance until late June that way the Mets can blow through their international allotment and sign both of these guys.

Christopher Soto said...

Mets re-sign Buddy Carlyle.

Minor league contract with an invite to camp.

Mack's Mets © 2012