1/6/15

The Morning Report – 1-6 – Dilson Herrera, Ben Zobrist, Buddy Carlyle

18 comments


Nick Melotte’s Top 20 Mets Prospects[i]

-      Dilson Herrera - After coming over from the Pirates in a 2013 trade, Dilson Herrera broke out in a big way this past season. He started the year in the Florida State League and made his way all the way to the Big Apple by the end of the year. Herrera has all the makings for a starting second baseman, combining solid speed with excellent bat control, good defense, and surprising pop for a guy his size (5'10, 180 pounds). He's a guy that gets at least average grades across the board, but he's done very well in previous years despite being two to five years younger than league average. The Colombian native's hitting may be the only above average tool in his shed, but that's a pretty important one, and he fits the mold of a guy that plays above his tools.

o  Mack – We’re going to talk a lot more about Herrera as I continue to countdown my top prospects. All of us were impressed with his year in the minors last season, but the 50 or more at-bats he had with the parent club showed us all that this guy is going to be a star in baseball.- And all this cost the Mets were two players (in a mid-season trade) that had no future with this team. Hell, as it turned out, the two players, John Buck and Marlon Byrd, didn’t even resign with the Pirates. And, to top it off, the Mets got RP Vic Black thrown in as well.

o  This may easily go down in Mets history as the best Sandy Alderson deal –

   
o     Christopher Soto to me  -

§  If the Mets are serious about making the playoffs in 2015, then acquiring a guy like Ben Zobrist could be the difference between the current 83-85 win projection and the 88 wins needed to make the playoffs.

Zobrist has posted +4.5 bWAR or better for 6 straight seasons including (2) 5+ win seasons and (2) MVP caliber 8+ win seasons. Despite the Rays asking price of a top pitching + a top hitting prospect, the market so far this season seems to be paying out (1) 60 grade prospect and (1) additional 50 grade prospect for 1 yr rental guys.

§  If this is the price that the Rays would be ok with, I would immediately consider sending them RHSP Rafael Montero and OF Cesar Puello. Both Montero and Puello are guys that could start for the Rays in 2015 but have no recognizable spot on the Mets current roster.

§  Puello currently has 3 guys ahead of him for the 5th and final bench spot. In addition, if he does not make the team, the Mets could potentially lose him via a waiver claim since he is out of options. It would be wise to get some value out of him now. As for Montero, in the future Mets rotation of home grown talent...he is currently the odd man out with Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, deGrom, and Matz in front of him. Again rather than letting him rot in the bullpen....get some value out of him.

·     Mack – Soto, your proposal makes sense. Me? I consider Zobrist an upgrade to our current situation at shortstop. What I would be willing to trade are surplus prospects we have at other positions. At this point, Cesar Puello is a no brainer, but I’m not sure you can get anyone to include him as a major chip in a trade. My guess is the Mets need to offer two pitchers… like Montero and Gabiel Ynoa or Hansel Robles. I don’t think the Mets will miss either of these guys down the roadbut the Mets will wind up with a huge upgrade at shortstop and a year to work out an extension.

My only reservation… he hasn’t played SS since 2008 and he will play 2015 at 34-years old.

Your thoughts to Mr. Soto…


Hang on to your hat… the Mets signed a player yesterday!

They have offered a minor league contract and an invite to camp to RHRP Buddy Carlyle,  who pitched 27 appearances last year for them at a 1.45, 0.90 clip.

The thing I found surprising here was the fact they didn’t sign him earlier. Carlyle was very effective and has been know to wait his turn in the minors.

18 comments:

Christopher Soto said...

Zobrist played 31 games at SS in 2014 and committed 2 errors in 236 innings.

21 games at SS in 2013 and committed 0 errors in 115 innings.

47 games at SS in 2012 and committed 4 errors in 392 innings.

Extrapolated out to a full ~1400 inning season Zobrist is averaging about 11 errors a full season at SS.

Not bad for a 34 year old.

Over the past 3 years, Fangraphs has him as a average to above average defender at SS.

Thomas Brennan said...

Zobrist works for me at that sort of a price. Bidding likely will be substantial and that may not be enough, I'd think.

Dilson will continue to surprise the pundits to the upside.

Christopher Soto said...

FYI EVERYONE!!!

According to Kiley McDaniel, who is an International Free Agency insider, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has already pre-agreed to a deal for ~$3.2M.


On November 14th he competed in a HR Derby in the Dominican Republic wearing full Toronto Blue Jays gear. He was also video fielding at 3B on Sept. 8th in full Blue Jays gear and multiple times in September taking batting practice in Jays gear.....

I think its safe to say his pre-agreed deal is with them.

eraff said...

Defensive Stats are confusing, but focusing on ERRORS is simple...and misleading!

Range Factor Stats are complex...who's pitching...what is the shift...etc...However...Zobrist range factor stats at both 2b and SS are abysmally low...most especially at SS.

When I think of 1 year of Ben Zobrist, my reaction is I ALREADY HAVE DAN MURPHY!!!....and I dont need to trade for another one! No...they're not an even swap out...Z is better....

...but he's NOT a SS!!!!

Solving Flores with Zobrist is insane!

eraff said...

BTW---apart from the eye test.... Tejada has very strong range factor and fielding percentage stats at both positions

Zozo said...

I would prefer to go with Flores and give him the whole year at shortstop. Keep the prospects and try and sign him next offseason instead. We didn't improve enough for a playoff berth. So since they should have done this last year and let all the young guys show what they have instead of signing Grandy, CY and Colon. The organization set us back a year. So trade as many veterans as you can and let the guys play this year and free up as much money as possible for next years free agency.

Reese Kaplan said...

I'm fully behind Flores and have been since the beginning of 2014 but I have to agree with eraff...errors don't tell the whole story. Range factor considers whether or not the SS will get to a given batted ball. If not for that, it would be an overly simplistic math exercise -- number of RBIs generated minus number of errors allowed (which is a flawed number since not all errors lead to runs), but even with this flawed model, in Tejada's best year he had 36 RBIs and in his worst gave up 12 errors for a net of 24. Assuming Flores gets 65 RBIs (a modest total) and gives up 35 errors (a horrific number) he's still at 30 -- a better number.

Lew Rhodes said...

Zo brist comes as a super utility guy - he backs up Flores, plays for Murhy vs some lhp and let's Wright rest - all total gets him 400 abs

S Finch said...

Zobrist seems like the guy you pick up as the last piece of a solid playoff team. Sure, he's an upgrade, but where exactly? If Tampa Bay thought he was a SS, last year would have been a good time to give Escobar some rest with his awful season.

Plus, I've read elsewhere Tampa Bay wants one of Matz/Montero, plus a top position prospect (I am guessing a Nimmo, Herrera, etc) and that makes sense; just not for the Mets on a one year rental.

I really can't see anyone wanting Puello unless it's a throw in. He has no real position or value on the Mets-don't imagine he would on most other teams.

Mack Ade said...

I think most of us have settled in to accepting the fact that Flores will be the opening day SS; however, we need to keeo looking

TP said...

Mack,
I haven't settled into anything yet. There is a long way to go before ST begins and even longer for opening day. IF Alderson and the ownership are serious about competing in 2015 (and beyond), they have their sights set on the Nationals, not a dopey one game elimination WC spot. And, while the Nats are down some from the end of 2014 at this point, there is a lot of work to be down to close that 17 game gap. Again, I like Wilmer, but the Mets need to add more up the middle, be it Zobrist, Drew, etc. They also need to add more in the pen, specifically on the left side. A marginal big league LHP with 1+ years experience and a whole bunch of unknowns doesn't cut if for a team serious about contending. Salary dumping a SP and going to camp with this squad simply means that they are 2015 pretenders on opening day.

chad said...

"he is currently the odd man out with Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, deGrom, and Matz"

why don't you let syndegaard even pitch well in vegas first, and matz to pitch there at all, before you come to that conclusion.

Montero has already pitched much better in vegas than syndagaard has

Christopher Soto said...

I did state the "future" rotation. I'm implying that their full potential is reached.

If that truly happens, Syndergaard's and Matz's upside is much greater than Montero's that it will push him out.

Quite frankly, Montero doesn't even have a spot in this year's rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, deGrom, and Colon.

The only opportunity he may have is as Harvey's replacement during April to limit his innings.

Christopher Soto said...

Hall of Fame Ballot to be released in 20 mins!!!

According to Ryan Thibs publically released Hall of Fame ballots....so far the following guys are in.

Randy Johnson: 98.5%
Pedro Martinez: 98.0%
John Smoltz: 87.1%
Craig Biggio: 84.1%
Mike Piazza: 76.1%

These guys will unfortunately be dropped from the ballot for not reaching 5%
Carlos Delgado: 1.5%
Nomar Garciaparra: 2.0%
Troy Percival: 0.5%
Sammy Sosa: 4.98%
Don Mattingly: 5.5% (15th/final ballot)

Anonymous said...

Afternoon fella's;
Instead of looking at Zobrist, im looking at it this way!
Trading for a SS who's in AA or higher. One who if Flores flops is ready to step in?
Here is my list
Ketel Marte-Sea
Alen Hanson-Pitt
and of coarse Addison Russell
But Zobrist in my opinion isn't worth trading for right now

Steve

Steve from Norfolk said...

Alen Hanson is a player I've liked since last winter. We seem to have a decent trading relationship with Pittsburgh (at least till the Davis trade). give it a try!

Lew Rhodes said...

Does anyone else think Biggio is criminally overrated?

How does he get into the HOF and not Piazza?

Because he played until he was 41, sucked his last 2 years but got the 200 hits he needed to break 3000?

eraff said...

Regarding Players we could actually use: S Drew at 5-7 million w/ the Yankees....

wow!... I believe this would have been worth a shot. Drop/Package Tejada---net/net 3-4 million added with Drew.

I guess they really just don't like him as a player---I see it as a far more appropriate "Gamble" at a much better time than CY last year.

Mack's Mets © 2012