8/4/15

Mack’s Morning Report – 8-4-15 – Nats, Spot Starter, Steven Matz, Javier Baez

32 comments


ESPN had its highest national MLB ratings Sunday night since 2012 & its highest NYC rating for a Non-Subway Series MLB game since 2007.



The three games series against Washington only produced 20 hits in 98 official at-bats. That’s a team batting average of .204, nothing to write home about, but… here’s the difference.

Five doubles, six home runs, and nine walks raised the OBP to .284, the slugging percentage to .509, and the OPS to.793.

A .793 seasonal OPS would rank the Mets first in the entire league, instead of their current ranked 30th .665.



Michael Baron put out one of those Panic City articles about innings limitations for Mets pitchers this season.

The fact is there is no problem.

First of all, Jonathan Niese and Bartolo Colon can pitch until their arm falls off. That’s 40% of the games left this season.

Steven Matz will be back soon and, because he hasn’t pitched much this season, he also will go nowhere near his projected innings restrictions.

And lastly, Logan Verrett and Dillon Gee are a phone call away from rejoining the team and slotting into the rotation.

My guess is Gee, who has much successful experience at the major league level, will be back this season to help eat up innings.



Fangraphs graded the 58 prospects traded at the deadline:
           
50 FV Group (9): Ranged from 80 to 142 in the Top 200 - Michael Fulmer, RHP, Detroit Tigers Cespedes Trade (NYM) - I compared him to Joba Chamberlain entering the year and Fulmer has improved since then, improving his delivery, command and slider to where he could turn into a 3rd/4th starter, but is close enough that some sort of meaningful big league career is extremely likely.

40+ FV Group (8) - Casey Meisner, RHP, Oakland A’s Clippard Trade (NYM) - 6’7/190 righty is in High-A at only 20 years old and sits 90-93, hittting 94 with three average to slightly above pitches along with projection and plane, but consistency is still an issue.

40 FV Group (12) – John Gant, RHP, Atlanta Braves Uribe Trade (NYM) - Gant has a solid average four-pitch mix and solid feel to project as a back-end starter, thought his skinny frame could limit the amount of innings he can throw.

40 FV Group (12) - Rob Whalen, RHP Atlanta Braves Uribe Trade (NYM) - Whalen flashes an above average fastball and curveball at times, with enough changeup and command to start, but also with 7th/8th inning upside in the bullpen if he can’t develop all the starter traits.

40 FV (12) - Luis Cessa, RHP, Detroit Tigers Cespedes Trade (NYM) -
Cessa will run it up to 95 mph, has a slider, changeup and command that are all average to slightly above and projects as a back-end starter, swing man or 7th inning reliever depending on how the command plays at the big league level.



Steven Matz began to throw Monday (60 feet) and projects out right now to return in September.  Michael Baron reports that the Mets would then return to a 6-man rotation, thus limiting the young arms for the pennant race. Add to this a few spot starts by either Logan Verrett or Dillon Gee and this could all work out.



Patrick Mooney of the  Cubs Insider had an interesting article on the Cubs prospect infielder Javier Baez and how the Cubs manager, Joe Madden, is in no rush to promote him to the majors.




The Mets have the easiest schedule left for the season in the National League and  here is the site to prove it.

32 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

The Mets' OPS sure took a step further in The right direction last nite. Forget the first 106 games, for the next 56, is the team as constructed, and adding Gee, Matz, probably Wright, and Herrera for Sept, as good as the 1986 squad?

Hobie said...

Mack-

Gee is not on the 40-man. Assuming Wright & Blevins are activated sometime in Sept (& Montero?), that's 3 (or 4) cuts to be made. Any thoughts?

Ernest Dove said...

Regarding keeping the arms in the race. ..........
Now that the Mets have an offense, it allows for guys like verrett snd Gee to produce a spot start here and there, and if they, along with Bart or whoever has an off night giving up 3-4 runs, the Mets can actually still WIN those games now! !!

eraff said...

The Mets have some tricky alternatives to the innings management....and we might not be aware of any development in their philosophy about Innings and Pitch Counts, etc.

Six man rotation...rotating a Skipped Start for each of the Pitchers--- that could help with some arm recovery and protection--- yes, it does fritter with their prep habits and schedule... and a Pennant Race!!!

Good Problems!!!

eraff said...

The Mets have been playing a Lineup that is 700 OPS PLus since the trade that provided Johnson and Uribe. The Addition of Cespedes...the re-addition or d'Arnaud... that's a huge influx of Offensive Talent and skill!!!

Take a look at this lineup from just 10 games ago---2 weeks!!!
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201507230.shtml

Or maybe ...DON'T!!!!

One of the worst Lineups ever against the Game's premier pitcher!!!

Amazing!!!

Ernest Dove said...

Yeah Mack I saw that info thrown out there on social media about Mets and possibility of still having shut downs. Im also obviously not buying it. Yes the mets didn't have to lose Conforto nimmo Cecchini or the studs, but they did give up pretty quality minor league arms to acquire what amounts to more than likely 4 rentals. No way mets do that and then shut down 2 or more of their studs.
Perhaps there is already some additional plans to work the heck out of guys like gee, verrett, carlos torres and Gilmartin once September hits. Good enough arms to now ruin numerous leads if they pitch 2-3 innings in a game instead of 1-2 innings in relief on a given night if team is ahead in game.

Ernest Dove said...

Lol...meant to type NOT ruin leads.

Mack Ade said...

Hobie -

Campbell would be a gimme.

I assume A. Torres also

The third could be a return of Conforto to AAA

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

getting 8 innings out of Colon last night... and a win... are really big in any long range plans to conserve arms.

Remember... Gilmartin could also be stretched out if and when Blevins comes back

Reese Kaplan said...

Dillon Gee with 9 innings of 2-run ball last night for Las Vegas...that's a couple of decent starts in a row for him.

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

Gee could be a major piece of the puzzle down the road.

Thomas Brennan said...

Actually 2 consecutive complete games by Dillon. He should help.

bob gregory said...

Wow.
Just amazing!
Exciting times watching a more balanced team play.

I look forward to witnessing how all of the players continue to respond and grow now that they are surrounded by more suitable major league talent.

At this point I am really pulling for D. Wright to be able to make it back as a contributing member of the roster.
He has been a real "stand-up" member of the organization, suffering through these past few years. He gave everything he had every day on and off the field, even when his body must have begged for mercy.
It would be a shame for him to miss out on being a part of the new look lineup and team success.

IBfromWhitePlains said...

Yeah it's like watching a different team. Hell, it is a different team. Let's keep taking 2 outta 3 and really put the pressure on the Nats. Make them sweat. LGM!

Lew Rhodes said...

I wouldn't count on Gee - Sandy may be able to trade him in August for something of low value - at least get something for him and let him return to the majors this year.

Gee is off the 40 man - so we would need to DFA someone to bring him up - although, if he keeps pitching well, there is a post-Sept 1 possibility.

As far as making room for Wright, Blevins, Matz, Goeddel and maybe Monterro - for 4 of them, four folks need to come off the 40 man roster - here is my bet:

1 - Leathersich moves to the 60-day DL - no brainer
2 - Either Recker (likely) or Monell get DFA'ed - no need for 4 catchers on the 40 man roster
3 - Tovar gets DFA'ed off the 40 man - he hasn't appeared in Queens all year, and I don't see him getting a Sept call up given how Tejada has played the last month
4 - Then to break Tom's heart they DFA Danny Muno - with Johnson and Uribe he won't play another inning in the majors this year.

If any of these guys come back before Sept 1 (the date rosters expand), there needs to be a series of demotions as well:

1 - Campbell goes down when Wright comes back
2 - Conforto could go down for a pitcher depending on how he is hitting and the amount of AB's he is getting
3 - Pitching wise - should be Alex Torres - everyone else has been dealing lately - although it could be Robles for Goedell just since they fill similar roles.

In any case, it is nice to be at the point where the Mets have to make tough decisions about the bottom of their roster - the under-performing fodder is nearly all gone

Michael S. said...

Can't say they're as good as 86. That team had dominant pitching and a better lineup. But, this team is certainly good enough to win now.

Cody Pomeray said...

How many Sept. call-ups are the Mets allowed? How does it work? Do they have to be on the 40-man to be a candidate for this? Can somone explain this? Ty.

Couldn't the Mets benefit from an all-glove backup SS (e.g., Tovar) considering Flores is your predominant backup right now?

Champ Stuart is a perfect pinch-runner.

Dario Alvarez is a good LOOGY.

So what about these 3?

Steve from Norfolk said...

Lew,
You made some good predictions, especially the catchers. We only need 3 on the 40-man, especially with a catcher like Plawecki. He makes it a LOT easier to consider moving D'Arnaud to another position. Great catcher defensively, and his hitting seems to be coming together. He's our new LoDuca!

As far as pitching goes,though, I can't see them sending down Robles. He's having a great year, better than anybody else except maybe Gilmartin.

For an opinion from me, I think the Mets will make a strong effort to retain all our deadline pickups. I don't see us being successful with Cespedes, unless his rep keeps him from getting a strong FA bid. I think he volunteered for CF to put himself in line for a better offer as much as wanting a ring out of this year. But he is proving, so far, to be a good teemmate, and I hope we can keep him. If he can cover CF, with his bat, he's Beltran lite.

It's SOOOOOO much fun to be a Mets fan!!!

Steve from Norfolk said...

Cody,

You can carry your whole 40-man roster if you can fit them on the bench. And, yes, they do have to be on the 40-man roster. And, you're right about your callus. Tovar would be nice, and you're not the first person I've seen mention Champ Stuart.

Steve from Norfolk said...

I meant callus, not callus. Ive GOT to get a new keyboard.

Christopher Soto said...

Afternoon Folks....

@Lew

Matz is not on the 60 Day DL so no 40 man roster move is needed for him. That said I agree with all 4 of your scenarios.

@Cody

There is no limit to how many players can be called up in September. A player must be on the 40 man roster (or added to it) in order to be called up. That said...added a player to the 40 man roster starts their options clock. So adding a guy like Champ Stuart would be very unlikely because the Mets would need to option him down to the minors at the beginning of every season. They would likely burn all 3 options before he became a potential full time player.

Hobie said...

Lew-

Pretty much agree with all of that. Maybe Cuddyer returns before Wright and he's the one who bumpsCampbell.

If Wright isn't activated before Sept 1 than Conforto can stay an be in the post season pool of available players.

Adding Wright & Blevins to the 40-man means DFA;ing A.Torres or one of the catchers (Leather to the 60-day is the other slot) IMO.

OF course many will be waived (incuding the rentals) so Aug/Sept deals are still possible.

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

You're right.

Wright deserves to be part of this.

Cody Pomeray said...

Christopher, Steve, thanks. I think I get it.

If not Champ, Cecilliani would be a good situational pinch runner. Wasn't shy about swiping a bag when he was up. Idk how much of a downgrade he is compared to Champ's speed?

I also read a couple Montero mentions earlier in the thread. I heard he had another setback and is no longer even throwing after having gotten into a couple GCL games.

BUddy3 said...

The issue was what happens when Blevins and Wright come off the 60 day DL later in season. Leatherwich got hurt in minors and is not getting ML service time. If you put him on 60 day DL he will get the service time, but maybe Sandy is willing to let that happen.

If not, looks like some combination of Monell, Tovar and Campbell get DFA to make room on 40 man roster. Tovar or Muno will have to go at some point to make room for Rule 5 guys Nimmo, Reynolds, Gsellman, and maybe Taijeron. Any other more obvious candidates?

Mack Ade said...

Cody -

I may be wrong here but Montero was sent to NYC where the doctors cleared him to resume pitching activities.

I'm not sure he has been assigned anywhere again yet.

Cody Pomeray said...

Mack,

Thanks. I heard he was sent to NYC. Him being cleared—that's the part I didn't hear.

I hope you're right.

Lew Rhodes said...

@Cody - Leatherich is already on the 40 man and had ML time this year - so his option years have already started - and - putting him on the 60 day at the end of the season will have minimal impact on his service time.

They are going to have to move him to the 60 day to make room on the 40 man regardless.

@Steve - I agree on Robles - I think it will be a timing issue, etc - it is also possible that they delay Goedell until Sept 1 -- since he has pitched this year, he can be on the post-season roster even if he isn't back before Sept 1

TP said...

Tom,
Love the optimism, but we may want to hold off on comparisons to the '86 Mets. It's not even close.

bob gregory said...

Wheeler wanted to stay a Met.
Flores wants to stay a Met.
Add one more player that wants to be a Met.

Cespedes states that he wants to be a Met for a long, long time.
What a change. So nice to hear players wanting to be a part of the Met organization.

Let's hope Cespedes proves what he is capable of during the next couple months and his love for playing baseball melts Alderson's heart enough to seriously welcome to be part of the Met family going forward.

bob gregory said...

Alright.... I have to ask..
What's with the lineup tonight?

It's not so much that any of the players can't hit where he has placed them. It's just...why?
Why shake it all up when there has been success?
Why move Yoenis out of the 3/4 slots??
He was finally giving the team something consistent to build around.
I would think the team has had so much upheaval all year that the players must be able to better benefit from the comfort from familiar roles in the lineup.

Mack Ade said...

BT

(Blame Terry)

Mack's Mets © 2012