This is an impossible call at this point.
It wasn’t long ago that Zack
Wheeler was considered a better Mets prospect than Matt Harvey. He was a first round pick (sixth pick
overall) in the 2009 draft by the San Francisco Giants and the Mets stole him
away before the trading deadline in 2011 in a trade for outfielder Carlos Beltran. The Mets were going nowhere in 2011
and they had no plans on signing Beltran for the 2012 season. So why not trade
Beltran for one of the top pitching prospects in the game?
Bio – Wheeler came out of East Pauling High School, in
Dallas, Georgia. His senior stat line was 9-0, 0.54, 77.2-IP, 151-K.
Wheeler showed signs of brilliance in his first season
(2013) with the Mets, going 7-5, 3.42, in 17 starts, but injuries set in March
2015 when it was determined that he had a torn ulnar collateral ligament, which
led to Tommy John surgery. He tried to return in
2016, but went down with a ‘mild’ flexor strain in his right arm.
He was shut
down for the 2016 season and is only now returning after basically two years on
the shelf.
David Rubin, of Mack's Mets offers -
In just 2
short injury-filled years, much of MLB has forgotten how dominant Zack Wheeler
looked prior to needing TJ surgery in 2015. In 2014, at the age of 24, Wheeler
morphed in a single season from someone with amazing "stuff" to
someone who had seemingly "figured it out" on his path to becoming
the dominant starter long predicted he would become. He ended with a record of
11-11, with an ERA of 3.54 in 32 starts,
going 185.1 innings with 187 strikeouts, 167 hits given up, 84 runs (73 earned)
14 home runs, 79 walks,and a WHIP of 1.327. While the stats themselves don't
grab you around the throat and yell "DOMINANT," if you watched him
pitch, game by game, you witnessed someone finally harnessing his 5-pitch
repertoire. Zack had the best curve in the Mets organization, and probably
still does. Watching him fool hitters with that 75 mph curve on the heels of
his 97 mph heater was joyful to watch, and with a change-up, slider and
2-seamer, Wheeler seemingly had a pitch for every occasion!
It was crushing to hear, in 2015, that
Wheeler's progress was going to be interrupted by TJ surgery, seemingly SOP
(standard operating procedure) for every fastballer under the age of 26. As
much as I grew to love watching Harvey, it was Wheeler who reminded me of a
great Mets pitcher from nearly 30 years ago, one David Cone, who also mastered
multiple pitches, able to throw any of them for a strike anywhere in the count.
Harvey's heater was more dominant, but Wheeler's goody-bag was filled with more
to choose from. A Mets fans' dream of 2 studs at the top of the Mets rotation
for a decade to come was in full swing until Harvey went down due to TJ surgery
at the end of 2013; that made watching Wheeler succumb to the same problem that
much more alarming.
History seemed to repeat itself; Wheeler
tried to come back in 2016, only to be shut down again due to a mild flexor
strain in his right elbow in August, 2016, and it was decided that although
there was no damage to his ligament, it was best to shut him down for the rest
of the season. Harvey made a very successful return from TJ surgery in 2015,
including a run to the World Series, but was hindered all of 2016 with thoracic
outlet syndrome (TOS) that ended in surgery once more. I still shudder at the
thought of history repeating itself this way. Would we EVER have a healthy
Harvey & Wheeler at the same time???
After again making the play-offs in
2016, minus Harvey, Wheeler and a third, dominant member of the rotation after
mid-July, Jacob deGrom (ulnar nerve surgery, not full-on TJ surgery), the
baseball world witnessed the rise of Thor, aka Noah Syndergaard!! Thor carried
the team to the play-offs (with help from the now-departed Bartolo Colon) and
brought forth the very real possibility that the Mets might have 4
"#1" starters in 2017.
Now, with the 2017 season mere weeks
away, Wheeler returns from not only TJ surgery but also from being practically
forgotten around the game, outside of thousands of Mets fans, like you and me,
who long to see a dominant Wheeler return alongside his rotation brethren. The
thought of having 5 stud starters, plus the returning Robert Gsellman, coming
off of an unexpectedly dominant rookie season, is almost more than any Mets fan
has ever had the courage to dream about.
It's easy, then, to think of putting
Wheeler in the bullpen to start things off this season, giving him time to
regain his strength, allowing Gsellman to remain in the rotation, until perhaps
mid-season, if/once Wheeler shows he's able to maintain a regular workload
every fifth or sixth day. In fact, GM Sandy Alderson already said as much;
manager Terry Collins, however, and much to my delight, said that he'd like to
see what Wheeler has this Spring, and will judge the situation from there. A
healthy Wheeler in the rotation is far better than a healthy Wheeler in the
bullpen; pairing him with someone like Seth Lugo in a 5 inning/4 inning combo
might result in allowing both Wheeler to get used to taking a regular turn and
keeping Lugo's arm stretched out on the heels of starting for us a good part of
2016. Now before you start saying that this would tax the bullpen too much, a
combo of only 2 pitchers, 3 at the most if a closer is necessary, is no more
taxing on the bullpen then most games already are. Also, and of great
importance, Wheeler is used to starting and is already coming back after a long
absence; teaching him how to relieve at this point in his career might impede
his return if he's either physically or mentally unable to get used to a
totally different physicality and mindset necessary to be successful out of the
pen.
A healthy Wheeler is worth far more in
the rotation than he ever will be one to three innings per outing, and, IF he
is indeed 100% recovered, I predict 20-24 starts and a record of 10-5 and an
ERA somewhere below 3.50. Remember, Wheeler hasn't been sitting on his hands
doing nothing during his long hiatus; he's been studying pitching, watching
games, expanding the mental aspect of his game while waiting for his body to
catch up. A HEALTHY rotation that includes Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz,
Wheeler & Gsellman is one for the ages- and I am betting that these
thoroughbreds will take our beloved boys from Flushing all the way to the
finish line in 2017!! After all, having followed this team for nearly all of my
53 years, I am entitled to dream- but in this case it's FAR closer to reality
than it's ever been, at least since 1986!!!!
Opinion – So far, so good, huh?
I really think that Wheeler will work his way back into the Mets rotation come opening day, be it a 5-man or 6-man. 6-man makes more sense to be since there will be innings restrictions on many of the horses here.
Let's follow this one closely.
It could be the key to a great season.
I really think that Wheeler will work his way back into the Mets rotation come opening day, be it a 5-man or 6-man. 6-man makes more sense to be since there will be innings restrictions on many of the horses here.
Let's follow this one closely.
It could be the key to a great season.
3 comments:
David Rubin got me excited again about Wheeler - good job, David!
Oh, my gosh, if Wheeler comes back 100%, what a rotation! I’ve made the point before, his elbow was a problem for a long time before it blew. One would have o surmise that would hamper a guy, at least to some degree (e.g., diminished command). Imagine if he returns healthy – he could be better than before.
Good article timing award: Wheeler starts today vs. Nats. Should be very revealing.
His picture today on Mets’ website shows him in the midst of a pitch, and you can see the scar and redness around it. Hopefully he is better than 100% going forward.
Wheels has some of the most natural movement on his FB and induces such weak contact that he would be best served to throw strikes and allow the ball to be out in play, preferably on the ground. Not sure if we see the Fab Five rolled out every week, but it will manifest in some combination over the course of the season and that should make Met fans very, very happy.
Anon Joe F
Yeah, I miss David's original posts.
Hopefully, he will have some time from his busy life to someday return here on a regular basis.
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