2017 New York
Mets: Outfield Outlook
The NY Post
reported that one baseball insider said he’d be very surprised if Brandon Nimmo
survives the trading deadline this year.
Not so fast here,
there is more to consider in the New York Mets 2017 outfield.
The signing of
Yoenis Cespedes brings with it the expectation of 30 home runs, 90 runs batted
in, and, we hope, about 130 games.
Cespedes appears
to have finally found a home in the big leagues in New York. In spite of what his agent may have floated,
demand may not have been as high for him as presented. There are questions that linger over the
talented but enigmatic outfielder including his actual age, his ability to stay
healthy, and the under-reported issues with his attitude.
After being all
but a savior to the New York Mets 2015 run to the World Series, when Cespedes
did not hit, Cespedes turned sullen, and took this attitude to both the field
and the club house. When production
turned south in the post season, he even showed a willingness to blame a rookie
for his own mistake. In Spring 2016, he
showed up with the self promoting circus like presentation, from his horse to
his fancy cars, of which the younger players could not help but be influenced
by. The fretting of both Terry Collins and Alderson came out in early, cautious
statements, particularly as the Mets did not get off to a great start.
Cespedes’
language shows a lack of familiarity with humility, and has run up against
another, howbeit, cleverly masqueraded one in Sandy Alderson.
Alderson has
a very high opinion of his own opinion.
When Daniel Murphy did not want to be involved in any extra-baseball
activities regarding sexuality, this was an affront to the moral narcissism of
Alderson. There was never a chance he
would offer Murphy a viable contract.
With Cespedes, Alderson had to make some personal compromises and concessions
in order to sign Cespedes, and in exchange, got a few from Cepedes.
Alderson, for
example, bristled when told that he and the Mets were to communicate to
Cespedes through Cespedes’ “people” regarding attitude, toning down his
flamboyance or about the hours of golf Cespedes devoted himself to. In fact, Alderson knows that Cespedes is
fluent in English, but abides with the translator, in exchange for productivity. No such
concession was made with Murph, as Dilson Hererra appeared destined to take
over second base. (Alderson was also
frustrated with Murphy’s defense). The
union between Cespedes and Alderson is one of an uncomfortable necessity: Cespedes needs New York and New York needs
Cespedes’ bat.
The early
promotion of Cespedes in March was that he was in phenomenal shape and getting
up early for work out. The intimation was clear: he was serious this Spring, compared to the
previous. His Spring Training
productivity thus far has been thrilling. We hope it continues, but the first
sign of a slump and we may see him refuse to run out a ground ball, dog a fly
ball, and return to his “Potentate” persona.
He gets his adulation in the slow tater trots, but that comes from
hitting the big one. He is, in spite of
his talent, a risk for the Mets.
Michael Conforto
and Brandon Nimmo
The Mets must
consider that Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are both options that the 2017
Mets are going to need in the outfield this season. They should be getting plenty of at bats.
Conforto has the
talent of an all-star slugger. He has
the drive, intellect and talent to go very far, but will need at bats. We are
looking at a possible .300 plus line drive hitter who bangs out 25 home runs
and provides steady defense. Always in shape, he has showed up in Spring
training this year with significant muscle mass addition and looks
terrific.
With Nimmo, we
have an infectious positive attitude and late maturing strength. He is a strong line drive hitter who may be
of best value as a fourth outfielder.
The Mets should think long and hard about what Nimmo may bring. His is a big, strong kid and may begin to
show more long ball power, as well as one with the potential to bring 40
doubles to the offense.
Cespedes’ strength
is in his legs. He has tremendous lower
body strength in projecting the bat forward and as such he is at constant risk
for leg and groin injury. He is, in this
regard, similar to the power arm pitchers:
we watch in awe, while waiting for an injury.
Besides the risk
of injury to Cespedes, there is the declining productivity of Curtis Granderson
to consider in the ensemble of the 2017 New York Mets’ outfield
configuration.
Curtin
Granderson
Curtis
Granderson’s contract and Alderson’s ego are also a factor here.
Alderson is not
one to own an error, hence the playing time of De Aza last year. With the exception of a few week period, he
did not bat his weight yet received valuable playing time over others. When
Collins was asked about this, he generally diverted attention away and kept the
company line. He was not happy about
penciling in De Aza day after day just to justify the millions Alderson
committed to him; he should have been J-Bayed well earlier than he was.
Granderson is a “locker room guy”; one of whom both Alderson and Collins like
around the kids. He leads by both
example and by encouragement. He is
someone who the Mets should consider maintaining ties with after his playing
career is over.
As an
outfielder, he is another year older and age appears to have caught up to him
in a steady decline. He holds value to
the team: he is a natural leader, he
maintains a positive attitude regardless of personal production, which is
evident in both his words and his effort.
Pouting and dogging by a millionaire impacts young players. With Granderson, we have a strong positive
influence, yet his productivity is not such that should jettison Nimmo,
nor cut into the playing time of Conforto.
Grandy is not a
viable lead off center fielder for us at his age. Competition for the starting outfield
positions should take precedent over contract consideration.
Juan
Lagares.
Lagares is
another player fans have taken to.
Hidden injuries appear to have impacted his swing, and it is of concern
that some of the adjustments made to play through injuries may have settled
into things. He remains a solid
defensive outfielder, but thus far this Spring, his offensive struggles appear
to continue. He is likely the odd man out, barring a trade of Nimmo.
Jay Bruce.
Bruce is a
talented hitter. He seemed overwhelmed
and unhappy coming to New York and like Conforto’s slump, it fed upon itself and
the heavy New York scrutiny was likely very difficult to cope with.
Bruce is more physically
durable than Cespedes and could bring 30 homers and 100 RBIs should he find
contentment in New York. Thus far this
Spring, he appears far looser and more engaged with his teammates, hitting the
ball with authority and power.
He is also
playing for a contract this year which traditionally works out well for the
player. If he is playing well and there
are no indications of him wanting to stay, he, rather than Nimmo, might be on
the trading block. I do not expect him
to slump the way he did upon arrival in 2016.
The 2017 New
York Mets outfield has unanswered questions, but not perhaps to the level that
media suggest. While media loves a
story, fans love competition instead.
Can Conforto
take over center field? Or, should he be
wearing a first baseman’s glove?
Can Nimmo fill
in for Bruce or an injured/tired Cespedes?
Can the Mets get
productivity from Cespedes and keep his legs healthy?
Will Alderson
insist on playing the contract over the productivity with Granderson?
Next: 2017 New York Mets Infield Outlook
3 comments:
Peter, welcome to the staff of Mack's Mets.
Lagares needs to break out in the second half of spring training. We need his glove in centerfield, but he has to hit above the Mendoza line, even if he is only going to be a late inning substitution.
The Mets would probably be very happy if someone who was in need of a centerfielder rang Alderson's chimes with a trade offer. That way they could be out from under the financial obligation signed when he was still a player on the offensive upswing. It might take a package, however, of Lagares plus a spare middle infielder or a spare bullpen arm to get another team to bite. For the Mets it would be about salary reduction and opening up some more ABs for either Nimmo or Conforto. Having two spare outfielders both lefties with Granderson and Bruce also lefties and Cespedes having reverse platoon splits is far from ideal, but dollars and cents often trump all other considerations. What I'd really like to see is many more reps in CF for both Nimmo and Conforto to see if either of them appears capable of handling the role on a full time basis since Granderson is obviously in decline in all aspects of his game.
I think that Granderson is the dead weight here. I would like to see Lagares get a serious shot this year to see if there's more in there when healthy. I think there could be. And of course, Conforto must play. I know they want to keep Granderson - and he has absolutely zero trade value with his contract - so I'm hoping that Bruce is gone early, and Grandy on the bench. I don't believe this FO will manage to make either of those happen though, so expecting Grandy in CF and Bruce in RF a lot, with Conforto in Vegas. And I think we'll pay dearly for those mistakes.
Nice piece, by the way. And welcome.
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