Casey Wentworth -
Second Place behind the Nationals, which
are still a more balanced team with a whole lot less of the annual injury type
issue concerns. But right on these NY Mets heels should be the Miami Marlins,
it just depends if Miami can keep their pencil thin starting rotation healthy
and then on the field all season.
Gary McDonald -
I'm taking the Mets to go all the way
this season. I'm not in love with the
moves the Nationals made. Their lack of
depth in the pitching department, no set closer, and questions throughout the
lineup makes them vulnerable. The Mets have to have the odds in their
favor to stay healthy this year, after
last year’s rash of injuries. The Mets
also are deeper in pitching and position players then I can remember in a long
time. The Marlins are thin pitching wise will have a good start but fade, the
Braves are young but not there yet, same with the Phillies. Mets take division
in a close one, take NLDS,NLCS, and the Series.
Thomas Brennan -
Yoenis Cespedes will win the MVP, Jake deGrom will
win the Cy Young, Rob Gsellman will win Rookie
of the Year, and the Mets will Win the World Series. And we will all be smiling. Jennry Mejia will
not pitch.
Jack Flynn -
There is the known, there is the
unknown, and in between there are the predictions.
In one universe, the Mets have built a
110-win team that steamrolls to a World Series crown. Syndergaard and deGrom
are 20-game winners, Matz and Harvey win 15 of their own. Gsellman, Lugo,
Wheeler and Montero shuttle between the the fifth starter's spot, the bullpen
and Las Vegas at the whim of Terry Collins, who deftly handles this
embarrassment of riches and earns a Manager of the Year award. There are no
rest stops in a lineup that sees at least 20 home runs from every position
player except third base - and that guy somehow gets on base enough to score
110 runs and steal 35 bases (hint: it's not David Wright).
In another universe, the Mets have built
an 75-win team that frustrates us all and starts making the Red Bulls look like
interesting late-summer viewing. Syndergaard dominates, but walks too many
batters. deGrom and Matz battle injuries. Harvey realizes that having 24 ribs
is essential to being a viable starter in the National League. Gsellman and
Lugo prove to be Quad-A starters, Wheeler never makes it all the way back and
Montero gets released. Cespedes has 70 extra-base hits, but the position
players strike out too much and too many balls get past them on defense. Reyes
pulls a hammy, Duda and Walker grab their backs and D'Arnaud only throws out
the pitchers bold enough to try to steal on him. It's a disaster.
So what will happen? Some combination of
the two, of course. I suspect that the established longhairs in the starting
rotation will combine for 35 wins, and Gsellman joins the Hair Club for Men by
chipping in 13 to 15 of his own. The outlook is not so rosy for Matz, Harvey
and Wheeler, none of whom reach the heights we've dreamed up for them. That
makes Seth Lugo the difference between a division winner and a wild card berth
- and do you want to bet that heavily on Seth Lugo?
The lineup is talented and younger than
people realize, but they are going to strike out too much and too many unearned
runs are going to artificially deflate the pitcher ERAs. Jay Bruce will be at
first base sooner rather than later, but not because his bat has earned him the
role. Rene Rivera will be the starting catcher by the All-Star Break, and the
Blue Jays can breathe a sigh of relief in knowing that they only traded one
franchise corner stone for RA Dickey.
Final verdict: 89 wins and a single bad
night in the office means that Citi Field will not see a home playoff game in
2017.
Reese Kaplan -
Despite the injury issues, the puzzling
lineup decisions by the manager and the lack of any external resources added to
improve the roster, I do believe the Mets are well positioned to win the
division. The Nationals are the primary
competition but they are slightly thin in the starting rotation and very thin
in the bullpen. Furthermore, the depth
that helped last year -- Trea Turner -- now is
part of the starting lineup, thus watering down a suspect bench. Oddly, as much as I've criticized the Skipper
over the years, I feel if he suffers any health issues that keep him away from
the club for any extended period of time (2 weeks or more) then the Mets may
indeed crumble as they have not prepared a succession plan for his inevitable
replacement.
Many feel the Marlins are poised to take
the next step forward but there is no pitching there to sustain a long run even
if the bats remain healthy and productive.
The Atlanta Braves are the surprising team that's going to sneak up on
people with a very impressive pitching staff, some key offensive players and an
attitude of bringing in the resources necessary to improve. The Phillies have also got some interesting
offensive players but they do not have the pitching yet to compete beyond the
first and second starters.
Christopher Soto -
The Mets will return to the promise land
and retake the NL East title from the Nationals in 2017. While both teams have
very similar quality rotations…the Mets have the required depth on both the
pitching and hitting side to survive any injuries to pretty much any spot on
the team that is not the C position. Should an injury occur in the Nationals
rotation….they have nothing behind their front 5. In fact, there is only 1
other SP on the 40 man roster….and that’s AJ Cole who
was recently shut down due to an arm injury. Not to mention, the Nationals lost
50% of their bullpen which ranked 2nd in the MLB. The new group of young upside
arms + aging veterans look like a SEVERE downgrade from last year’s group.
David Rubin –
Waking up on Sunday morning, I felt like
2016 all over again, being greeted with the news that Steve Matz was going to
skip his start on Monday due to "elbow tenderness." And yet, I know
that it is NOT 2016 all over again- it's 2017, and I truly feel that the injury-bug
won't bite as hard for a team that showed its' resilience last year where
others would've simply crumbled under the weight of losing 3/5 of your starting
rotation. A truly motivated Yoenis Cespedes; the
most devastating hurler not named Clayton Kershaw; a logjam in the outfield of
30+ homer-hitters; and a number of top level prospects ready, willing and able
to step up when and if needed! I really think that most writers have under-sold
just how great this collection of ballplayers really is. One reason?
Sabermetricians continually under-value or simply dispute the role that team
chemistry has on an organization. Granted, it's not a quantifiable statistic,
but it IS completely visible to anyone who follows the team. Cabrera waiting to
take the helmet off of the teammate who just homered! Starting pitchers
creating a pool where the winner is the one with the best offensive stats!
Teammates who speak about each other in glowing terms!!! It's something special
to be a part of, and it's not simply Mets fans wishing that the "Magic is
Back" - it IS! Every time Thor
brings it at 100mph; every time deGrom runs one up at the shoulders and the
hitter can't help swinging; every time YO hits one so hard, so fast, that you
haven't even finished a breath before the ball is over the wall; every time
Walker hits a homer to win a game; and every time we look at the depth of the
minor leaguers waiting for their chance to join a team that REALLY feels like a
team!!! 1992 never felt so far away, and 1969 & 1986 never felt so close!
Mets win the division, and beat the Cubs in 5 games to face the Indians in the
World Series!!!!! And then it's Mets in 6!!! That's my story, and I'm sticking
with it!!! Now pass that Rum, I've got a hot cuppa Joe waiting!!!!
Mack –
I’ve been saying all off season that the
Mets are going to come in third in the NL East. My early prediction was based
on a combination of what felt was superior talent in Washington verses the
ongoing Mets health problems that always keeps a high percentage of their
primary talent on the disabled list. I was just about ready to move my
prediction up to second when I got news about the Steven
Matz setback. Add that to Juan Lagares and
David Wright and here we go again. Still, the
Mets pitching depth (with the bonus addition of Seth
Lugo and Robert Gsellman) and the
eventual mid-season arrival of Michael Conforto should
keep them in the race until the end. I now have them finishing second around
five or six games behind the Nats. I do expect them to win their wild card game
(Syndergaard pitching) and moving on to the World Series after they beat the
Cubs in six, but, in my opinion, it stops there with a loss in the World
Series.
6 comments:
Jack Flynn's first scenario will come to pass. 110 wins - except that I include the 14 in spring training to get there!
I think people are under estimating the Braves. They had a good 2nd half last year and have a lot of young players (not named Colon & Dickey) that will likely continue to show improvement. I'm not worried about the Marlins/Phillies at all, but the Braves? Yes.
I agree, Mets seem to have much better depth to withstand some injuries. I think the biggest blow would be an injury to the elite talent: Cespedes, DeGrom, Syndergaard. I feel like we are use to not playing with Harvey/Wheeler/Matz already with their constant injuries.
Trying to find Braves 2nd half record and failing. However, I did find out on baseball reference they finished the year 20-10, tied with the Sox for the best record in the last 30 games. Mets were tied for third with the Indians with a 19-11 record.
Thomas Brennan: I'd be happy with 96 wins this season!
I just don't have a handle on how this season will play out. From my ne angle, it looks like we have a team capable of winning it all. From another, there are so many question marks, and so much juggling to be done by a manager whose decisions I don't trust, that it could easily all fall apart. Aside from the obvious (health of the rotation and Cespedes absolutely cannot get hurt) I think that a lot this season will hinge on; the bats of Duda, d'Arnaud, and Flores, the maturation of Handel Robles, and the duo of Reed and Familia.
Simple. Healthy, Mets win 100 (+/-); plagued with injuries, .500 (-ish).
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