Jack Flynn - Bullpen Building

A report in Newsday last week suggested that the Mets are internally debating an eight-man bullpen for the 2018 season. It’s not necessary. A simple re-imagining of bullpen usage – one that “pairs” the back-of-the-rotation starters with a reliever capable of throwing two-plus innings – would allow the Mets to carry seven relievers and not have to worry about wearing anyone out.

The underlying concept – limiting less durable starting pitchers to two trips through the opposing batting order before aggressively using the bullpen in an attempt to carry the game to the conclusion – is a more sound strategy than old-school baseball observers would like to admit. Starting pitchers have historically fatigued as games they pitched have worn on; but in today’s game, the difference is that bullpens are deeper and a fresh reliever is more often a better option than a tiring starter.

Now this concept doesn’t apply to Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, who are generally considered to be legitimate aces. When they are healthy, it’s not unreasonable to consider deGrom and Syndergaard two of the 10 best starters in the National League. Both have earned the right to pitch deep into games and there’s little reason to believe that new manager Mickey Callaway will have a quick hook with either deGrom or Syndergaard.

That said, the Mets have six candidates for the other three spots in the starting rotation – and none of them have earned the same opportunities that deGrom and Syndergaard have.

Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler have the best pedigree, but none of them pitched even 100 innings last season and none of them can be confidently counted on for that number in 2018. Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo and Rafael Montero have all shown flashes, but Gsellman is the only one of the group to make more than 20 starts last season. There’s a lot of potential, but very few guarantees.

Each of those six starters are, for better or worse, finished products. None of them have anything left to learn in Las Vegas; they are either going to make the adjustments necessary to be effective major leaguers in 2018, or they are going to be out of baseball in the next two years or so.

Callaway can hold an open competition for those three rotation spots in Spring Training, knowing that all six candidates can potentially make the big club no matter what happens. The three guys who aren’t selected for rotation spots can be paired with the three guys who are, and they can even prepare as though they may be called upon to complete a starter’s normal workload if necessary.

This creates a bullpen with three long men – all of whom will see themselves as misplaced starters with something to prove to the new manager – and four traditional relievers that will generally only work from the seventh inning on. The Mets already have three of those relievers identified in Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos and Jerry Blevins.

None of them are signed beyond this season and therefore the Mets have no reason to “protect” them from high workloads. Callaway should be preparing to get at least 60-70 innings from each man, even if it means the occasional multi-inning appearance.

It also leaves a single spot open in the bullpen, which can be reserved for a prominent free agent signing or trade yield. This concept potentially leaves someone like Paul Sewald or Hansel Robles slated for Las Vegas, but there’s not a single back-end reliever in the Mets system that is the difference between a winning or a losing season. Better to stretch them out in Spring Training and prepare them for occasional two or three inning appearances now, so they can fill in when the injury bug inevitably hits one or more of the major league pitchers.