Reese Kaplan -- Reading Between the Lines Part 2

Mack will kill me for saying this, but perhaps for the sake of your own sanity perhaps now is not the time to read all of the media coverage and speculation about what the Mets will do during this Hot Stove Season.  First of all, it’s depressing to hear again and again that the Mets don’t have the financial resources (or inclination) to spend for top tier talent.  Where have we heard this song before?  Oh, right…every since Sandy Alderson came in the mandate has been to cut payroll and save on expenses. 

Wait, but didn’t we also hear that the financial problems were in the rearview mirror?  Didn’t we hear that the Madoff mess was over?  Didn’t we read about the new TV deals?  Didn’t we read about the money saved by David Wright’s insurance?  Didn’t we witness a huge fire sale that saved tens of millions of dollars in salary dumps?  Didn’t we hear as recently as last year that the team was “all in” to win?

The reality is that the club will not spend for the cream of the crop.  That means no Wade Davis, no J.D. Martinez and no Jake Arrieta.  As frustrating as it is to acknowledge this fiscal reality, we’ve all been watching this club during the previous seven years.  Do you remember Eric Campbell batting cleanup?  Do you remember great pitchers like Aaron Laffey and Shaun Marcum?

I’d love to believe that things will change.  I still don’t expect real money to be spent lavishly on premier free agents, but I can hope that it will be spent judiciously and effectively on whomever they deem worthy of addition to the roster. 

The first order of business to me is the starting rotation.  I’ll concede that Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard should be healthy and as dominating a duo as there is in the league.  After that it’s a mess.  Matt Harvey is recovering from multiple health problems.  Ditto Steve Matz.  Ditto Zack Wheeler.  None of the trio rumored to be on the market – Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Rafael Montero – showed enough consistency that you’d feel confident trotting them out there every five days.  So by my count you go into 2018 with two proven and formidable starters.  After that it’s a lot of hopes and prayers.

Again, get the Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta daydream out of your heads.  For that matter, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn both rejected a sure thing $17.4 million payday after receiving QOs, so that means they are pipe dreams as well.  We’ve heard the name Jason Vargas but he’s coming off a deal well north of $10 million for half a season of good production. 

No, you’re going to have to get creative.  The Mets do not have the international bonus pool money (nor the juevos) to be serious players for Shoei Ohtani though being able to pitch and take ABs in the outfield would indeed solve two problems in one.  However, unless they arrange some trades for international pool money this weekend before posting bids are due on Monday, say sayonara to the Japanese Babe Ruth.

Instead you have to start looking at the secondary and tertiary tiers of starters.  I’m frankly not interested in reunions with either Bartolo Colon or R.A. Dickey.  Neither did enough last year to convince me there’s much left in the tank. 

Instead I’d be looking at Jhoulys Chacin, Andrew Cashner, Deck McGuire (who?), and others who are both healthy and on the lower end of the starting pitcher salary spectrum.  After all, by some miracle you might wind up with a healthy Matt Harvey playing for his next contract, a less brittle Steve Matz, a hard throwing Zack Wheeler – then you have an excess. 

I can see the club dangling the other three starters in deals, but frankly if someone REALLY wanted to have at Harvey, Matz or Wheeler I’d certainly not hang up the phone.  Remember what I always remind people – you have to give to get – and if you aim to get players to help in other areas then you may have to give up something of value even if it hurts to do so.  Remember, the staff had a 5.01 ERA last year so it’s not like we’re offering up Sandy Koufax.

In more efficient spending, I don’t even advocate them making a reunion with Addison Reed.  Don’t get me wrong.  His presence would be a terrific addition, but they have some good arms already for the back end of the pen, including Jeurys Familia, A.J. Ramos and Jerry Blevins.  Instead I want to see them value the bullpen through BOTH quantity and quality.  Guys like Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Pat Neshek, Steve Cishek or Pete Moylan won’t break the bank but will keep the team in pretty much every game.  That would be a 180 degree turnaround from the Josh Smoker/Hansel Robles/Josh Edgin 2017 season.  More importantly the shaky rotation is going to require a solid pen and it’s less expensive to build there than it is to pay for starters.

The whole whisper campaign about Dom Smith may or may not have merit, but don’t they already have a solid backup in Wilmer Flores?  Yes, it’s possible one of them could be gone in a deal, but what is the fascination with Carlos Santana who is good for about .259/23/79 and would cost a bundle.  Don’t you think either of these first base options (or a platoon) could exceed those numbers?

Similarly, for all of those people clamoring for a 2nd baseman, I am happy to give Wilmer Flores a 1-2 month trial there while Dom Smith mans 1st base and T.J. Rivera heels.  Granted, a guys like Brian Dozier, Dee Gordon or even Jason Kipnis would be nice additions in trade, but you don't have that many chips in your pile that other clubs would want.  

No, the area where I think they do need to spend is in the outfield.  I love Juan Lagares’ arm and defensive acrobatics but he’s never hit enough nor stayed healthy enough to warrant starting.  If Lorenzo Cain was the sole “big name” addition to the roster with Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto flanking him, I would enter the season a happy camper.

What is your priority in spending?  I’m thinking the $16-$18 million (per year) necessary to lock up leadoff hitter Cain, then 3 or so solid middle relievers at about $3-5 million each.  There’s $29 million spent leaving very little on starting pitching.  However, if Mack is right about the payroll going up then there should be enough to add 2 of these tertiary type starters.  THEN you can afford to bank on hopes and prayers for health of the big five starters. 

By the way, if the right deal could be struck for Juan Lagares, I’d do it to clear payroll this year and next.  Ditto Travis d’Arnaud.  Say you have $42 million to spend?  How would you do it?