Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2013

Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2013

2013 begins to be a time close enough to the draft to find it getting harder to separate busts (DUDS) from solid picks (DUDES).  

 

The Mott the Hoople guy thinks they're all young DUDES, but I'm of a different opinion and told him he should stick to rock.

Overall, I think 2013 was another weak Mets draft year because not enough toolsy guys were picked.  There were some real DUDS, no overwhelmingly clear DUDES chosen.

DUDS

2ND ROUND ANDREW CHURCH, SP: I have not given up all hope on Church, but his combo in 2017 of weak ERA in A ball coupled with a low strikeout rate has me heavily leaning towards DUD....a 2nd round pick should have more high octane velocity.  One hopes, though, that Church pitches every Sunday.  Let's hope it's not in the church softball game.

3RD ROUND OF IVAN WILSON #76: I was tempted to put this bust of a draft pick in the "dude" pile anyway, as I liked the pick - he had all the tools...except for the tool that would fill in the gaping hole in his bat.  His strikeout rate, as he getting as high as full A ball, was far too high.  

 

It seemed he had physical talent similarities to Aaron Judge, although unlikely to ever be nearly as good, so hopefully he did not hang up the spikes too soon. But a wash out that early, picked that high?  DUD.

3RD ROUND SP CASEY MEISNER #84: traded in the 2015 pitching prospect fire sale during a strong season, the now 22 year old Meisner then went an awful 1-14 in 2016 and rebounded to a mediocre 10-9 in 2017.  His K rate dropped to under 6 Ks per 9 IP after his promo in mid-season to AA.  

 

Seems like a possible mediocre future MLB fringe starter, so this pick seems. much more DUD than DUDE right now, given that he was a #84 pick, but he might swing the pendulum towards DUDE in 2018 yet.  Not a hard enough thrower to me to go here in round 3.  Draft flamethrowers in the 3rd round instead, that's my free advice.

4TH ROUND LJ MAZZILLI, IF, 116TH pick: Awful selection. LJ gets a 4 DUD Rating.  Too old at draft time, too mediocre in talent to be picked anywhere in the top 10 rounds....and Cody Bellinger was available.  What would a smart team do when faced with a choice between these two?  We all know what the Dodgers did.  Smart.

5TH ROUND OF JARED KING: Simply put : Bust pick....less ability than Mazzilli, lacked power,  and average speed.  You cannot waste 5th round picks on guys with his talent level. All-too-typical dumb Mets pick, when you should be drafting guys with power in the 5th round, not ones with (if all goes well) a 5th OF ceiling.  DUD.

6TH ROUND OF CHAMP STUART: Worth, IMO, taking a 6th round flyer on this super-fast outfielder, but like Ivan Wilson, this man's prodigious strikeout rate has him looking for all the world like a bust.  He has shown grudging progress year by year, but he appears to be a DUD pick.  

 

He should still get another year or two to see if the K rate can be normalized, given his speed gift.  Watch Matty Alou tapes, Champ.  Do like Matty Alou do.

9TH ROUND OF PAT BIONDI: Like Champ Stuart, except not as fast, less power, and also a weak hitter.  I would have picked a power hitter, rather than a no-power outfielder, with this pick.  DUD.  Should have been at best a teens pick.

DUDES - not too many, not too convincing:

1ST ROUND PICK, #11 OVERALL, 1B DOMINIC SMITH: tough call right now, but I still think Smitty hits better in 2018 after shedding some weight over the winter and turns into a good MLB 1B.  

 

Jury, sadly, is still out as to whether this #11 overall pick in the 2013 draft is dud or dude... I will cautiously vote DUDE.

7TH ROUND 1B MATT OBERSTE: a solid player and decent hitter, he seems to have been picked around the right round.  His power has been disappointing for a big guy, and my take is it may well keep him out of the majors.  Still, can't argue with him being a 7th round selection.  Maybe he'll fix the power and make it somehow.

8TH ROUND SP RICKY KNAPP: similar to Oberste, I give Knapp a very cautious DUDE Rating, only because I believe he has performed as one might expect a typical 8th rounder would.  I would have picked a harder thrower with that pick, if at all possible.  He ran headlong into the Vegas Wall in 2017, and his K rate was weak.  Seems like he has a AAAA ceiling, another Tyler Pill type.  Roll the dice and draft power arms.

10TH ROUND IF LUIS GUILLORME: a very solid 10th round pick. The Glove Wizard needs to continue to look for ways to add power and more OBP to make him major league caliber. 2018 will be key for Luis, but it was a smart selection by the Mets, although I have a preference for guys with power, if you haven't caught on yet to my repetition.

Tyler Bashlor

 

Thankfully, the draft didn't end at round 10 for our Metsies. In the 11th thru 13th round, the Mets picked very well indeed, grabbing fireballing reliever Tyler Bashlor, Tom Brennan utility favorite Jeff McNeil, and big righty Kevin McGowan.  

 

My only problem with those 3 DUDES?  That they weren't picked during the first 10 rounds by da Mets.  Shoulda been.

I really like all 3 of these picks in 11 through 13.

Even with them, I give the Mets a C- on this draft.  

 

Poor job overall in drafting, once again. 

 

Power pitching; power hitting.  There's your formula.