Reese Kaplan -- Reading Between the Hot Stove Lines

With the close of the 2018 season which saw tremendous power and horrendous pitching, is a sea change afoot for the Mets organization?  Obviously that flawed formula didn’t work, and not matter how you point to injuries as the key to the disaster, the fact remains that the club was flawed on many levels.

As you read the usual Hot Stove articles you get the sense that there is a little bit of momentum to the thought that a radical shift in orientation may be in the offing.  Reports have surfaced that Juan Lagares is expected to be the starting centerfielder.  No one will dispute his Gold Glove credentials and every pitcher should offer up alms to him before each game in which he plays as he’s good at keeping runs from scoring. 

What’s interesting is that Sandy Alderson has never put much value into defense, so it came as something of a surprise to hear that Lagares being given an everyday gig was somewhat surprising.  Besides his seeming inability to stay off the DL, he’s never exactly set the world afire with his bat.  In 252 ABs (a little less than half a season’s worth of effort) Lagares was good for just 3 HRs, 15 RBIs and a .250 AVG while adding 7 SBs.  Those numbers are not going to make anyone feel warm and fuzzy when he steps to the plate.  For his career over a 162 game span he would average .257/6/43/11 – again, not eyebrow raising numbers.

However, despite the modest offensive contribution, he was still worth 1.8 WAR based almost exclusively on the highlight reel quality of his defense.  With each WAR worth about $8 million then his $4.5 million salary was indeed a bargain.  Of course, that price goes up to a still worthy $6.5 million this year but next year at $9 million he’s a bit of a luxury for a defensive specialist.  If you think about it, a Buddy Harrelson or Doug Flynn never got the big bucks primarily as defensive players. Therein lies the Alderson/Wilpon appeal of the defense-first approach.  Glove men are not as expensive as hitters.

It appears there is a method to the madness here if you sift through the many reports.  First of all, the defense helps make the pitching better (and based upon what was seen last year they need all the help they can get).  Second, if regular play gives him the opportunity to demonstrate what he can do, he becomes a trade chip later in the year or in the off-season before you hit that $9 million payday. 

Second, the conversation about a corner outfielder who can also play 1^st base also makes sense.  Until Michael Conforto is ready, an outfield of Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo doesn’t exactly scream Murderer’s Row.  Consequently, for the sake of argument, a Logan Morrison or Adam Lind would enable the Mets both to provide some stop-gap offense until Conforto returns and helps them hedge their bets against a regression by Dom Smith. 

On the latter, I have to laugh at the transparency of the reports that the Mets are considering faming out Smith and taking potshots about his conditioning.  That’s obviously meant to send a message to Smith to come to camp in better shape and to win the job with a solid spring.  They know as well as everyone else does that his history is that he takes time to adjust to each new level of pitching as he advanced through the system.  He has not hit under .300 since he was 19 years old so it’s way too soon to write him off after a lackluster debut. 

Back in 1973 there was a heralded rookie who put together a rather embarrassing debut campaign of 367 ABs in which he struck out 136 times, hit just .196 but did add 18 HRs and 52 RBIs.  That man went on to the Hall of Fame – Michael Jack Schmidt.  Like Smith, he was 22 years old at the time.  He’ll be fine, but I can understand the rationale for wanting an emergency 1^st base backup. 

By the way, that desire for someone who could man 1^st if Smith falters suggests to me that Wilmer Flores’ Mets career may have come to an end.  It seems rather obvious to everyone that he mashes left handed pitching and has put up nice run production numbers who would not embarrass the team the way, for example, James Loney did.  His low price and his defensive liabilities make him a future DH.  He could be dealt for a position of need such as a slick fielding infielder. 

While people are clamoring for Dee Gordon (and I’ve laid out the case for Brian Dozier) I’m wondering if instead a deal for the one year remaining of Ian Kinsler’s contract makes more sense for the Mets?  He is regarded as one of the best gloves in the game and despite a subpar .236 AVG this past year he still managed to hit 22 HRs.  He might be the defensive minded player that would bridge the gap until Luis Guillorme is ready and could probably be had for relatively little depending on how much of his $11 million salary you want to pay. 

I only bring up Kinsler’s name because the health-plagued Neil Walker’s name came up and despite hoping his injury history would depress the foolish QO price tag of $17.4 million he earned last year.  Kinsler, by contrast, has been a relative ironman in his career, having logged over 600 ABs in 6 of the past 8 years.  Walker at age 32 this coming year will be looking for a multi-year deal.  Kinsler will play at age 36 and there’s no obligation beyond 2018.    Last year Kinsler was worth 2.1 WAR to Walker’s 1.5.  They average approximately the same stats – 20 HRs, 80 RBIs and .272 AVG.  Yes, Kinsler may dip as age may catch up to him, but his superior fielding and shorter term obligation may make him the shrewder play to help shore up the infield defense.

Jason Kipnis' name has also surfaced as a trade target due to the Cleveland connection and the fact that the Indians have younger players ready to step into the position.  Unfortunately Kipnis produces less offense than either Kinsler or Walker and comes at a higher price.  He has a contract that runs through 2018, 2019 and has a buyout option for 2020.  If you exercised the buyout he'd cost over $15 million per year for two years and potentially block Guillorme and his minimum wage Gold Glove talent.  

So is a team built around pitching and defense the future of the franchise with offense peppered in from Cespedes, Conforto, Rosario, Cabrera and Smith?  Do you have the pieces to pull off a Kinsler trade?  If so, your remaining needs are a top notch reliever, an innings eater starter and an outfielder.  That seems eminently doable in free agency given the limited funds available for payroll.  Would one more bat in RF and these other additions be enough to return to contention?