Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2010
As we all intuitively know, there is a moderately strong correlation between the chances of big league success that a drafted player will have in terms of a major league career, and what round he is drafted in. The higher the round, generally the better the chances.
I have in recent months broached an approach that which I think is obvious...try to draft power bats and then power pitchers. Of course, power bats are only attractive if the hitters' contact rates are not unacceptable.
Who were the DUDS in rounds 1 through 10 in 2010? Why did they fail?
2nd round catcher BLAKE FORSYTHE - the man had some power but fanned way too much. .226/.313/.378, with 456 Ks in 1.374 career ABs. In fairness, a reasonably decent pick, a good power guy who did not hit enough to work out. Can't win 'em all.
4th round OF CORY VAUGHN - the Mets hoped for lightning in a family bottle here in drafting the son of high-powered former major leaguer Greg Vaughn and the nephew of "lethal-before-he-became-a-Met" Mo Vaughn. (My tablet changed the spelling from Mo to No, so it is smart after all).
That family thing, which seems to work so well for so many teams (ask Pittsburgh about Barry Bonds, Seattle about Griffey Jr), only has worked in the Mets drafting Todd Hundley (and Preston Wilson, but he never suited up for the Mets).
Cory had a nice first season for the Brooklyn Cyclones, but hit just .210 in both of his last 2 seasons in AA and AAA. He turned out to be a dud but was not that bad, so he was not a terrible pick. Decent power, fine speed, struck out a lot but not in the extreme...just not good enough.
5th round OF MATT DEN DEKKER: the Mets gambled that this fine defensive and quick-footed CF could fix his strikeout problem. He did make the majors and in 350 at bats, hit .234, but in recent years in AAA, has regressed. AAAA.
His 93 games in Vegas in 2014 were his pinnacle, where it all seemed to be coming together for Matt, when he hit .334/.407/.540, and my hopes for him soared - but it was more of a flash in the pan than anything else. Essentially, he has been a borderline MLB 5th OF, not terrible for a #5 round pick, but still mostly a Dud pick. Why?
Borderline 5th OFs are abundantly available; quality MLB OFs are a scarcer commodity.
6th round RHSP GREG PEAVEY - an all-too typical Mets pitching pick...mediocre...his minor league final numbers were 45-39, 4.60 ERA, 60 homers allowed, and only 466 Ks in 667 IP. Almost as good as a Logan Verrett, who was not good. Hint to the Mets: draft power arms, not low velocity Peaveys type, who usually stall out in the high minors.
8th round KENNETH MCDOWELL - he won three quarters of his decisions and had a career ERA of 2.25. So what is the problem? He only threw 20 minor league innings, fanned just 11, going 3-1 in his career and only making it as far as Kingsport. The Mets would have been better off drafting Malcolm McDowell or Roddy McDowell (above).
Of course, there were DUDES (pictured above) and not just DUDS in the 2010 top 10 Mets' draft picks.
In the 9th and 10th rounds, they drafted a former SS you may have heard of named Jake deGrom, a fine fireballer who hits better than many of the bats they've drafted over the years, and a now-24 year old Akeel Morris, who appears like he may be a decent pen arm for the Braves.
They also drafted a Dark Knight in the first round named Matt Harvey, and Jeff Walters in the 7th round, who looked like a promising reliever and good 7th round selection until Tommy John paid him a visit, after which he was never the same.
In 2013, Walters was stellar at 4-3, 2.09 with 38 of 42 saves in AA - then POOF went his career, as happens to pitchers so frequently, due to a TJS injury.
A terrible draft below round # 10; only useful pieces were Eric Goeddel (24th round) and Josh Edgin (30th round).
A terrible draft below round # 10; only useful pieces were Eric Goeddel (24th round) and Josh Edgin (30th round).
Overall, 2010's top 10 picks had its share of DUDS, sure, but they mostly got it right...going with power pitching and power hitting and/or speedy position players. Avoid the Peavey and McDowell softy pitcher types and it might have been a great draft in those rounds.
14 comments:
I really liked the Forsythe pik. Thought he was going 2 be a good one.
Nice guy too.
Being related to fat Mo should have given Vaughn something (other than diabetes). He surprised me (and not in a good way).
I was quite excited with Cory after Brooklyn debut. He pretty much sputtered thereafter.
Mack, Forsythe's total game before he retired....remind me again why Nido is better?? Nido does not hit great, but does hit better but with less power. Seems Forsythe gave up early.
Given that 2010 was one of the very few times I was really ticked (Harvey over Sale), two successes (Harvey, deGrom), two near misses (Morris, den Dekker) and two good guesses (Vaughn, Fosythe) is not a DUD draft.
It does demonstrate what baseball is-- game of inches (more properly millimeters) and where 4/10 on a regular basis is an aberration.
Tom
Blake did quit early without explanaion. He also had a series of injuries early on.
Hobie, if you read my concluding notes, you will see you and I largely agree on 2010's draft.
Hobie, also, to my point, look who the two "successes" were...power pitchers. Power arms, power bats are the way to draft. Get your middle infield slick fielding types from San Pedro de Macoris in the international signings side of things.
Tom-
Had a friend who was running for the DR legislature (1990's). Told me he lost to a shortstop.
HOBIE, ha ha! Hillary lost to a TV show host, too.
Two picks saved a draft...
Harvey and Degrom (2 out of 40 picks) makes a successful draft... It really makes baseball such a crap shoot... We chose a guy who had really good mechanics, hard thrower in harvey he blows up his arm but a guy like Sale who was thought to be destined to have arm trouble was the better choice and has the better career...
then we draft a SS and he becomes our best pitcher...
Does any of this make sense...
Eddie, it all makes perfect sense...after the fact.
Don't worry, Harvey will be back...THEN start worrying.
If you get TWO successful players out of every draft... and ONE successful International signing each year... that's THREE a year.... times this by 5 years... and that's 15 of your 25 man
My 10 year draft recap, in a few weeks, will show whether we are generating enough legit players thru the draft over an extended period - but 2010 got us two top tier power arms.
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