10/31/19

John From Albany – Looking back at the pre-season predictions



Congratulations to the Washington Nationals and their first World Series victory in franchise history.  

Once the World Series is over, I like to go back to the MLB season previews that come out in March and see how all the different predictions panned out.

For the purpose of this article, I looked at the NY Post and Sports Illustrated. 

So Here they are:

Ken Davidoff
Kevin Kernan
George A. King III
NL East
Nationals
Nationals
Nationals
NL Central
Reds
Cardinals
Brewers
NL West
Dodgers
Dodgers
Dodgers
NL Wild Card 1
Phillies
Cubs
Braves
NL Wild Card 2
Rockies
Brewers
Cardinals
Mets Prediction
3rd
2nd
4th
NL Winner
Nationals
Cardinals
Brewers
AL East
Yankees
Red Sox
Red Sox
AL Central
Twins
Indians
Indians
AL West
Astros
Astros
Astros
AL Wild Card 1
Red Sox
Yankees
Yankees
AL Wild Card 2
Indians
Rays
Angels
AL Winner
Yankees
Astros
Astros
WS Winner
Yankees
Cardinals
Brewers

Dan Martin
Mike Puma
Joel Sherman
NL East
Phillies
Phillies
Nationals
NL Central
Brewers
Brewers
Brewers
NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Dodgers
NL Wild Card 1
Nationals
Nationals
Cubs
NL Wild Card 2
Cubs
Dodgers
Rockies
Mets Prediction
3rd
3rd
3rd
NL Winner
Brewers
Padres
Dodgers
AL East
Yankees
Yankees
Yankees
AL Central
Indians
Indians
Twins
AL West
Astros
Astros
Astros
AL Wild Card 1
Red Sox
Red Sox
Red Sox
AL Wild Card 2
Twins
A's
Indians
AL Winner
Astros
Yankees
Yankees
WS Winner
Dodgers
Padres
Yankees



Mike Vaccaro
Sports Illustrated
NL East
Nationals
Nationals
NL Central
Reds
Cubs
NL West
Dodgers
Dodgers
NL Wild Card 1
Cardinals
Phillies
NL Wild Card 2
Brewers
Mets
Mets Prediction
3rd
NL Winner
Dodgers
Nationals
AL East
Yankees
Yankees
AL Central
Twins
Indians
AL West
Astros
Astros
AL Wild Card 1
Red Sox
Red Sox
AL Wild Card 2
Indians
Rays/A's (tie)
AL Winner
Astros
Astros
WS Winner
Astros
Astros

Two, Mike Vaccaro and Sports Illustrated, had the Astros winning it all.  No one had the Nationals winning it all but Sports Illustrated had them in the World Series Vs. the Astros.  Pretty good.

Everyone listed here picked the Astros to win the AL West.  That makes sense after they had two straight years with over 100 wins coming into this year. 

Three had the Twins winning the AL Central.  I did not see that coming after they won just 78 games in 2018.

Probably the most daring prediction goes out to Mike Puma.  He had the Padres over the Yankees in the World Series.  Pares finished last in the NL West with a 70-92 record despite their big off season acquisition of Manny Machado.

One amazing thing is that after they won the NL East in 2018, not one of the writers above picked the Braves to repeat as NL East Champs and only one, George A. King III, picked them to even make the playoffs.  Most had them finishing fourth behind the Mets!  (Wish that was true.)

Only Sports Illustrated had the Mets making the playoffs as a wild card team.  

Not listed here, Bill Madden of the NY Daily News said that the NL East would be between the Mets and the Nationals with the bullpen being the difference.  Boy was he right.  However, Bill gave the nod to the Mets as they picked up Diaz and Familia. Funny how things work out.  

You can probably point to the Nationals building up their bullpen at the trade deadline as a another key reason why they won.  It sure held up in the post season.


Kevin Davidoff in the NY Post mentioned the five things that separated the Nationals from the Mets starting with the bullpen.  But he also highlighted the defensive differences.  He mentioned while the Nationals ranked 17th with a 0.9 "runs above average which means they played just a tad above replacement level collectively...17th in baseball...The Mets were ranked far worse, 26th with a -26.8 defensive runs below average."  Ouch.

At least the Mets will get a new Manager soon.  They will most likely interview Nationals coach Tim Bogar again now that the World Series is over.  

They may end up being able to hire Brodie's pal AJ Hinch if the Astros decide to make a change.  

10 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Excellent retrospective. The better than expected performances by Alonso, McNeil, and Davis were undercut by the sub par years of Cano, Familia and Diaz. So we missed the playoffs, as most predicted.

Winning in 2020 would be far easier with Gerrit Cole - but I read today he grew up a big Yankee fan.

Mack Ade said...

Very interesting excel sheet.

Staying quiet today... in mourning over last night's game.

Tom Brennan said...

Yep, Mack, it is not only Edwin Diaz that the mighty Nats beat up in relief.

Astros' relievers allowed 17 runs in 22.1 innings in the series. Good in 4 games, ripped in the other 3.

John From Albany said...

Cole was drafted out of HS by the Yankees and did not sign. Don't put him in the Bronx just yet. Whoever pays the most will get him.

Tom Brennan said...

I mostly agree, John - whoever pays the most AND has a big chance of winning a World Series. Is that really the Mets? It could be, if the Wilpons step it up.

Anonymous said...

Interesting.

Houston blew it. How great is the much heralded AJ Hinch manager really, since he had all the horses he needed to win it right there with him? Astros got outplayed and outsmarted. Period. They earned the loss. No cigar!

NFL - The usual five or six good teams competing for the Championship, everyone else gets goats milk cookies. Look at the Patriots points scored against, there's the story. The closest team to them has a points against of twice as large. If Brady stays healthy, they win it. Best NFC teams I think are New Orleans and SF. One plays the Patriots. Green Bay fans get ready now for the annual letdown.

NYK - The Knicks have three big men now (Portis, Morris, and Randle) which is very good. But they have NO big man defender to shutdown the lane and rebound like they need one to do. Mitchell and Portis are slight in build. Portis had a nice game recently and scored some points in their first win. Maybe pick one between Morris or Randle for the PF position. Then trade the other in a package for a monster center from another team, if one is out there. Otherwise look internationally if they have to. Without this key monster center piece, I don't see anything significant for them if they make the playoffs. Team will gel second half, same as the Mets did this season. But without this monster center, it will all be for naught. Knick fans are beyond restless with this team. They want a true competitor on the floor. The Knicks are comparable right now to the Mets with their recent bullpen.

NYM - Why all this trash talk regarding JD Davis not being a true starter at least in LF? Look again at his 2019 stats after Dominic went down injured. .306 BA, 22 HR's, .369 OBP. And there are critics who don't want him to start in LF? Are you kidding me? It was his first go-round here as a Met. Get him signed Bubba!

Michael Conforto is a FA now. Could the Mets upgrade him in RF? Maybe.

Anonymous said...

I am sorry.

But I do not see Tomas Nido ever hitting for an average. The Mets have given him ample playing time to see an improvement. He is pretty much mucho-lost at the plate. Unbalanced, bad footwork, bad timing, no weight transfer of significance. Who taught him how to hit, Stevie Wonder?

Yes, he is a superb catcher defensively. But this isn't the 1960's anymore with Jerry Grote hitting below average. A catcher has to be able to hit and produce at the plate. I'd much rather see Ali Sanchez as Wilson Ramos' backup in 2020. Ali has shown signs of being a hitter for average, and already is a decent defensive catcher as well.

I'd probably use Patrick Mazeika in a trade package perhaps, so he can get a shot at some MLB playing time too. He's getting to that age now.

Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia are important pieces to the Mets bullpen, if the NYM want to contend for a Championship in 2019. They have to be made swiss watch again relieving. I think they both can be.

Off the FA list, just JD Davis and Brad Brach really. I mentioned JD Davis above. He was excellent second half this season. Brad Brach has a unique delivery, one almost similar to the way Asian pitchers throw. He winds it up pre-delivery, and it works.

If I had a choice between Derrick Cole or Jose Uriquidy in the seventh game, I might just take Jose. He was a difference maker for sure!

Anonymous said...

The Big Question

If the Houston Astros had used Jose Uriquidy earlier on after Greinke had come out last night, and then Derreck Cole after Jose, would the outcome (a Houston loss) still have been the same?

This is what I was expecting Hinch to do. But he did not.

It's a good and fair question. One which will never in time be answered I am afraid.

You have now entered..."Baseball's Twighlight Zone" a place of reason and sanity, a place of non-juiced up baseballs and no box drawn on your television at homeplate.

Anonymous said...

Someone online mentioned Yoenis Cespedes coming back and playing left field. Does anyone think this a possible of any credibilty. An outfield of LF Cespedes CF Nimmo RF JD Davis.

I have watched the 2015 replayed games and Yo' was major back then. But I don't really know if he could ever come back close to 100% again and stay on the field. I tend to think not.

Anonymous said...

Get 3B Bobby Dalbec Mr. Van Halen! See how Yo' is doing now with the feets and all. And a left-handed superb later-inning reliever. Ding-ding, a winner.