Mike Freire - ALDS Preview and Prediction

Good Morning, Mets' fans.

In a previous article, I posted the 2019 MLB playoff field and I also explained how I prefer to break the different matchups down (refer to the same if you have any questions about what the factors listed below mean).  I will attempt to do so as the playoffs move along, while also predicting who I think will ultimately win each series the rest of the way.

So, let's take a look at the first half of the ALDS matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Houston Astros, scheduled to start in the Lone Star State.

Friday, October 4th @ 1405 HRS

Tampa Bay Rays (97-66) versus Houston Astros (107-55)

 Tyler Glasnow                             Justin Verlander

1. LAST 30 - Tampa Bay (21-9), Houston (22-8)

2. RUN DIFF - Tampa Bay (+2), Houston (-3)

3. FUNDAMENTALS (all);

 a. DEFENSE - Tampa Bay (.985%, 87 E), Houston (.988%, 71 E)

 b. BASERUNNING - Tampa Bay (92 SB/72 SBA), Houston (65 SB/75 SBA)

 c. BULLPEN - Tampa Bay (46/73 SV = 63%), Houston (45/65 SV = 69%)

4. ROAD % - Tampa Bay (49-31), Houston (47-34)

5.  HEAD 2 HEAD - Tampa Bay surprisingly won four of the seven games between the two clubs this year.  One of the few teams that Houston did not steamroll during the regular season.  However, the Rays won three of four WAY back in late March, during the first series of the year.  The second match up was in Houston at the end of August and the Astros won two of the three games (which is more indicative of the current matchup).

ANALYSIS/PICK - OK, I would like to write that the Rays are just the type of scrappy team that could the Astros fits in a short series and that they had a legitimate change to spring a huge upset.  While technically true, the Astros are simply a much better team in all facets of the game (except speed on the base paths, perhaps).  Houston won 107 games in the regular season and actually UNDERACHIEVED by three games what they should have done, if you look at run differential (a 110 win team).

The Rays have a nice pitching staff, but they had to "burn" Charlie Morton in order to get past the Athletics in the Wild Card Round, so they are basically fighting with one hand tied behind their back.  Yes, they still have a recently rehabilitated Tyler Glasnow, along with a whole host of solid relievers to get them through the first two games, but is that really a match for what the Astros can roll out?  Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Grienke form the top of the rotation and they have Wade Miley in reserve, just in case!

Both teams are well above average defensively (Astros are #1 in all of MLB) and both bullpens are very solid so this game will likely be decided by the two teams lineups.  Again, the Rays have some nice bats but the Astros are fielding an AL All Star team (seriously, look at their lineup).  Oh and just for fun, they added a dynamic rookie (Yordan Alvarez) to the mix part way through the year, so they are even more dangerous.

I think the Rays represent themselves well in this series, but the Astros will simply grind out the three wins necessary to move onto the ALCS in a sweep.