Mike Freire - AL Wild Card Preview and Prediction

Good Morning, Mets' fans.

In a previous article, I posted the 2019 MLB playoff field and I also explained how I prefer to break the different matchups down (refer to the same if you have any questions about what the factors listed below mean).  I will attempt to do so as the playoffs move along, while also predicting who I think will ultimately win each game (Wild Card Round) or series the rest of the way.

So, let's get started with the American League match up in "the 94606" (aka Oakland, CA).


Wednesday, October 2nd (AL Wild Card - one game)

Tampa Bay (96-66) @ Oakland (97-65)
Charlie Morton            To Be Determined?

1. LAST 30 - Tampa Bay (19-11), Oakland (22-8)

2. RUN DIFF - Tampa Bay (+2), Oakland (-1)

3. FUNDAMENTALS (all);

 a. DEFENSE - Tampa Bay (.985% with 87 E), Oakland (.985% with 76 E)

 b. BASERUNNING - Tampa Bay (72 SB, 92 SB taken), Oakland (82 SB, 47 SB taken)

 c. BULLPEN - Tampa Bay (46/73 SVS = 63%), Oakland (44/75 SVS = 59%)

4. ROAD % - Tampa Bay (48-33), Oakland - N/A (Home 52-29, however)

5.  HEAD 2 HEAD - Oakland won 4 out of the 7 meetings in the regular season, but the teams have
                                   not seen each other since the end of June!  Oakland won 2 of the 3 games in
                                   Oakland if the provides any reference (but that was three months prior, so who
                                   knows).


ANALYSIS/PICK - Much like the Wild Card showdown in the National League, these two teams appear to be evenly matched (separated by one game in the standings and one game in their head to head series this year).  If you take a look at the "run differentials", they are separated by three games with the Rays overachieving a bit along the way and the A's finishing a game worse then they "should have" but the differences are not as glaring as other teams in the playoffs.

The Rays also have identical road and home records on the year (48-33), so they are not afraid to go into another team's stadium and play well.  Oakland counters this by have a strong home record (52-29), which is fortunate for the hosts.

What is interesting is that the A's play more of an "American League" style of game, with a glaring lack of team speed (47 SB).  The Rays remind me more of a "National League" team with almost twice as many stolen bases.  Could this ability to manufacture a run late in a ball game make a difference in a close contest?

Furthermore, while the Rays bullpen was slightly above league average (62% save conversion), the A's bullpen had a few more "issues".  Could this cause problems late in a close ball game?  Additionally, the Rays are used to using an odd schedule for their pitchers, to include short outings called "openers" for their starter(s).  In this case, scheduled starter Charlie Morton is more of a traditional pitcher, so I expect him to pitch deeper into this game.  The advantage comes in with a whole array of relief pitchers that will be available, just in case.  Oakland has been a bit tardy naming their starter, but it looks like Mike Fiers or Brett Anderson would be the logical choice.  Neither one of them have pitched as well as Charlie Morton has, so this could be advantage Rays.

This is a tough one to predict since both squads have been playing well down the stretch and they are evenly matched.  If this game were in Tampa, I would lean much more heavily towards the Rays since they don't mind where they play and the A's are not as good of a road team.  But, this game is in Oakland so all bets are off.  I am going to go out on a limb and take the Rays in a close ballgame that is decided by "small ball" late in the contest.  The reward?  A date with the best team in baseball (Houston) in one half of the ALDS.