Tom Brennan - THE IMPACT OF SUBS AND SCRUBS ON METS' SUCCESS

Subs - YUMMY!!

In case ya didn't notice:

The Mets just missed the playoffs in 2019.

I am not telling you anything you don't already know.

In 2018, they were further back.

Both seasons led me to a conclusion:

SCRUBS ON HEALTH CARE PROS READY TO DO TRIAGE ON THE METS

I blame the Mets owner/leader team... 

for allowing subs and scrubs to help ruin the seasons.

Every team in any given season will have guys do surprisingly well (Alonso) and surprisingly poorly (Diaz).

For instance, on the Mets World Series win team in 1969, Duffy Dyer, Ed Charles, and some Edwin-Diaz-like bum named Amos Otis (maybe you heard of him) hit .196 in 437 combined at bats.

And on the 108 win Mets World Series win team in 1986, George Foster hit just .227 in 233 at bats.

Anticipating injuries, a certain number of key players' sub-par seasons, etc. and building a strong foundation is paramount to counteract such occurrences.

The Yankees did that astoundingly well in 2019 - lots of injuries, and the depth kept them dominant almost the entire year.  Why, in 2018, Judge, Stanton and Andujar had 1,603 at bats with 103 doubles and 92 HRs.  In 2019, those same 3 had just 1,166 fewer at bats - 437 at bats - with just 21 doubles and 30 HRs.  And thrived.  I'd say their substitutes filled in for those 3 key players PRETTY DARNED WELL

Two things about the Mets' subs and scrubs (guys I would not have expected a lot out of) - they:

1) got into games far too much

and 

2) did very poorly when they got into games.

Not everyone who did poorly as a Met is what I'd consider a "sub and scrub" - for instance, I thought Travis d'Arnaud would have a bounce back year once healthy.  So the fact that he was 2 for 23 as a Met before dazzling with the Rays is not factored into my subs and scrubs.  I did not see TDA as a scrub.  I saw him as a legit # 2 catcher and #1 if Ramos had gotten hurt - and he proved to be terrific with the Rays.

Offensive subs and scrubs - guys when going into the season who I thought would under-perform, or guys added during the year who would do the same, included:

8 such subby/scrubby guys: 

Rene Rivera (age), Juan Lagares (tendency to under-hit, and frequently get hurt), Carlos Gomez (age), Rajai Davis (age), Adeiny Hecchavaria (career light hitter), Tomas Nido (very weak OBP), Keon Broxton (KKKKKK), Aaron Altherr (has not hit in recent years).  

I left Luis Guillorme out of this list, because going into the season, I thought he would find a way to be serviceable, and not be a scrub sub, and it turned out he did just that in limited use.

Combined, the above 8 guys had 744 at bats, hitting .197.  Hardly pitcher-worthy-hitting.

The pitchers in 311 at bats were not far behind at .167.  The rest of the Mets' hitters?  They hit a commendable .273.

Those 744 subs and scrubs at bats were 14% of all non-pitcher at bats for the Mets. And, at .197, hit 76 points lower than the regulars.

Pitcher subs and scrubs - guys who, if you asked me to be truly objective, I would have guessed prior to the season they'd under-perform (or I would have reached the same conclusion if added during the season):

There were 14 such pitchers in 2019: Brach (who actually did well); Rhame; Sewald; Peterson; Font; Zamora; Mazza; Pounders; Flexen; Santiago; Bashlor; Lockett; Gagnon; and Oswalt.

Those 14 threw 194 innings and surrendered 139 earned runs….Combined ERA?  6.59.

Those 194 innings are 13.3% of all Mets innings.  Almost one of every 7 Mets innings.  

The regular non-scrub pitchers (including substandard performers like Diaz, Familia, and Avilan) had a far better combined ERA of 3.89.

In 2018, perhaps due to being further out of the race almost all of 2018, those subs and scrub #s were higher in at bats and innings.  I wrote about this last year, too.

As I recall, off the top of my head (see links to those articles at the end of this article),  .198 for 20% of the non-pitcher at bats (compared to 14% this year), and 15 subs and scrubs pitchers allowing 7 total runs per 9 innings (since the 6.59 ERA for 2019 above is "earned" runs, results in Scrub Land in 2018 and 2019 were similarly poor.)

My guess is ownership would agree that if they saw the list of these 8 hitters and 14 pitchers pre-season, they would have very little optimism of solid performance from them.

Owners have to realize the magnitude of "subs and scrubs" under-performance and, if they really want the Mets to win, set real acceptable targets for usage of these guys - such as:

No more than 6% of at bats taken by subs and scrubs hitters (rather than this years 14%).

No more than 100 innings thrown by subs and scrubs pitchers (rather than this year's 194).

Because:

If utilization rates of subs and scrubs stay at 2019 levels, the Mets will miss the playoffs again in 2020.  

At least, that is how I see it.

After all, the Mets got within 3 games of a wild card DESPITE the magnitude of subs and scrubs poor performance outlined above.

My intent is not to name the names I named.  

My intent here is to demonstrate linkage between the excessive tolerance of ownership to such a large amount of non-performance and the missing of playoffs.  

I highlight this in hopes something more will be done by the leadership team to prevent the same from occurring in 2020.

My intent also is to point out this excessive use of subs and scrubs flaw (as I see it) so that our favorites (All Stars Jake, Pete, Jeff, etc.) can get to where they deserve to more frequently be - the playoffs.

P.S.

Here are my article links from last fall on this same subject, should you care to peruse them and give yourself a detailed look at the failing fringes of the Mets 25 man roster over a 2 year period:


http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2019/01/tom-brennan-subs-and-scrubs-mets.html

http://macksmets.blogspot.com/search/?q=bullpen+subs+and+scrubs

http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2019/01/tom-brennan-subs-and-scrubs-mets_9.html