Subs - YUMMY!!
In case ya didn't notice:
The Mets just missed the playoffs in 2019.
I am not telling you anything you don't already know.
In 2018, they were further back.
Both seasons led me to a conclusion:
SCRUBS ON HEALTH CARE PROS READY TO DO TRIAGE ON THE METS
I blame the Mets owner/leader team...
for allowing subs and scrubs to help ruin the seasons.
Every team in any given season will have guys do surprisingly well (Alonso) and surprisingly poorly (Diaz).
For instance, on the Mets World Series win team in 1969, Duffy Dyer, Ed Charles, and some Edwin-Diaz-like bum named Amos Otis (maybe you heard of him) hit .196 in 437 combined at bats.
And on the 108 win Mets World Series win team in 1986, George Foster hit just .227 in 233 at bats.
For instance, on the Mets World Series win team in 1969, Duffy Dyer, Ed Charles, and some Edwin-Diaz-like bum named Amos Otis (maybe you heard of him) hit .196 in 437 combined at bats.
And on the 108 win Mets World Series win team in 1986, George Foster hit just .227 in 233 at bats.
Anticipating injuries, a certain number of key players' sub-par seasons, etc. and building a strong foundation is paramount to counteract such occurrences.
The Yankees did that astoundingly well in 2019 - lots of injuries, and the depth kept them dominant almost the entire year. Why, in 2018, Judge, Stanton and Andujar had 1,603 at bats with 103 doubles and 92 HRs. In 2019, those same 3 had just 1,166 fewer at bats - 437 at bats - with just 21 doubles and 30 HRs. And thrived. I'd say their substitutes filled in for those 3 key players PRETTY DARNED WELL
Two things about the Mets' subs and scrubs (guys I would not have expected a lot out of) - they:
1) got into games far too much
and
2) did very poorly when they got into games.
Not everyone who did poorly as a Met is what I'd consider a "sub and scrub" - for instance, I thought Travis d'Arnaud would have a bounce back year once healthy. So the fact that he was 2 for 23 as a Met before dazzling with the Rays is not factored into my subs and scrubs. I did not see TDA as a scrub. I saw him as a legit # 2 catcher and #1 if Ramos had gotten hurt - and he proved to be terrific with the Rays.
Offensive subs and scrubs - guys when going into the season who I thought would under-perform, or guys added during the year who would do the same, included:
8 such subby/scrubby guys:
Rene Rivera (age), Juan Lagares (tendency to under-hit, and frequently get hurt), Carlos Gomez (age), Rajai Davis (age), Adeiny Hecchavaria (career light hitter), Tomas Nido (very weak OBP), Keon Broxton (KKKKKK), Aaron Altherr (has not hit in recent years).
I left Luis Guillorme out of this list, because going into the season, I thought he would find a way to be serviceable, and not be a scrub sub, and it turned out he did just that in limited use.
Rene Rivera (age), Juan Lagares (tendency to under-hit, and frequently get hurt), Carlos Gomez (age), Rajai Davis (age), Adeiny Hecchavaria (career light hitter), Tomas Nido (very weak OBP), Keon Broxton (KKKKKK), Aaron Altherr (has not hit in recent years).
I left Luis Guillorme out of this list, because going into the season, I thought he would find a way to be serviceable, and not be a scrub sub, and it turned out he did just that in limited use.
Combined, the above 8 guys had 744 at bats, hitting .197. Hardly pitcher-worthy-hitting.
The pitchers in 311 at bats were not far behind at .167. The rest of the Mets' hitters? They hit a commendable .273.
The pitchers in 311 at bats were not far behind at .167. The rest of the Mets' hitters? They hit a commendable .273.
Those 744 subs and scrubs at bats were 14% of all non-pitcher at bats for the Mets. And, at .197, hit 76 points lower than the regulars.
Pitcher subs and scrubs - guys who, if you asked me to be truly objective, I would have guessed prior to the season they'd under-perform (or I would have reached the same conclusion if added during the season):
There were 14 such pitchers in 2019: Brach (who actually did well); Rhame; Sewald; Peterson; Font; Zamora; Mazza; Pounders; Flexen; Santiago; Bashlor; Lockett; Gagnon; and Oswalt.
Those 14 threw 194 innings and surrendered 139 earned runs….Combined ERA? 6.59.
Those 194 innings are 13.3% of all Mets innings. Almost one of every 7 Mets innings.
The regular non-scrub pitchers (including substandard performers like Diaz, Familia, and Avilan) had a far better combined ERA of 3.89.
The regular non-scrub pitchers (including substandard performers like Diaz, Familia, and Avilan) had a far better combined ERA of 3.89.
In 2018, perhaps due to being further out of the race almost all of 2018, those subs and scrub #s were higher in at bats and innings. I wrote about this last year, too.
As I recall, off the top of my head (see links to those articles at the end of this article), .198 for 20% of the non-pitcher at bats (compared to 14% this year), and 15 subs and scrubs pitchers allowing 7 total runs per 9 innings (since the 6.59 ERA for 2019 above is "earned" runs, results in Scrub Land in 2018 and 2019 were similarly poor.)
As I recall, off the top of my head (see links to those articles at the end of this article), .198 for 20% of the non-pitcher at bats (compared to 14% this year), and 15 subs and scrubs pitchers allowing 7 total runs per 9 innings (since the 6.59 ERA for 2019 above is "earned" runs, results in Scrub Land in 2018 and 2019 were similarly poor.)
My guess is ownership would agree that if they saw the list of these 8 hitters and 14 pitchers pre-season, they would have very little optimism of solid performance from them.
Owners have to realize the magnitude of "subs and scrubs" under-performance and, if they really want the Mets to win, set real acceptable targets for usage of these guys - such as:
No more than 6% of at bats taken by subs and scrubs hitters (rather than this years 14%).
No more than 100 innings thrown by subs and scrubs pitchers (rather than this year's 194).
Because:
If utilization rates of subs and scrubs stay at 2019 levels, the Mets will miss the playoffs again in 2020.
At least, that is how I see it.
After all, the Mets got within 3 games of a wild card DESPITE the magnitude of subs and scrubs poor performance outlined above.
My intent is not to name the names I named.
My intent here is to demonstrate linkage between the excessive tolerance of ownership to such a large amount of non-performance and the missing of playoffs.
I highlight this in hopes something more will be done by the leadership team to prevent the same from occurring in 2020.
My intent here is to demonstrate linkage between the excessive tolerance of ownership to such a large amount of non-performance and the missing of playoffs.
I highlight this in hopes something more will be done by the leadership team to prevent the same from occurring in 2020.
My intent also is to point out this excessive use of subs and scrubs flaw (as I see it) so that our favorites (All Stars Jake, Pete, Jeff, etc.) can get to where they deserve to more frequently be - the playoffs.
P.S.
Here are my article links from last fall on this same subject, should you care to peruse them and give yourself a detailed look at the failing fringes of the Mets 25 man roster over a 2 year period:
http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2019/01/tom-brennan-subs-and-scrubs-mets.html
http://macksmets.blogspot.com/search/?q=bullpen+subs+and+scrubs
http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2019/01/tom-brennan-subs-and-scrubs-mets_9.html
P.S.
Here are my article links from last fall on this same subject, should you care to peruse them and give yourself a detailed look at the failing fringes of the Mets 25 man roster over a 2 year period:
http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2019/01/tom-brennan-subs-and-scrubs-mets.html
http://macksmets.blogspot.com/search/?q=bullpen+subs+and+scrubs
http://macksmets.blogspot.com/2019/01/tom-brennan-subs-and-scrubs-mets_9.html
11 comments:
Tom your the bomb! Well put and knowing there are no excuses this year about not making the playoffs and the new FO has a year under their belts much better performance from them is critical starting of course with the new manager. It's also those under the radar moves that really have helped many teams with likes of Soto, Acuna, Albies, Torres, Adames, Altuve, Jimenez and Alvarez to name just a few so with credit this year to the FO for J.D.Davis we could sure use a few more additions like that.
Gary, thanks - if you see subs and scrubs who aren't getting it done early in 2020, it may be time to make early plans to do non-Mets things in October again.
Today is the 50th anniversary of the Mets WS win in 1969 - just one WS win since in 50 years. Not nearly enough.
To be fair, Broxton looked like a good acquisition. He wasn't. JD Davis looked like a meh acquisition. We know how that worked out. You win some, you lose some. The problem is they stick too long with what's not working instead of cutting their losses and moving on to other possibilities.
Reese, I disagree on Broxton - he had an awful 2018 in the majors/minors. His 2019 was therefore not surprising.
My new standard is this - if the Yanks wouldn't want him, neither would I.
TB:
Good "scrub points" today. I totally concur. These players need to be scrubbed away unfortunately, with no exceptions made. They are all too one dimensional and lack MLB complete skill sets.
They are what they are.
If you include the pitching side as well, then Avilan, Sewald, and Flexen as well. I would also seriously entertain trades using Matz and Stroman. Both are too inconsistent, both are over-hyped. There are teams that would be interested in these two, and the Mets need new solid young players at 3B, RF, and late-inning lefty relief.
Comments of complaint without suggestion of improvement is quite meaningless and lame normally. It's kind of comparable to complaining to a mannequin.
So...
3B Position
A lot of fans like the notion of having either McNeil or JD Davis on Mets third base in 2020. It's a pretty legit suggestion to make. However, I like JD in left field (a lot) already. He's grown into LF remarkably well quickly, and has a great arm too. I would not change this.
Jeff McNeil could play anywhere (even on the moon) but I like Jeff a lot in left field and second base mainly. I would have Jeff on second base platooning with Robbie Cano in 2020. Cano shouldn't be expected to go six of six games each week. Plus, Robbie has been a very useful mentor speaking with the younger players while on the bench. Do not overlook this excellent Cano quality he has. He could wind up an MLB manager one day soon. So for McNeil, I'd use him three games starting on second base, and two game in the outfield to rest whomever the Mets have starting there full time.
As we all know, Jeff is an outstanding athlete and Mets player all around. The above suggestion is not meant to sound like Jeff in anyway is not an excellent and exceedingly valuable Mets starting player. But rather, in this way Robbie Cano also plays three games starting on second base each week, and maybe backs up third base for a start there. Cano would then be starting four games a week out of the six normally scheduled and getting his two game rests in to keep sharp longterm.
For Mets third base starting player, I'd look at guys like Michael Chavis and Bobby Dalbec from Boston. Others too from other teams. But the Red Sox are in desperate need of affordable pitching, both starting and relieving. The Mets have some trade pitchers now, that they could entice Boston with. The Red Sox also need a backup catcher. Something possibly like Gsellman and Mazeika, or maybe either Stroman or Matz might do here.
Right Field
I would upgrade right with a young player that has the ability each season to hit for a decent batting average, and strikeout a lot less. Get David to help with both the 3B abd RF upgrades maybe.
Manager
My two suggestions might be...Alfonso or Rojas.
Why?
Both have some experience, both know the Mets organization, how they think. "Fonzie" with Rojas in same position makes some sense too maybe.
After 3B, and RF.
Lefty late inning closer, like a younger Andrew Miller type of guy.
I have been posting about a two unit (of three relievers) type of bullpen lately, and thought that this idea had never been done in MLB. Well, I was wrong here, it had been. A Red Sox fan friend of mine, told me (after I explained this to him) that this same plan was used in the 2018 Boston Red Sox WS season, and he was right.
Boston had "The Spider Man" and Nathan Eovaldi relief closing in the 2018 WS, if you recall. Relievers like Workman, Barnes, Kelly...They all were put into one of the two unit teams of relievers that led into one of the two superb closers then. The units were employed every other game, allowing for each unit to be used in one game, then rest the next.
So much for my frickin' "novel idea". I cannot seem to ever win, can I?
But here's where I take it to the next level. I have the two units of three, but all three relievers within each of the two units could be used interchangeably in my suggestion, regardless of the inning that they were to come in.
Why?
Because relief pitching is about one thing, getting batters out. Right? It isn't rocket science. It doesn't matter what the inning is, the mission does not change. If all six relievers were to have decent MLB mph and drop on their pitches, it should not matter when they come in. It won't replace analytics, but it will ease the selection process in each game of the correct reliever to bring in, making it more manageable for decision making.
The seventh reliever in this idea would be a durable lefty one, with KO ability as well. Right now, I am sort of thinking of maybe a Kevin Smith type pitcher for this actual role. Someone who could be used in a pinch, when bringing in another lefty reliever might be essential to a victory. Also, someone who could be used for more than just an inning of relief, and be a sixth starter when needed as well.
And finally, the bench.
I wasn't "overly enthralled" with the NY Mets bench in 2019. It seemed a little lacks and slacks at times to me.
For 2020...
I like the idea of breaking in a new backup catcher, and sending everyone in this role from 2019...home. (No pun intended here of course)
I like catcher Ali Sanchez the best from Mets MiLB. I's use Mazeika in a trade to Boston perhaps. Sanchez is the guy I would groom for not only this role (backing up to Ramos) but also with the intention of Ali being a starting catcher after Wilson Ramos retires. So Ali is my new backup catcher to be groomed.
The only other two MiLB Mets that caught my eye in 2019, players who could perhaps be a part of the 2020 Mets bench, are infielder Danny Espinosa (20 HR, .256 BA), and then CF outfielder Braxton Lee (.266 BA and an OBP of .339)
Lee becomes the new Lagares and backs up Brandon Nimmo, while Danny Espinosa becomes that veteran stable utility infielder the team will definitely need in 2020.
Thanks for reading. Mack, I totally concur with you too on having Brach, Lugo, Diaz, and Wilson in the 2020 NYM bullpen. I might consider Matt Blackham as well, since his MiLB numbers were so outstanding in 2019. They just need to add-in a really good lefty later inning reliever, someone like a Johnny Franco or Andrew Miller. Then it is all set. Two units of three, plus a lefty durable guy for the seven.
Rotational
Is having six starters really such a lame idea after all?
It makes some sense to get starters an extra day of rest. Could help to prevent tired arm syndrome and other injuries too.
Here's my five and then sixth selection.
1. deGrom 2. Syndergaard 3. Miley (reasonable salary and good 2019 stats, left-hander too.) 4. Wheeler (make him a reasonable offer and see) 5. Harol Gonzales and then maybe 6. Kevin Smith
Traded could be Steven Matz (and his implosions) and the over-hyped Marcus Stroman. One would be in a deal to acquire a new young third baseman. The other for a young homerun hitting right fielder who can also hit for average. Both pitchers have had some success, both are known by other teams and desirable.
Tonight's NYY vs. Houston game...This is where the NYY starting rotation issues could probably begin.
Here's the thing with the Nationals.
If memory serves me correctly, the Mets took 12 of 19 games this season versus the Nationals. All that stpped them from a Playoff spot is their bullpen.
Nationals and Houston most likely, unless NYY were to get really fortunate. Yankees have better batting, more homerun hitters, but the Astros have the starting pitching and usually the pitching wins in these types of playoff games.
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