10/18/19

Tom Brennan - METS' RELIEVERS AGAINST GOOD AND BAD SQUADS

5 comments

I will use "Trump-speak" regarding the challenges key Mets relievers face against opposing teams:

Teams that are under .500 are GOOD for them..."VERY GOOD".


Teams that are over .500 are BAD for them..."VERY BAD".


As a general rule, anyway.




How did our big relief arms (Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Jeurys Familia, and Justin Wilson) do against the GOOD and the BAD?  (Stats sourced from Baseball Reference).


Diaz:


Against .500+ teams:  146 PAs   .273/.331/.538   9 HR   26 Runs


Against .500- teams:   108 PAs   .237/.333/.452   6 HR   10 Runs


Not great against either group, but clearly worse against the big, BAD boys where it counts most - RUNS ALLOWED.



Lugo:


Against .500+ teams:   213 PAs   .213/.271/.360   6 HR   23 Runs


Against .500- teams:     99 PAs    .149/.192/.223   2 HR     5 Runs


Solid against the BAD boys, but lots more runs against the GOOD boys.  Still: "So great, so great."



Familia:


Against .500+ teams:  183 PAs    .285/.401/.470   5 HR  31 Runs


Against .500- teams:     91 PAs   ..253/.378/.373  2 HR    8 Runs



We lived through Wild Walking Jeurys in 2019, but he gave up a lot more runs per plate appearance against .500+ teams.


Wilson:


Against .500+ teams:   90 PAs    .203/.300/.380   4 HR  8 Runs


Against .500- teams:    76 PAs    ..258/.355/.303  0 HR  4 Runs


A bit more homer-prone against the over .500 teams, but excellent against both.





One thing is clear - these four guys spend most of their time pitching in high stress situations - 632 batters faced against teams .500 or over (63%), vs. just 374 batters faced against teams under .500 (37%).  

They allowed 24 HRs and 88 runs in total in those 632 PAs against the .500+ teams, a lot of offense allowed.

But just a slim 10 HRs and 27 runs against the sub. 500 teams in 374 PAs.

Part of their having to pitch 63% of their innings against .500+ seasons is truly that the Mets will use those front-end-of-pen arms, that they think are their best, in high pressure situations.


But part of it was oddly that they played SO MANY FRIGGIN' GAMES against tougher hitting .500+ teams.


In looking at these stats, I saw that, despite being over .500 themselves, they played 102 games against teams .500 and over (63%), and just 60 against teams under .500!!  

Against the over .500 teams, the Mets were 39-21, 3.16 ERA.

Against the under .500 teams, the Mets were just 47-55, 4.90 ERA.

At that rate, if the Mets played 63% of their games against teams UNDER .500, and only 37% OVER .500, they'd have won 94 games! 


But the Yanks?   

I always seem to come back to the Lucky Charm Yanks, don't I? 

Just 75 (46%) games against teams over .500 (43-32, 4.74 ERA), and 87 games against under .500 teams (60-27, 3.94 ERA).


So, assuming those Baseball Reference splits stats stats are accurate, keep in mind when considering how our key relievers did that the Mets played a very tough schedule - and, as common sense would tell you, and looking at the 4 Mets relievers above, pitchers don't do as well against a large diet of superior teams and a slim diet of inferior teams.

In other words, kudos to Wilson and Lugo for excelling against a lot of tough teams.

And let's be less inclined to throw Familia and Diaz out the window, OK?  

After all, they faced a lot of tougher-than-average opponents this year.


5 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Other things going on RE: Mets’ success, such as what I wrote about today, but sine manager selection is the topic du jour for those who have a single-minded focus, my take on Girardi as the Mets’ next manager?

It is largely up to him. Let’s see what he decides.

Meanwhile, the field was still wet after Wednesday’s Yank-Astro rainout, and the Yanks clearly slipped in some soggy doo-doo, that’s for sure. Nothing like being down 3-1, and the next two games feature 2019’s best two starters in Verlander and Cole. Lotsa luck, fellers.

Hobie said...

One could argue that the Met BP made some >,500 teams >,500.

Reese Kaplan said...

Ah, what we wouldn't do for a Terry Leach right now...

Mack Ade said...

I do not talk about the Yankees here.

Mack's Mets said...

Terry was great.

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