Mike Freire - World Series Preview and Prediction

Good Morning, Mets' fans!

In a previous article, I posted the 2019 MLB playoff field and I also explained how I prefer to break the different matchups down (refer to the same if you have any questions about what the factors listed below mean).  This series of articles continued throughout the playoffs and I experienced a decent amount of success by correctly picking five of the eight playoff matchups to date (to include both teams in the World Series). 

Now the fun begins as we are on the doorstep of the "big one" where we have what the media is describing as a David versus Goliath match up.  The Astros are the largest World Series favorite since 2007 and are expected to easily win their second title in the past three seasons.  I don't think things will be that simple, which is why they play the games, right?

Tuesday, October 22nd @ 808 PM (Minute Maid Park - Houston)

Game One (Seven Game Series)

Washington (101-71) versus Houston (114-59)

Max Scherzer                        Gerrit Cole

1. LAST 30 - Washington (23-7), Houston (21-9)

2. RUN DIFF - Washington (-3), Houston (-3)

3. FUNDAMENTALS (all);

 a. DEFENSE - Washington (.985%, 84 E), Houston (.988%, 71 E)

 b. BASERUNNING - Washington (111 SB, 86 SBA), Houston (65 SB, 75 SBA)

 c. BULLPEN - Washington (40/69 SV = 58%), Houston (45/65 SV = 69%)

4. ROAD % - Washington (47-39), Houston (47-36)

5.  HEAD 2 HEAD - These two teams did not play each other during the regular season in 2019.  However, they did meet six times in Spring Training, with the Nationals winning five of them (make of that what you will).

ANALYSIS/PICK - Boy, these two teams certainly look a LOT closer then the general narrative being produced by the media, especially when you look at the numbers above.  They both have excellent starting pitching, highlighted by the top of each rotation.  I mean, look at the scheduled starters for Game One (Scherzer/Cole) and Game Two (Strasburg/Verlander)!

Both teams are also fundamentally sound with the glove and on the base paths.  One slight difference could be the bullpens, but the Nationals' bullpen has been much better in the postseason, likely negating that advantage for the Astros.  Both teams can also MASH the baseball, evidenced by the Astros 920 runs scored in the regular season.  But, don't sleep on the Nationals who scored 873 runs themselves without the full-time benefit of the Designated Hitter.

OK, so what will decide this series, you might ask?

The Nationals knocked off the favored Dodgers in five games and then absolutely ran over the Cardinals in a four game NLCS sweep. Because of this success, they haven't played a game since last Monday (10/14), meaning EIGHT days will have passed by the time we get to Game One of the World Series.  Yes, the rest is beneficial and it allows the Nationals to set up their pitching staff for maximum effect.  BUT, could this also interrupt their momentum and result in a slow start?

The Astros finished off the Yankees in six games, as we all witnessed (thank you, Jose Altuve) in the ALCS.  This was a much more demanding/draining series and you have to wonder will it affect them moving forward?  They had to use Justin Verlander in Game Five, so he cannot start for them until the second game of the World Series.  Fortunately, they were able to save Gerrit Cole for the opener, so that isn't a bad place to be.

You have a "rested" Nationals squad who no one expected to be there against an "exhausted" Astros squad who everyone expected to be there.  Will this extra layer of pressure for the "favorites" play a role in the outcome?  Will the Nationals play "loose" since they are expected to roll over as a massive underdog?

I think this series will be more competitive then most folks think.  For years, the Nationals have been a very talented team that somehow fizzled in October.  They almost choked again, but were fortunate to win the Wild Card game against the Brewers earlier this month.  Since then, they seem to have figured things out and are a dangerous opponent in a short series with their pitching prowess.

However, the Astros have been the best team in baseball all year long and it isn't a fluke.  They can match the Nationals pitching and they have a deeper, more consistent lineup that SHOULD give them the advantage in close games.  Much like how the ALCS unfolded, I think the Nationals will give the Astros quite a battle.  But, when all is said and done, I like the Astros to win the World Series in six games.