Mike Freire - NLDS (WAS @ LAD) Preview and Prediction

Good Morning, Mets' fans.

In a previous article, I posted the 2019 MLB playoff field and I also explained how I prefer to break the different matchups down (refer to the same if you have any questions about what the factors listed below mean).  I will attempt to do so as the playoffs move along, while also predicting who I think will ultimately win each series the rest of the way.

So, let's take a look at the "other" half of the NLDS, starting in Los Angeles, CA.

October 3rd, 2019 - Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers (Game 1 of 5)

Washington (94-69)  and  Los Angeles (106-56) 

Patrick Corbin                  Walker Buehler

1. LAST 30 - Washington (19-11), Los Angeles (19-11) 

2. RUN DIFF - Washington (-3), Los Angeles (-3)

3. FUNDAMENTALS (all); 

 a. DEFENSE - Washington (.985% - 84 E), Los Angeles (.982% - 105 E)

 b. BASERUNNING - Washington (86 SBA, 111 SB), Los Angeles (63 SBA, 57 SB)

 c. BULLPEN-Washington (40/69 SV = 58%), Los Angeles (43/72 SV = 60%)

4. ROAD RECORD - Washington (43-38), Los Angeles (46-35)

5.  HEAD 2 HEAD - Los Angeles won 4 of the 7 games in 2019, to include splitting 

                                  four late May contests in Los Angeles, followed by the Dodgers

                                  winning 2 of 3 in Washington towards the end of July.

ANALYSIS/PICK - Not much of a contest on paper, right?  The Dodgers have been the best team in the National League for pretty much the last three years, with two bitter World Series defeats to show for their efforts.  This year is all about redemption, evidenced by their record (106-56) and INSANE run differential (+273, eclipsed only by the Astros).  Heck, they underachieved by three games this year and still won their division by 21 games.....I think they clinched the NL West sometime around the Fourth of July (kidding).

A team this dominant and on a "mission" to finally win a championship simply will NOT be denied, right?  Well, in the immortal words of Lee Corso, "not so fast my friends"!

By all accounts, the Nationals are a pretty talented team in their own right.  If they had gotten off to a better start in 2019, they might have challenged the Braves for the NL East title.  Or, if a certain Brewers reliever/outfielder combination had done their jobs last night, then maybe the National are already home for the Winter, much like the Bryce Harper years (sorry, couldn't help myself).  Funny how the little things end up deciding things, isn't it?

With that said, I still think the Dodgers are the better team on paper and they SHOULD win this series.  But, there are a few concerning things in the listed metrics above that should be mentioned.  Namely, they committed 105 errors on the season and their bullpen is a bit erratic (60% save conversion) with Kenley Jansen struggling by his standards.  Oh and they aren't the fastest team on the planet with only 57 stolen bases as a team for the year, so "small ball" run creation could be problematic.  Could any of these issues rear their ugly head in a close game, leading to an unexpected loss or two?

Oh and the Nationals can throw Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg at the Dodgers in Games 2 and 3, so that will play a huge role in how this relatively short series pans out.  Fortunately, the Dodgers can counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, but make no mistake, the Nationals three man rotation is formidable to say the least.

I think the Nationals have a real shot at making the Dodgers work hard to win this series and they COULD even steal it out from under the "preseason favorites".  However, the Dodgers' overall talent advantage will ultimately prevail, but not without a few surprises along the way thanks to the issues mentioned above.

My pick is the Dodgers in five games.