Mike Freire - NLDS (STL@ATL) Preview and Prediction

Good Morning, Mets' fans.

In a previous article, I posted the 2019 MLB playoff field and I also explained how I prefer to break the different matchups down (refer to the same if you have any questions about what the factors listed below mean).  I will attempt to do so as the playoffs move along, while also predicting who I think will ultimately win each series the rest of the way.

So, let's get started with the first half of the NLDS, starting in Atlanta, GA.

October 3rd, 2019 - St Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (Game One of Five)

St Louis (91-71)  and  Atlanta (97-65) 

Miles Mikolas             Dallas Keuchel

1. LAST 30 - St Louis (17-13), Atlanta (18-12) 

2. RUN DIFF - St Louis (-1), Atlanta (+5)

3. FUNDAMENTALS (all); 

 a. DEFENSE - St Louis (.989% - 66 E), Atlanta (.987% - 78 E)

 b. BASERUNNING - St Louis (33 SBA, 115 SB), Atlanta (76 SBA, 88 SB)

 c. BULLPEN - St Louis (52 SV-73 SVC = 71%), Atlanta (44 SV-66 SVC = 66%)

4. ROAD RECORD - St Louis (41-40), Atlanta (47-34)

5.  HEAD 2 HEAD - Atlanta won 4 of the 6 games in 2019, BUT both three game

                                   series were in May (Atlanta won 2 of 3 in both).

ANALYSIS/PICK - This is an interesting series pitting a couple of teams that have been 

the proverbial thorn in the Mets' side from the 1980's until now.  Can we root for both to lose?

Kidding aside, the Braves look like the stronger team on paper (full season record and their seasonal results against the Cardinals even though the Braves likely overachieved a bit during the year).  Plus, while both teams hit a rough patch down the stretch of the regular season, at least Atlanta had the division title sewn up and didn't have much to play for.  The Cardinals surged past the Cubs and Brewers, but then tried to give things away until the final day of the year so it is fair to wonder what shape they are in as they take on the Braves.

Both teams are not starting their "aces", but the Game One pitching match up is pretty even on paper (Keuchel puts a lot of runners on base, despite his lower ERA).  The Cardinals still have Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha to pick from, while Atlanta still has Mike Soroka, Julio Teheran, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz in reserve for the rest of this series.  Nice rotations for both squads and I cannot necessarily pick one over the other (neither team pitches like the Astros, for example).

What did catch my eye is that both teams are fundamentally sound, especially the Cardinals with their stout defense and control over the running game.  The Braves are not far behind and it is usually a recipe for success in close games (if only the Mets were listening).  Statistically, the Braves bullpen was a bit shakier then the Cardinals bullpen, which COULD become an issue at some point in the series, especially if one of the aforementioned starters has a shorter outing then desired.

So, what will happen?

I don't see either team beating themselves (like the Brewers did), so this will come down to execution and pitching prowess.  IF the Cardinals are going to win this series, I think they need to win Game One for a myriad of reasons to include the fact that they are NOT a good road team "record wise" and they are not as strong offensively as the Braves (Atlanta scored almost 100 runs more during the year).  They simply cannot leave Atlanta without at least a split of the first two games.

If the Cardinals get the listed split in Atlanta, I think this series could go the full five games.  If not......perhaps a sweep would be in the works.

Despite the fact that these teams haven't played since late May, I like the Braves chances to advance to the NLCS (in four games).