HIGH VELOCITY!!!!
I have been a big supporter of high velocity Mets on-again-off-again closer Edwin Diaz, not in terms of his performance in 2019 (occasionally brilliant, frequently awful), but in terms of his potential and not getting rid of him due to his potential.
But how does Diaz compare to cross town rival closer Aroldis Chapman?
Well, but throw incredibly hard - but Chapman was the absolute King of Velocity and at his peak, when he threw harder than Diaz does now.
But both do throw exceedingly hard - and do strike out a whole lot of people.
But where do they differ?
Primarily in home runs allowed.
Chapman has only allowed 27 homers in his 535 career innings. Even more impressive, over his last 336 innings from 2014-2019, he has allowed just 14 HRs, or one every 24 innings pitched.
Diaz had a fine HRs-allowed season in his banner 2018 season with the Mariners, when he allowed just 5 homers in 73 innings allowed.
But 2017 and 2019 were different stories.
In 2017, Diaz allowed 10 dingers in 66 innings, or 1 every 6 2/3 innings.
In 2019, Diaz allowed a staggering 15 HRs in 58 innings, or one every 3.87 innings.
Walks-wise, Diaz has clearly been better - one every 3 innings in his career, while Chapman has allowed a 4.1 walks per 9.
But hits-wise, Chapman has allowed just 300 hits in those 535 innings, or 5 hits per 9 innings.
Diaz was just as good in 2018, allowing 41 hits in 73 innings, also 5 hits per 9 innings.
But that slipped to a hit per inning in 2019, a huge increase.
BOTH FAN BOATLOADS!
K's wise, Chapman has perhaps slowed slightly, but in 2013-2015, he fanned an insane 338 in 184 innings, or 15.5 per 9. Over his career, he has fanned 883 in 535 innings, or 14.85 per 9 innings.
Diaz has fanned 400 in his 249 innings, or 14.5 per 9 innings. Pretty darned close to Chapman.
My take on all that? A few things:
- It is possible that Diaz got overworked a bit in 2018 with his 73 outings and 73 innings. Both are higher numbers than Chapman ever logged in a regular season.
- Seeing Chapman's slider, it is better than the one I saw Diaz throwing in 2019. I recall a number of Diaz's homers allowed coming off hanging sliders.
- I get the sense that Chapman is willing to allow more walks per 9 innings than Diaz, due to pitching out of the strike zone more deliberately, to try to get hitters to chase and swing at bad pitches that they have little time to react to. Chapman seems to go high with the fastball, hoping hitters will chase, and low with the sliders. Diaz, to me, was just over the heart of the plate too much. In the year of the homer, that location is not the place to be pitching.
He may want to follow what I see as the Chapman try-to-get-them-fishing model.
And try to really fix that slider.
If he does, I think Diaz can return to 2018 greatness, or close to it.
I would also allow someone else to share the closing duties, to lessen the pressure on him.
Those are my thoughts on Edwin Diaz vs. Aroldis Chapman - what are yours?
9 comments:
Flat out his poor performance costs us a post season visit so he HAS to get it right for next season but no question you can't deal him but of course he needs help in the pen.
Gary, he needs to watch Aroldis Chapman tapes all winter, and duplicate what he does.
I've been of the belief it was something physical, not anything he was doing differently. The workload the previous season may have been it and he simply didn't have the ability he had in the past. I'm surprised the team doctors never (at least publicly) indicated that they had examined him after such uncharacteristically poor results.
Tom I agree and some Mariano tapes (Tom by the way saying tapes ages us:) would be helpful as well if not so much pitch selection but how he carried himself and handling the whole New York fishbowl thing.
I think that Diaz is an excellent reliever who started to second guess himself after the horrible way he was handled in the first half of the season.
My guess is he is not watching playoff baseball and taking mental time off from a crap season.
On a different topic I wonder how all the Acuna lack of hustle thing plays out long term what with his 100 mil. 10 yr contract as he seems to remind me of our old friend "The Straw man" which has to make the FO brass alittle nervous. He's certainly the, pardon the pun, polar opposite of Pete and thank God for us. I'm not saying Acuna has a substance abuse issue but lackadaisical play certainly cost the team and often wonder with players who have other worldly talent and are so much better than their peers staying motivated at such a young age can be a problem and add to it of course that dreaded guaranteed contract. We'll always wonder (yes somewhat different curcumstances) "what if" with both Doc and Straw if they didn't have those issues what they could have accomplished. Very Sad indeed.
Diaz? I say he will be comeback player of the year next season.
Acuna? The answer to his problem is he has too much:
Hakuna Matata
It's his "problem-free philosophy"
Love Diaz, despite the rough 2019 season.....give him another shot in 2020 to be the closer, IMO.
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