Mets360 - Who would be more valuable to the 2021 Mets – Edwin Diaz or Zack Wheeler?

 

By Brian Joura December 3, 2020

In a recent Open Thread, commenter NMK suggested – snarkily, in my reading – that the Mets trade Edwin Diaz for Zack Wheeler. It’s a trade that has zero chance of happening. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in discussing this as if it was a possibility, examining the pros and cons of such a deal for the Mets. 

Diaz was the best reliever in baseball in 2018 and he was much, much closer to being the worst reliever in 2019. He had a strong bounce back season in 2020, recovering from a shaky opening to the year, which included losing his closer’s job, to finish the abbreviated campaign with a 1.75 ERA, a 1.247 WHIP and a .596 OPS. Those are terrific numbers and if given a chance, everyone would sign on the dotted line to get those results from Diaz in 2021.

Trading Diaz would create a big hole in the bullpen, which currently has a huge cast of characters but few good late inning options. But there are several good reliever options available on the free agent market, all likely to cost fewer dollars than, say, Trevor Bauer.

Meanwhile, the Mets’ rotation has two givens and a bunch of question marks. It’s a foregone conclusion that the club will acquire at least one solid or better SP and no one will be surprised if they added two. So, would they be better off with Wheeler or Diaz moving forward?

Wheeler has put his injury problems in the rear-view mirror. He has 71 starts the last three seasons, just eight away from the leader and just one fewer than Bauer. His 10.8 fWAR ranks eighth in the majors. Interestingly, Bauer is right ahead of him, ranked seventh with an 11.6 total. Wheeler is durable and able to go deeper in games than when he was younger. In his first three seasons in the majors, Wheeler had a 4.0 BB/9. In his last three years, he’s posted a 2.4 walk rate.

In a vacuum, starting pitchers are more valuable than ace relievers. No club in this era is going to give out a nine-digit salary to a closer, which is what Wheeler got from the Phillies a year ago. And Wheeler is far from the highest-paid starter around. If Bauer opts for a long-term deal and gets the same number of years, he’ll likely pull down a larger contract than Wheeler did. And if he opts for a shorter deal, you’ll have no problem finding other starters in the league being paid more, including one already on the Mets.

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