Mike's Mets - Is Paying Big for a Starter Still a Wise Move?

 

By Mike Steffanos December 10, 2020 

I was taking a look at potential Mets target Jake Odorizzi's stats today. While Sandy Alderson certainly hasn't come out and said anything, Odorizzi is widely viewed as a fallback from Trevor Bauer, depending on how the Mets elect to allocate their spending and what other offers Bauer receives. One thing that immediately jumps out when I looked at Odorizzi was the innings totals. The guy has a pretty substantial track record as a 5 innings and out pitcher. Throwing his lost 2020 season out, in 2019 Jake averaged 5.3 innings per outing, in 2018 it was 5.1, and 2017 was also 5.1. Those aren't shocking numbers given the way the game has evolved away from being dominated by starters, but I still found it eye-opening.

In contrast, also tossing out last season's weirdness, Trevor Bauer's average per outing was 6.3 in 2019, 6.3 in 2018, and 5.5 in 2017. Neither pitcher is likely to make it around to the end of a game. Bauer has 5 complete games in his 9 year MLB career, and Odorizzi has yet to accomplish that feat a single time over his 9 MLB seasons. Yet Bauer is clearly the best pitcher available as a free agent and Odorizzi is probably the second best. It all goes to show how much things have changed in the game.

Trevor Bauer's lifetime ERA is 3.90, which is only a miniscule upgrade from Odorizzi's 3.92. In fairness, Bauer is looked at as having made a significant jump in effectiveness thanks to the magic of spin rate, but that remains to be proven going forward. Even so, the difference between what it will cost to sign Trevor Bauer and the cost to ink Odorizzi is going to be quite significant in both years and millions of dollars. It's unlikely that Bauer will continue to put up sub-2.00 ERAs, but even if he manages to keep his ERA under 3, we're talking maybe an extra 30 or so innings and less than a run per start difference between the two pitchers. I'm not trying to pretend here that the difference between Bauer and Odorizzi is trivial, but I am starting to think that older fans like myself value starting pitching a little higher than we should. After all, I grew into my fandom in an era when starting pitching was king.

Tim Britton had a piece in The Athletic a couple of days ago where he looked at options for the Mets to sign free agents while staying under the luxury tax threshold. I don't agree with all of his choices, especially Marcus Semien, but his "Plan A" involved cheaper pitching options than Trevor Bauer, choosing to spend more on position players. That approach may very well prove to be the smart play when all is said and done. Especially with deGrom and Stroman already at the top of the rotation and Noah Syndergaard returning during the season, maybe fortifying with a cheaper option such as Odorizzi and spending big elsewhere makes more sense. If they went that route, however, I'd like to see them sign a decent starter or two for depth — I don't want to see Steven Matz as the fifth starter at coming out of spring training unless he really earns it.

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