Reese Kaplan - The Grass Is Always Greener

I remember once seeing an illustration of how the bank, how you and how the tax assessor’s office value your home.  To the bank your home is a ramshackle hodgepodge of mismatched planks of wood that a strong gust of wind would turn into a pile of kindling.  To you it’s a perfectly adequate and comfortable dwelling.  To the tax assessor it’s a miniature Taj Mahal and should be valued as such.  This conundrum came to mind during all of the trade talks and rumors emanating from Orlando during the Winter meetings.  What is the true value of the players the Mets allegedly are shopping to other teams?

First you have to decide which role you’re going to play for this exercise.  To Sandy Alderson, his players are the crème de la crème – the ultimate in Abner Doubleday’s vision and the Spalding guide on how the game should be played.  To the hypothetical trade partners, what you’re offering up are a bunch of whiny, out of shape head cases whose best future is the only guy at a third rate baseball card show with no one in line for his autograph.  The fans are far from neutral, leaning strongly one way or the other.

If you don’t believe me, throw out the name of Ike Davis to a dozen or so knowledgeable fans and you’ll get a divergence of opinion ranging from “they should have non-tendered him” to “you can’t trade away 32 HR power – and that was in just half a season!”  Let’s take a look at the most frequently mentioned names who either might be traded or affected by personnel changes and see if we can determine their actual value.  For purposes of this exercise, recognize that a league average hitter posts a batting average of .261, on on-base percentage of .329 and a slugging percentage of .414:

Ike Davis – For his career Ike is at .242/.334/.434 respectively.  What that says to me is that his spike in walks last year put him just over average for OBP, his power is slightly higher and his batting average slightly lower.  There may be a reason no one is jumping at Sandy Alderson’s offers of his services.  If you wind up keeping him, then you’re hoping that his 2011 batting average of .302 slugging percentage of .543 in roughly ¼ of a season is not an outlier but indicative of what he’s capable of doing.  Cutting him doesn’t make sense.  With the acquisition of Curtis Granderson it’s possible that he won’t feel the same pressure to be the sole source of left handed power.  It could also be that a straight platoon of he and Josh Satin or Wilmer Flores could produce in aggregate very solid numbers from the position.

Daniel Murphy – Here’s a guy who is posting a career numbers of .290/.333/.424.  You have someone in the upper tier of batting average and slightly better than average in the other two categories.  Throw in his 87% success rate in steals last year and all indications are that you should either net a significant return (higher than would Davis) or start the season with clear expectations of another solid offensive year.  My interpretation of the Cesar Izturis flirtation is that they’re actually considering Wilmer Flores as a viable 2nd base option, hence the need for a solid glove man for late inning replacement and mentoring of the position to someone whose offensive skills are far ahead of his defensive acumen.

Ruben Tejada – While he’s not exactly Ozzie Smith with the glove nor Jean Segura on the base paths, for a two-year period Tejada has posted a line of .285/.350/.340.  The power will never come, of course, but the batting average and OBP for a solid if unspectacular glove man are respectable and if there was solid production from 1B and the new outfielders then you could certainly live with him at shortstop.  If you could swing a deal for an upgrade, he’d be a terrific sub at both middle infield positions that won’t embarrass you when he plays.

Lucas Duda – A year older than Ike Davis, the quite big man boasts (well, maybe not the best choice of words) a career slash line of .246/.342/.424.  Essentially it’s a case of picking your poison between he and Ike Davis.  Their production is very similar but Duda has been more consistently mediocre whereas Davis has had more extreme ups and downs.  People often point to him hitting better when he plays 1B, but there is little evidence to support that conjecture.  The most games he ever played at 1B was 43 in 2011 and he played 46 in the outfield that same year.  That season he finished with a slash line of .292/.370/.482.  Those numbers are nice, but not as nice as Ike Davis’ production in his best season.  Duda’s only claim to the 1B race this year is his minimal salary.

Eric Young – The NL stolen base champ’s numbers are pretty ugly.  His slash line of .258/.325/.358 is below league average in every category (and that includes the first 300 games of his career in the hitter’s paradise of Colorado – OK, so not all his games were played in Coor’s Field, but the point is he has had an opportunity to pad his stats and it showed.  His slash line for the Mets was .251/.318/.325 – even worse.  He has no business starting for a major league team but could be a valuable pinch runner and late inning replacement player.  If they do trade Daniel Murphy then Wilmer Flores should be the next in line, defensive shortcomings notwithstanding.

Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard – Hot pitching prospects are always in high demand.  The Mets traded a likely Hall of Famer even up for one when the Giants deemed a Carlos Beltran two month rental worthy of sacrificing Zack Wheeler.  However, for every Matt Harvey who comes down the pike there are scores of Generation K types who never seem to put it all together.  Most recently the Mets grew frustrated with Mike Pelfrey for just this reason.  While it’s nice to drool over a rotation in the future that might include Harvey, Wheeler, Jon Niese, Montero, Syndergaard, Mejia, Gabriel Ynoa, Steve Matz and others, there’s no guarantee that the prospects will ever fulfill their potential.  For as much heartache as it would cause the fan base, these players are the ones that will bring back the shortstop, 1st baseman and/or number one starter that the team needs in 2014.  One of these pitchers combined with a Daniel Murphy or Wilmer Flores plus Ike Davis or Lucas Duda, you might even pry an All-Star batter from another team.  The Diamondbacks last year took Martin Prado (a slight upgrade from Daniel Murphy) plus Randall Delgado (a slight downgrade from Rafael Montero) and a few warm bodies to acquire slugger Justin Upton.  If you want a J.J. Hardy (with a contract extension) or Starlin Castro or Elvis Andrus (with their respective clubs eating a portion of their bloated contracts), it’s going to take that kind of package.  If you want Troy Tulowitzki it’s going to take MORE.

What most fans don’t realize is that you have to give to get.  The Mets are not shopping a Cy Young Award winner, a Hall of Fame outfielder or even an NL Batting Champion.  They have some “nice” players who by themselves in trade will not likely net you much.  However, combined with players who have the potential to do more, then you could see some significant returns.

Starting behind the eight ball with Harvey down for the year, Parnell not a guarantee to start the season healthy, Mejia now shelved until May and the dual pitching gems awaiting their Super Two deadlines to pass, it’s going to be mighty hard to get to a .500 record unless more quality players are added.  What the fans have to ask themselves is if they want to punt the 2014 season before it begins, waiting for the return of Matt Harvey and the emergence of Montero and Thor, or do they want to see more competitive baseball now? I’m in the latter camp.  Alderson should do what he can to improve at shortstop, 1st base, the rotation and the pen.  Although I’ll get slayed for saying it, if the only offensive option Alderson gets offered is a corner outfielder, then Juan Lagares will have to spend 2014 as the next Endy Chavez, joining Eric Young on the bench.