8/13/14

MMs Top 25: #18 SS Amed Rosario



#18 SS Amed Rosario (LR#23)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 170 lb
Age: 18
Acquired: 2012 International Signing, Dominican Republic

2014: (SS-A) .282/.327/.373, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 7 SB (70%), 13 BB, 35 K
2013: (R) .241/.279/.358, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 2 SB (25%), 11 BB, 43 K


    After being aggressively brought stateside and struggling through the lowest levels of minor league ball, Amed Rosario worked extremely hard over the off-season and the results of his training have shown this year. Despite not putting up great numbers in Rookie Ball, the Mets front office gave Rosario another aggressive assignment to Brooklyn where he has been facing college level pitchers all season long. Despite playing against guys 3 yrs older than him, Rosario has excelled in the NY Penn League showing why he was deemed as a potential superstar by Baseball America.

     This year for the Cyclones, which is home to one of the tougher hitting environments, Rosario has his batting average up over the .280 mark while his OPS hovers at an even .700. While the power numbers aren't too hot right now, Rosario should fill his body out more as he matures and develop more power. That combined with his natural opposite field driving abilities could potentially develop into 20 HR power which would be a premium at the SS position.

     Rosario is being placed on almost everyone's Top 10 lists this season, but, we have to remember that he's only 18 and still have 4 levels of minor league ball to move through. At this point scouts believe he will develop at least 4 plus tools with the potential to become a true 5 tool player if he can maintain his speed and continue developing power. If he continues to develop, he should continue his steady climb up the list.

Ceiling: Super-Star starting SS (Troy Tulowitzski type player) 
Floor: Fizzles out in the upper minors due to lack of body development or injury (ala Fernando Martinez.)

10 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Wow... Tulo to F-Mart... that's quite a range.

I'm surprised he's this low on the list. I would have had him in the top 20 in tools alone.

Also, he's hitting .305 (32-for-105) in his past 24 games.

Anonymous said...

Well is still very young only 18.

He jumped 5 spots in between lists....Could be in the Top 10 at age 19. Top 3 by age 20.

Anonymous said...

This is where I stop following this thread. It has lost all credibility to me. No prospect is a 100% sure to make it or they wouldn't call them prospects. So Amed could turn out to be an F-Mart type bust. He is 2 1/2 years younger than Conforto and playing on the same team. When you factor in defense he is out playing Conforto. Even if you just go by offense he is not that much behind Conforto and his numbers are going forward while Conforto's are going backwards. He plays a premium position very well while Conforto struggles to play a much less demanding position to an adequate level. There is no player in the Mets organization more talented than Rosario. That includes the major league roster. Will he live up to that potential? Only time will tell. But there is no way there are 17 better prospects in the Mets system. If you gave any MLB G.M. his pick of 6 or 7 Metss prospects not 1 of the 30 would leave the Mets with Rosario.

Mack Ade said...

Richard -

Everything Chris does here is one man's opinion and the actual ranking of each individual player may vary from what you and I think, but, when he's done, he'll have a workable top 25 list that is worthy of reading.

I'm a big ceiling guy and I have been wrong over the years because I get too hyped up too early.

I would have had him in the 10-15 range, but that's just me... but nothing Chris does here should chase you off the work he puts in

Anonymous said...

@Richard

I have always indicated in previous threads that my prospect rankings weighs heavily on the proximity of a prospect to the major leagues.

I have also stated in the past that this a contintually rolling list which prevents prospects from jumping too many spots in between rankings. A Last Rank of #23 to #18 is a very strong jump with the possibility of jumping another 5 spots next time we do this in february when Rosario should only in in Single A Savannah.

While yes Amed and Conforto are both at the same level and Rosario plays a more premium position, Conforto has a smoother swing and will be climb the minor league system much more rapidly than Rosario will.

Plus if you read our previous update on Rosario, you'll see that Rosario carries a TON more risk than Conforto does due to

".....some leg kick action, his hand path is ugly, and he dips his hands very low at the beginning creating length and a poor plane through the zone. -Source Baseball America"

Jmac said...

Mack, really like your blog. Am sure Chris and the others are just stating their opinion, but some times the opinion is so incorrect that readers have to say so. This is one of those instances. A "prospect" list is by definition looking into a crystal ball to imagine who will have the most impact at the major league level. "Proximity to the big leagues," as Chris replies, is a dubious factor. Amed Rosario not only is better than #18 on any list, he may be the Mets's #1 "prospect" right now. At least a consensus top 5 guy under any measure. I share Richard's critique here. Respectfully this is just a bad analysis and ranking Chris.

Craig Brown said...

Prospect ranking is a tough business to be in..

If Chris had ranked Rosario @ #2, he would have caught hell for ranking an unproven kid so high..

kudos to Chris for putting in all this work just to have guys like us pick it apart on a daily basis..

Anonymous said...

The "Proximity to the big leagues" is garbage and Chris is not being consistent with it. If he were Matt Reynolds and Josh Satin would be in the top 5. They're only a couple of weeks from flushing. Conforto has a higher strike out rate than Rosario at exactly the same level. Rosario is 2 and a half years younger. If you want to make F-Mart comparisons and analyze swings. F-Mart had a much sweater swing than Conforto by any scouting report. F-Mart had more success, at a higher level than Conforto. The pitchers in the NY-Penn league are learning how to pitch Conforto and Conforto hasn't proven he can adjust. I'm not giving up on Conforto but he has just has much a chance of pulling an F-Mart as Rosario does. Actually more of a chance because Rosario has more to offer than just his bat. If Conforto doesn't rake he has no value. Rosario can hit .250 with 10 homers a season and still have value.
I do see a reason for giving prospects who have proven they can hit AA or AAA pitching more points. I have Rosario ranked higher than Herrera. However if someone disagrees with that I can see the reason. Herrera is raking in AA. AA often separates the F-Marts from the Gomez's.

Anonymous said...

Rosario #18??????? So I guess you have Reynolds ranked ahead of Rosario as a prospect? Curious to see who are the other 17 guys who are better prospects than Rosario.

Mack Ade said...

Jmac - well, that what people like you are here for

All I ask is everybody stay a gentelman