10/10/14

Morning Report - October 10 - System Evaluation - SS

13 comments


We move on to our look at the talent and depth within the Mets system, by position. In this case, shortstop.

This used to be easy. Write in the name Jose Reyes and move on...

Queens wise, the season was split between Ruben Tejada and Wilmer Flores. As incumbent, Tejada had first shot and disappointed, but Flores didn’t impress either in the early months. It was only when he was told that it would be his position for the remainder of the season did he begin to flourish. 

In August, Flores .253 in 79 at-bats, but he improved on that in September, hitting 4-HR and driving in 13-RBIs. I think the Mets are going to strongly consider continuing this in-game experiment (he’ll play at 24 next year and will be under team control into the next century), but, at the same time, they’ll dangle a few of their excess starters and see if these is an upgrade available in the market.

Either way, Tejada is best destined to become a utility middle infielder making over a $1mil a year playing baseball in New York City. Tough work if you can get it.

In Las Vegas, there was Matt Reynolds (267-AB, .333/.385/.479/.864), Wilmer Flores (220-AB, .323/.367/.568/.935, 13-HR), and Omar Quintanilla (155-AB, .232). We all know what happened to Flores, who easily could have sealed Reynolds’ fate in 2015. On paper, both these guys have earned a promotion but nobody ever says anything nice about Reynolds (other than Thomas Brennan/MM). There’s quite a logjam behind him so I think there is a good chance that T.J. Rivera is promoted here in 2015 and splits time with Reynolds (Rivera also plays first).

In Binghamton, there was T.J. Rivera (201-AB, .358/.394/.438/.831), Matt Reynolds (211-AB, .355), and Rylan Sandoval (107-AB, .262). Rivera is blocked at both positions he plays (SS-1B), but he needs to move on so (probably) Phillip Evans comes up from St. Lucie.

In St. Lucie, there was Evans (389-AB, .247), and Gavin Cecchini (233-AB, .236). Cecchini had a halfway decent first half for the Sand Gnats but disappointed again at the A+ level. Pro-life hasn’t yet translated as a success for Cecchini and, because he’s still young I would consider returning him to St. Lucie until he gets it right.

In Savannah, there was Gavin Cecchini (228-AB, .259/.333/.408/.741), and Yeixon Ruiz (263-AB, .255). Any one of three ‘guppies’ could wind up here come spring… Amed Rosario, Luis Guillorme, or Milton Ramos.

In Brooklyn, there was Amed Rosario (266-AB, .289/.337/.380/.717) and Alfredo Reyes (31-AB, .258). Most think that Rosario has the best chance of any of the current minor leaguers of sometime becoming the starting Mets shortstop. He’s just a teenager so there isn’t any rush. I expect to see him here in Savannah come April.

In Kingsport, it was Guillorme (238-AB, .282/.337/.324/.661), which is pretty good for a guy not known for his bat. Guillorme has probably taken over the title (from Tovar) as the organization’s top defensive shortstop. He will really jam up this system if he keeps hitting like this.

For the GCL-Mets, there was Ramos (166-AB, .241) and Alfredo Reyes (157-AB, .236).

And for the DSL teams, there was Oliver Pascual (227-AB, .229) and Yeffry De Aza (203-AB, .300).

Overall Observation – Sometimes it seems like every top draft pick and every top Latin bonus baby signed is a shortstop. That being said, it would also have to said that, so far, the overall results have to be considered disappointing. There is no clear-cut favorite here for the Mets long term solution at short and all this uncertainty makes a good case for looking outside the organization for the solution. Flores will probably get the nod in 2015 if for no other reason than he’s cheap and has the potential to hit 20+ home runs (four in September, plus 13-RBI)). I have no problem with a 24-HR, 78-RBI (prorate September 2014) shortstop.

Past that, there’s a lot of talent on this page and there is a good chance someone will have a breakout season that sets him apart from the other names here. My guess it will be either Rosario or De Aza.


Overall Rating – Incomplete

13 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

I know we ain't playing horsehoes, where "close" counts, but Flores got real close to homers on at least 3 balls in Aug and Sep. Move fences in slightly (yes, in left field too, since the ball often does not carry in Citi) and his #'s are much more compelling. So unless we get a Chris Owings, Wilmer can be our Chuck Hiller at shortstop (just better). I think Flores will really hit in 2015.

If Mets were to trade for Owings, I could see Murphy going elsewhere, Flores to 2nd and Herrera in AAA for some more seasoning. All assuming Wright is OK and Wilmer does not end up at 3rd.

Matt Reynolds got himself on the map in 2014 - now he has winter ball to continue to show that those who feel he is better than the pundits are right by having a strong AFL (I also felt the same way about Lagares back when, when some pundits felt he should be left off the 40 man roster after 2012's off year).

Matt, of course, is 0-6 so far, so he needs to prove 2014 was the real deal. Puello last year hit off-season ball with a distinct thud, so let's see if Matt can have a strong stint out west.

Then we'll see about his role for 2015.

eraff said...

Like most of you I want to see Flores thrive...and if he's 24/78 we could figure out a late game defensive sub as necessary.

Here's the problem....I've seen ALL of his ab's, not just the ones during his Hot Streaks, or during September versus bad pitchers...I've seen ALL of them.

I want to see a fast bast, consistent contact...I want to be impressed by the way the ball comes off his Bat (see Dilson Herrera). The problem is, I haven't seen that....I want to see it...I haven't.

His Vegas numbers are good, and I don;t like to evaluate young players on output..... but ALL Vegas numbers are Good or BETTER.

If they SOLVE left field and Wright/Grandy get to 88% of their baseball card, and d'Arnaud can do 135 games similar to his 2nd half...SSS will not be a problem.

Thomas Brennan said...

I have not seen all of Wilmer's ABs like you did, so that is a good insight from you on Flores.

He rarely strikes out something like 14 times in 190 at bats after his recall), though, which says an awful lot in this day and age, and so my gut tells me he will get it done in 2015 - but I hear your warning bells on bat speed. A bat at any speed needs to make contact - Wilmer does.

Ernest Dove said...

If I wake up, 4 years from now, and read reports somewhere in mets universe that Amed Rosario is a talented prospect without a position, who can I hurt?

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

I don't think Ewings will be available to anyone via a trade.

Gregorious for Montero... probably

Mack Ade said...

All -

I'm not sure anyone will ever be happy with what Flores does at short. He's going to defensively play it like Murphy plays second and look at all the grief he gets even after making all those hits.

Thomas Brennan said...

Agree on Flores fielding, Mack. But he will make 1/10 of what Murphy makes next year, so he may not be our opening day SS, but might be our opening day 2B - and see ya, Murph.

It will be hard for ownership not to fixate on low $$ solutions.

Anonymous said...

I am a little more bullish on Cecchini than most, although I don't see a star in the making. He had an uneven season this year, but did show some flashes in between slumps, including some pop in STL. I think he will develop enough bat to play SS in the Bigs, but there has been some question on whether he can really cut it defensively. I cant find the link right now, but I saw a mid season scouting report saying that he was stinging the ball in Low A, but got hurt by a low BABIP and picked it back up in STL after a really slow start, so there may be a competent starting piece there, but he definitely has an incomplete grade thus far. He was very young for High A, so it would be nice to see him start solid in STL and earn his way up to AA midseason next year.

Mack Ade said...

Cecchini did have a nice stretch in Savannah which earned him his promotion.

Overall, he has never produced the kind of numbers that would warrant him being picked as the 12th overall player in the draft (2012).

I always felt this was a 'panic' pick. Two shortstops were picked before him, Carlos Correa at #1 and then Addison Russell at #11.

The Mets might have reacted to the Russell pick and thought there wouldn't be any quality shortstops left when their second first round pick came up at #35 (Kevin Plawecki).

The real bummer is the fact that the next SS that was drafted was by the Dodgers... Corey Seager,

Thomas Brennan said...

Question, Mack:

Back in the year Cecchini and Seager were drafted, where did you and the pundits in general rank the two relative to one another?

Knowing it can be hard drafting HS kids, it would be interesting if you and the pundits ranked Seager higher, and Mets just made an inferior choice, based on the general outlook even at draft time.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

Honestly, I don't remember talking about either one of them.

The first time I mentioned Cecchini was when he showed up at CitiField for a private workout prior to the draft.

Most 'pundits' had OF Courtney Hawkins as the Mets first pick (infact, it was Hawkins that was tweeting that also).

Cecchini was a suprise.

thunder12k said...

I remember both Cecchini and Seager being talked about due to each of their older brothers' success. I remember watching the draft that night and thought it was going to be Hawkins but was disappointed in the Cecchini pick. I think most viewed him as a underslot signing, hoping to spend later in the draft if I'm not mistaken.

Wasn't Hawkins the one who did a backflip onstage after being drafted by the Sox. Only to be told moments later never to do that again?

Not sure if it was the same year but they were interviewing Ian Clarkin who was very excited about getting ready to be draft and said he hoped it was anyone but the Yankees. Well an hour later, guess which hat he was wearing completely embarrassed. One of my favorite foot in mouth moments.

Thomas Brennan said...

Thanks on Cecchini thoughts. I do recall being steamed that we did not take Lucas Giolito, but I took a look at Hawkins' stats just now and it makes me even more nervous about the prospects of Ivan Wilson.

Hawkins had about a K a game in rookie ball, so not too bad, then his K's exploded in advanced A. Ivan has the huge K rate in rookie ball. What will higher levels look like.

Mack's Mets © 2012