Morning Report – October 3 – A Short Season Recap, Dan-Chat, Curtis Granderson, Run Prevention, Los Angeles Angels

Just got off the phone with my old boss, and current Detroit Tigers fan, Steven Dinetz, Steven was CEO of Chancellor Broadcasting, which became AMFM and Capstar. Iwas his senior VP at Capstar. We all reported to the crazy Hicks Brothers that owned the Texas Rangers.

Steven warned me about the tigers lack of pen buy, wow, I didn't expect this tonight. How do you go a whole season knowing you have this problem and don't do anything about it a month ago?

Heads will roll here.




One of the things I will be branching out this off-season (in the Morning Report) is more info on players in other systems that could be in play. To a great extent, we have written just about every word imaginable on people like Wilmer Flores and Daniel Murphy.

Watch for paragraphs and links to other town/teams blogs on their players.

So, that was that.

Actually, I had a lot of fun covering and writing about this team in the second half of this season, far more than I did since Carlos Beltran didn’t swing at that strike three. There were a lot of signs that things are getting better for Mets fans and most of that happened since the last All-Star game.

You know me. I’m not going to bore you with stats and Sabr shit. That’s Soto’s job.

I’ve always been all gut feeling and I’m not about to change right now.

Here’s some seasonal observations.

    1.     I’m very proud that I started telling my readers as far back as 2009 that 2014 was going to be the year that began Mets pitching dominance. I had no knowledge of people like Zack Wheeler or Jacob deGrom, but everything I saw and was told was that this team was going to build a future about people that perform their duties on the bump. We’re at the beginning of a period in which very talented, team controlled, starters are going take this team to levels they haven’t seen in twenty years. Any combination of nine guys (Wheeler, deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Rafael Montero) will carry this team into the next decade. There are very exciting times ahead.

     2.     I’m especially thrilled that CF Juan Lagares didn’t turn out to be beginner’s luck. His rise from, first, obscurity and then, failed anticipation, to become one of the most respected and feared centerfielders in the game remind me so much of Carlos Gomez, an ex-Met I am still mourning the loss of. I never thought there was much here and I’m so happy Juan (I can use his first name because I know him) has made me look like an ass.

     3.     Can you write a positive piece about the 2014 Mets and not mention Jacob deGrom? My only fear here is the same I shared a year ago for Lagares. The assumption is deGrom is for real which means 2-25ths of the 25-man weren’t on any internal projection board.

     4.     A little lost this season was the maturation process SP Zack Wheeler went through. I really like this guy. I’m not sure how much I would love him if he was the ace on a talent limited rotation. Think Mike Pelfrey here. Still, his second half of the season was quite impressive even though he gave up too many pitchers in the early innings. I assume the Mets pitching coaches will be addressing this in the off-season, but slotting him behind Matt Harvey and deGrom as the SP3) is a perfect slot for 2015.

     5.     I think that Jeurys Familia is not only becoming the ace of the Mets pen, but maybe one of the best relievers in baseball. I also think the Mets will give him the closer role in 2015 and the build the rest of the back end of the pen from there (I have Jenrry Mejia being traded in the off-season for a lefty). There’s very little I didn’t like here and the Mets pen may be one man away from the same kind of talent their rotation has.

     6.     I have to assume that all of you are happy with the home run and runs batted in totals for Lucas Duda. The important thing is he erased any memory of the 2012 season that Ike Davis put up. Duda is now our first baseman and will be until someone in the organization takes it away from him. His ARB-2 year in 2015 is going to generate a serious raise in pay for him, but that’s just fine as long as he produces numbers like he did this year. All he has to do is become a little respectable against left handed pitchers and there is a potential all-star first baseman here.

     7.     I remain concerned with the future of Travis d’Arnaud’s health, but he’s convinced me that he has major league talent. He also lined up as one of those future 20+ hone run hitters I’m always writing about. I will say this. His defense sucks and he really needs to work on that if he wants to remain a starter come 2016.

     8.     Dilson Herrera was an interesting promotion, not because he produced that much, but because it just isn’t a Mets thing to promote this way. This was totally dictated by the fact he was on the 40-man and Matt Reynolds wasn’t, but why not take the safe route here and add Wilfredo Tovar for SS and move Ruben Tejada over from short? No, Sandy Alderson gave the Mets fans (and baseball’s scouts) a peek at the future of the Mets at second base.

     9.     Thank God Wilmer Flores finally got a chance to show up what he can do at the major league level. Is he the starting 2015 shortstop? He seems talented enough, but there are better shortstops available out there. Me? Well, if I had the green light, I would go for J.J. Hardy here and then add Flores to excess pitching I have that could be packaged together for a decent 2015 starting corner outfielder. Either way, Flores’ contribution in 2014 was a plus.

     10.                        And lastly, the last 10 appearances by Rafael Montero have proven that he’s a major league pitcher and the Mets have to make room for him somewhere. He also fills up the row of seats that the scouts sit in. Montero may wind up being the young, team controlled, healthy starter that can get you a decent corner outfielder for 2015. If not, put him in the pen as the long man.
      

     Sully-Chat –

Jeff Sullivan: Curtis Granderson led baseball with 13 3-and-0 swings. Four different players hit two 3-and-0 dingers this season: Seager, Norris, Granderson, Dom Brown. Granderson was 6-for-9 with two doubles and two dingers. That seems like too much

Mack – I’ve suffered from a tremendous amount of baseball tunnel vision over the years. My whole baseball world seems to be the Mets and I don’t even remember seeing Granderson swing at a baseball before becoming a Met. That being said, I HATE his swing, especially against lefties, which looks like something my cousin Linda used to loo with a whiffle bat. They say they’re going to work with him in the off-season, but you know the old saying about old dogs, especially ones with an ego.

Comment From CMG8462 - Do you think the Mets are at the appropriate point in their “rebuild” where they can start adding legitimate pieces through free-agency? Assuming the payroll won’t stay in the mid 80′s for perpetuity..

Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re about ready to be a contender in 2015. I like the run prevention they’re establishing

            ‘Run preventjon’… I like the way he put that. That’s really what we are talking about here. Sure, we all want more runs, but what we really want is the other team to score less than us. The Mets proved that they could stay in just about every game since the All-Star break. They were 42-35 since 10 games prior to the break. That’s in that 90-win range everyone keeps talking about. I know I can easily add up 10 games this team lost, either by blowing a late lead (especially by the pen early on in the season) or by errors or sloppy play. 10 games is an 89-73 record. 10 games is all this team needs.

            So what?  Matt Harvey’s return gets you what, three? A resurgence of David Wright two more? Modified fences for Grandy another two? A full season of positive production by Travis d’Arnaud at least one walk off? We need two more and we haven’t even factored in Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz after the all-star break.

            It really is that close folks.

    Dan-Chat - 
         

Comment From AndrewY - Lucas Duda is one of three NL players to hit 30 home runs. Is he a productive first basemen for the new couple years, or should the Mets be looking for a free agent?

Dan Szymborski: Even if he wasn’t, I don’t think the Mets are yet in a position in which they should be adding many free agents.

Mack – I hate when the writers drink the Kool-Aid. Why can’t the Wilpons sell an apartment building and raise the cash needed to fix this? And while they’re at it, why not just sell the team to one of those internet gazzillionaires that are buying Hawaii island (Larry Ellison). The world is changing and the Mets need to change with it.

Until then, leave Sandy Alderson alone and let him build from within. Frankly, he’s doing a pretty good job with the little he has, but all of this would be a lot easier with the signing of, oh, let’s say J.J. Hardy and Nelson Cruz.

Comment From Mike - Earlier in the season I asked if you would rather have a healthy Michael Pineda or Zack Wheeler and you said Wheeler. Has your mind changed?

Dan Szymborski: I think so, but not by a huge amount. But I’d still rather have Wheeler overall.         

            Mack – I think Wheeler (very quietly) had a wonderful second half of the season and could turn out someday to be the ace of this staff.

We continue our search for a new shortstop and/or left fielder in the AL-West, with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

According to Cot[i], the A of A has a 2014 payroll of $154,546,500.

Most of their stars are signed up on long term contracts.

CF Mike Trout isn’t going anywhere… 6-yr. $144mil through 2020.

LF Josh Hamilton gets paid through 2017 at $32.4mil in that year.

SS Erick Aybar will get paid $8.75 mil through 2016.

Additional outfielders include Kole Calhoun (pre-ARB) and Collin Cowgill (going ARB-1 in 2015).

3B John McDonald serves as backup shortstop.

There really aren’t any standout prospects at shortstop or in the outfield that will rise in either 2015 or 2016.

Mack Observation – The Angels are not a team that is shy of spending money on talented ballplayers. They also aren’t afraid to bring new players into their system to make them an even better team. I really don’t see the Mets finding anyone on this team they could talk the Angels out of (Calhoun) or afford.

I would move on here.

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[i] http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/los-angeles-angels-of-anaheim/