Christopher Soto –
Does this team has enough to make the playoffs? A very rough back of the napkin math calculation can be used to answer this question.
If we take the past 3 years, 162 game averages for every player (1 or 2 years for the newer guys) and extrapolate that across some baselines we could develop our own forecasted WAR projection. 600 Plate Appearances for starters, 200 PA's for bench players, 200 IP for rotation arms, and 65 IP for bullpen arms.
Using the above formula, the current Mets team (again....if they all performed to their 3 year averages and no one got hurt) is slated to win 93.2 Games.
Mack – Your lips to God’s ears.
You all know I am old school and base my victories on whether or not a team scores at least one more run than the other team.
Chris mentioned ‘WAR’. Do you know how Fangraphs defines how this is calculated?
WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
It seems to me that defining this game by formulas like this instead of hitting a ball down the third base line with two runners on and two outs in the ninth, is about as far away from each other’s definition as writing code is to calling my mother-in-law on my flip phone.
I’m going to take Chris’s word on all this, but I will remain skeptical until I see this team play its first inning of the next playoff game in its existence.
Sandy Alderson said that he plans on addressing the need for a second left hand relief pitcher at the upcoming winter meetings. This leads one to assume that this player is currently on some team’s 40-man roster.
Here is the current LHRPs from the American League teams (I will break out the National League tomorrow):
|Scott Barnes||AAA - 25||31.2||35||3.69||1.2|
|Nick Maronde||LAA - 11||6.1||7||12.79||3|
|Pat McCoy||DET - 14||14||11||3.86||2.43|
|Justin Wilson||PIT - 70||60||61||4.2||1.32|
|Colt Hynes||AAA - 49||61.2||53||3.65||1.65|
|Cesar Ramos||TB - 43||82.2||66||3.7||1|
|Edgar Olmos||AAA - 51||77.2||60||4.06||1.3|
It seems to me that a good target team here would be Oakland, though there are plenty others that have, frankly, too many LHRPs. in 2015.
*(no more Wilmer Flores)