11/24/14

The Morning Report – November 24 – WAR, LHRP

23 comments


NMWF*

Christopher Soto
Does this team has enough to make the playoffs? A very rough back of the napkin math calculation can be used to answer this question.

If we take the past 3 years, 162 game averages for every player (1 or 2 years for the newer guys) and extrapolate that across some baselines we could develop our own forecasted WAR projection. 600 Plate Appearances for starters, 200 PA's for bench players, 200 IP for rotation arms, and 65 IP for bullpen arms.

Using the above formula, the current Mets team (again....if they all performed to their 3 year averages and no one got hurt) is slated to win 93.2 Games.

            Mack – Your lips to God’s ears.

You all know I am old school and base my victories on whether or not a team scores at least one more run than the other team.

Chris mentioned ‘WAR’. Do you know how Fangraphs defines how this is calculated?

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

It seems to me that defining this game by formulas like this instead of hitting a ball down the third base line with two runners on and two outs in the ninth, is about as far away from each other’s definition as writing code is to calling my mother-in-law on my flip phone.

I’m going to take Chris’s word on all this, but I will remain skeptical until I see this team play its first inning of the next playoff game in its existence.



Sandy Alderson said that he plans on addressing the need for a second left hand relief pitcher at the upcoming winter meetings. This leads one to assume that this player is currently on some team’s 40-man roster.

Here is the current LHRPs from the American League teams (I will break out the National League tomorrow):

Games IP K ERA WHIP
CWS
Scott Snodgrass 4 2.1 1 15.43 4.71
Eric Surkamp 35 24.1 20 4.81 1.44
Cleve
Scott Barnes AAA - 25 31.2 35 3.69 1.2
Kyle Crockett 43 30 28 1.8 1.13
Nick Hagadone 35 23.1 27 2.7 1.03
Nick Maronde LAA - 11 6.1 7 12.79 3
Marc Rzepczynski 73 46 46 2.74 1.33
Det
Blaine Hardy 38 39 31 2.54 1.38
Ian Krol 45 32.2 28 4.96 1.68
Kyle Ryan 6 10.1 4 2.61 1.16
KC
Francisley  Bueno 30 32.1 20 4.18 1.33
Tim Collins 22 21 15 3.86 1.38
Minny
Brian Duensing 62 54.1 33 3.31 1.33
Glen Perkins 63 61.2 66 3.65 1.18
Balt
Zach Britton 71 76.1 62 1.65 0.9
Brian Matusz 63 51.2 53 3.48 1.32
Pat McCoy DET - 14 14 11 3.86 2.43
T.J. McFarland 37 58.2 34 2.76 1.41
Boston
Drake Britton 7 6.2 4 0 0.6
Tommy Layne 30 19 14 0.95 1.44
NYY
David Huff 30 39 28 1.85 1.31
Justin Wilson PIT  -  70 60 61 4.2 1.32
Tampa
Jeff Beliveau 30 24 28 2.63 1.08
Jack McGee 73 71.1 90 1.89 0.9
C.J. Riefenhauser 7 5.1 2 8.44 1.69
Jays
Brett Cecil 66 53.1 76 2.7 1.37
Colt Hynes AAA - 49 61.2 53 3.65 1.65
Aaron Loup 71 68.2 56 3.15 1.17
Rob Rasmussen 10 11.1 13 3.18 1.32
Astros
Kevin Chapman 21 21.1 19 4.64 1.55
Darin Downs 45 34.2 27 5.45 1.36
Tonny Sipp 56 50.2 63 3.38 0.89
LAA
Wade LeBlanc 10 28.2 21 3.45 1.08
Cesar Ramos TB  -   43 82.2 66 3.7 1
Oak
Fernando Abad 69 57.1 51 1.57 0.85
Sean Doolittle 61 62.2 89 2.73 0.73
Eric O'Flaherty 21 20 15 2.25 0.95
Sea
Charlie Furbush 67 42.1 51 3.61 1.16
Lucas Luetge 12 9 7 5 1.22
Edgar Olmos AAA - 51 77.2 60 4.06 1.3
Texas
Alex Claudio 15 12.1 14 2.92 1.45
Michael Kirkman 12 5.2 3 1.59 1.06

It seems to me that a good target team here would be Oakland, though there are plenty others that have, frankly, too many LHRPs. in 2015.


                                                                                    *(no more Wilmer Flores)

23 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

Morning, Mack and Chris
Why not 93? As compared to going into 2013, we are bringing back (if healthy) a Cy Young caliber in Harvey, had another Cy Young caliber (deGrom) sneak into the scene, an improving Wheeler who could be an All Star caliber starter, and very solid 4/5. Bullpen strong. Hitting much stronger, and fences shorter to help the hitters psychologically.

Why not?

TP said...

Morning Mack,
I have no qualms with Chris's math, and while I am old school like you in that a real win is all that matters, I do appreciate the WAR calculations as well. All that being said, 92 wins as currently composed is very very very optimistic, and also very unlikely. The team still needs to be clearly strengthed, defensively and in the pen. Regarding the LHP to the pen, a clear need, Alderson doesn't only need to add another arm, it needs to be a quality arm. The 2014 approach of adding a few retreads and seeing if you hit on one is not the approach that a team truly intent on making the playoffs takes. I appreciate the budget concerns, but they should have money to upgrade the pen and frankly should be bidding for Miller unless Sandy has a deal in place for a quality player.

Lew Rhodes said...

Mack - FA's sign during the Winter Meetings - I wouldn't read Sandy's comments to requiring a trade - likely, but he could be meeting with an agent at the meetings too

As for 93 wins - I think very plausible, they had 79 wins without their best pitches and an awful year from their best player - Harvey and a (hopefully) healthy Wright is likely good for 6 wins alone

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey Lew

And "a full year of starts" Jake, vs. 3/4 of a season last year, and a Wheeler who should be ready to move into an upgraded season with his developed experience.

And no rickety April bullpen, but a real one for the full season...and a catcher who is now seasoned and can hit...and no Chris Young, but Cuddyer instead...and a SS in FLores whose hitting will make SS a far better position than last year's muck. And an adjusted and better Granderson, and Lagares and Dekker ready to enhance the CF and 4th OF slots over last year.

Sprinkle in a little luck and 93 sure looks plausible.

Of course, as Reese would say, there's Terry...

Hobie said...

I'd be OK with one of the Oakland guys, but how much of an upgrade over Eveland are any of them? idk, just asking. Would OAK be a landing spot for Kirk?

I was once enamored with Surkamp, but his MLB stats have been meh-minus. (Thought Beltran might land Surkamp & Hector Sanchez--didn't think e had a shot at Wheeler, so what do I know?)

Reese Kaplan said...

There is still dead weight to be dropped from the 40-man roster in order to make personnel changes. Ruben Tejada, Eric Young, Gonzalez Germen, Dario Alvarez, Erik Goeddel and Cesar Puello are most definitely on the bubble. I would be surprised but not disappointed if they dropped Kirk Nieuwenhuis as Matt Den Dekker makes him redundant and Anthony Recker as no one would be rushing to sign a .201 hitting catcher so the risk would be minimal.

Bill Metsiac said...

No need to "dump dead weight". If FAs are signed to ML contracts, yes, there must be room on the 40. But if trades are made, the acquisitions replace those traded.

Oakland signed Andrew Brown, but when they traded for Davis they DFA'D Brown. Not the reverse.

As to the 93 Ws projection, though I'm not a WAR-monger, I've said for a while that mid-90s is not unreasonable. 79 last year, with the additions of Harvey, Parnell, Cuddy, and a healthy Wright, plus Grandy's hitting guru, make a jump of 14-15 Ws a real possibility. Only serious injuries might derail this.

Mack Ade said...

Don't get me wrong...

I don't care how this team gets to 93 wins

Mack Ade said...

Hobie -

I'm just surprised with the amount of lefty relievers each of these teams have that pitched for them in the majors last year

Charles said...

If they simply get 90 if be happy. This is a turn the corner year. If they do well this season, it'll get the fans back into the building. Which in turn will help to raise payroll at a time when Colon and Murphy will be off the books. Hopefully Dilson steps in for Murphy and Thor for Colon.

By then, if imagine that Niese or Gee will have been traded and now the rotation is great and cheap and they'll be able to have enough payroll flexibility to do whatever they need.

I look at this team and say that as long as Wright and Granderson produce near their past capabilities, they shouldn't have a problem winning ball games. Let's face it though, everybody has a question mark. It could go either way. I wouldn't be shocked if their pitching keeps them at .500. It's the offense that will get them over the top. Guys like Darno and Flores will be counted on to be productive at the plate.

Anonymous said...

Couldn't agree more with Charles. While I hope and expect the Mets to approach 90 wins in 2015, the full fruition will likely start in 2016 when the Vets are gone, the young ones have a bit of seasoning, the rotation is complete without inning limits and heaven forbid they have a little extra to spend on one more piece. What also cannot be overlooked is that one more year of seasoning in the minors will make the Farm that much stronger and better trade inventory as Molina, Smith, Conforto, Nimmo, Rosario and even Cecchini will be out of the lower minors, which substantially changes their ability to help the big league club by filling holes or serving as trade bait for a more meaningful return. Think the Farm is good now? One more year closer to the bigs makes everyone more valuable if they don't have set backs
Anon Joe F

Herb G said...

So early in the off season, it's nice to have as few question marks as we have. Rotation looks very solid. Only possibalre hole in the lineup is a SS, and Flores could definitely be the answer there. We should have a strong, run producing lineup even as it is now constitued. Maybe need to add a fourth OF, a righty who can play when Cuddy spells Lucas against lefties. Alex Rios, anyone?

So now we get to the other lefty in the pen. I wouldn't be surrised to see Alderson stock up on LHRPs. Joe Beimel would be a good inexpensive signing at the Winter Meetings. It is said that SA is also interested in bringing Dana Eveland back, which would be a good move. And does anyone know if Scott Rice might be healthy to start the season? Then, let Leather Jack compete for a bull pen spot in ST. Pen should be solid too.

Thomas Brennan said...

Herb, I hope Leathersich makes the team out of spring training, as I will still have my leather bomber jacket in the closet to wear to an early season game.

To Mack's point today and in recent days, seems in this game of ebbs and flows that there is a real flow of lefty and righty pitching in baseball right now, which will make it tough for the Jacks of the world to crack the glass ceiling known as ML Baseball

Hobie said...

Herb--

I am assuming den Dekker is OF #4. As the 5th (& RHB) I want to give Puello a shot at first. If he flops I'd work down the list: Castellanos, Lawley, etc. (and there's Campbell of Course). Don't see FA's Rios, Hairston, etc.

Anonymous said...

In addition to everything stated here, it would be extremely HELPFUL if the Mets could figure out how to compete with the Nationals......4-15 (or whatever their head to head record ended up being) isn't going to cut it.

Make that 9-9 head to head and we automatically move to 84 wins!

Brian Joura said...

I just wish we could divorce ourselves from the idea that carrying multiple LH relievers is the only path to success.

It will be a good day when our bullpen is comprised of the seven best guys we can get, rather than the five best and two schmos who throw with their left hand.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey Brian

Sometimes you just have to go lefty / righty, you know/ One guy in the Mets system dominates righties - the past 2 years, 264 at bats, the pitcher has held the righty hitters to .196 and a .292 slug %, while striking out 130 of those guys.

Oh, I'm sorry, he's a lefty - Jack Leathersich, chewing up righties into very small pieces and spitting them out.

Yeah, not as good vs. lefties, but in 2014, lefties hit a meager .235 with a still-low .376 slug % and 34 of his 84 at bats against ending in Ks. I've seen worse.

This guy figures out lefties a little more and he certainly seems to warrant the respect he just got getting added to the 40 man roster. And would certainly not be looked upon as just a LOOGIE.

Let's compare Jack vs. a true, well-known LOOGIE, Josh Edgin. In the last minors season (2012) with real innings, Josh went 21 innings vs. righties, 21 hits, 17 runs. Not real good, right?

Night and day difference from what jack does vs. righties, which is turn them into pablum (and yes, I do remember the Giancarlo homer off jack last spring training, which just landed on a comet several hundred million miles away. Stanton clearly got lucky!!)

Anyway, I want Jack on the Mets roster no later than Memorial Day. The Mets could play the tape of Nicholson in the Shining, when he said "Here's Johnny", as our Jack strides towards the mound.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

This Leathersich obsession is like a broken record.

Thomas, the guy has 11 relief appearances at the AAA level in 2014 and produced a 5.40 ERA... his BB/9 from AA the same year went back up from 4.11 (still too high at AA) to 7.56

The last time he was in AAA (2013) he went 7.76-ERA in 28 appearances.

Why do you keep preaching about a guy that can't produce any decent kind of results at the AAA level?

Bill Metsiac said...

What has Soup done to deserve such disrespect, other than doing a good job at the plate and playing decently at corner OF and 1? I have no ideawhat's going on with Puellu, but Wally AND his Winter League mgr are very down on him. And Reese and Tom can't even blame Terry for it.

As fr the LHRP, I'm becoming more and more tempted to give it to Matz to start off, Cardinals style.

Mack Ade said...

Bill -

I agree with you on Campbell.

To me, he's the perfect utility player. Plays 5 positions, none of which where he's going to threaten to take someone's job away but good enough to get thorough the game and not embarrassing himself.

He also, because of his versatility, saves a team a roster slot that can be used for an additional player.

TP said...

Brian,
Bad teams get one or two lefty schmos so the manger can pretend to manage. Competitive teams obtain one or two lefties that are among the seven best relief arms in the organization. If Alderson is for real he will obtain a LHP for the pen that is one of the six best relief arms in the organization, and let Edgin, Leather, and the other internal options fight it out for that 7th spot in the pen. No excuses this winter.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey Mack, I can't help myself when it comes to Leathersich. Well, I could, really, but then that would be boring. I like throwing the underdog out there like he's gold and see what hornets it stirs up.

You're absolutely correct on his needing to show what he can do a whole lot better in AAA...and if they felt he were ready, they wouldn't be shopping for a lefty.

eraff said...

I hope Sandy and the Wilpons don't look at this present roster and come to the conclusion that it's a 93 win team!

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