11/10/14

The Morning Report – November 10 – David Wright, Yasmany Tomas, Josh Reddick Troy Tulowitzki

9 comments




I spent this morning visiting a number of sites, including Cot Baseball and, particularly, the current Mets salary page.[i] They’ve removed the 2014 numbers and, without them listed, the Mets page looks very simple. Only four members of the current team are under any form of extended contract, one of which is Bartolo Colon ($11mil/2015) who reached free agency in a year.

The other three are well known amongst Mets fans… Jon Niese ($7.05mil/2015, $9.05mil/2016, team option/2017)… Curtis Granderson ($16mil/yr/2015 & 2016, $15mil/2017), and David Wright, a contract with six years left on it that starts in 2015 at $20mil and declines to $12mil in 2020.

I also read a number of articles about how the progress of Wright’s should is actually improving[ii] and how we should all look forward to him returning to punching out the kind of numbers we have grown to become accustomed to, but I have to tell you. I read these articles… then stared at the stat line he put out this last season[iii]… and then went back to Cot to remind myself of just how much the team still owes this guy and I started to realize that this could easily become the worst long term contract in the history of either the Omar Minaya or Sandy Alderson era.

Look at the four year period of 2011-2014, where Wright is supposedly at his prime (28-31/years old). We’re talking a combined 60-HRs and 275-RBIs… compare this to the four year period of 2005-2008 (22-25/yrs old)… 126-HRs and 449-RBIs.

It’s one thing to look at this declining trend. It’s another to remind ourselves that there is six more years left on his contract.

Don’t get me wrong… no one loves The Captain move than me, but let’s hope for some extended good health here. Otherwise, you may never see a Mets contract past two years ever again.



Joel Sherman speculated that the Mets would be a great lading zone for OF Yazmany Tomas[iv] Sherman said –

The Mets have shown an aversion for spending on players they know a lot more about than Tomas, who could cost $100 million or more on a six- or seven-year deal. But here is the question I would ask: Are the Mets ever getting in the game or not?

Sherman knows this is never going to happen. $100mil? Six or seven years? What are you talking about, Willis?



Beyond the Box Score ‏@BtBScore  -  Highest first-pitch ball%’s in #MLB in 2014 (500 pitches min.) - N. Martinez (47.2%) - T. Lincecum (45.5) - J. De la Rosa (45.2) - Z. Wheeler (45.0)



@JimBowden_ESPN on Mets: "I'd be very careful not to trade the young arms...They built that strength I'd like them to take advantage of it"



From “Five Players The Mets Should Pursue”[v]

Josh Reddick - As I’ve broken down before, Josh Reddick would be a relatively cheap acquisition with extremely high upside. He’s hit as many as 32 home runs and driven in as many as 85 runs. Reddick is a lefty with power and speed, and he’s batted from second to seventh in the Oakland A’s lineup. He’s solid in the clutch, unafraid of the big moments and an excellent right fielder with a strong arm. He’s had a few seasons shortened by injury, partly due to his daredevil-style athleticism in the field — but if he can stay healthy, his defense alone would make him worth a shot. Best of all, he’s only 27, and his current contract is only $2.7 million. Think of him as Matt den Dekker with a stronger arm and more of a Major League track record. As for den Dekker, he’d make solid trade bait as part of a package deal — or the Mets could stash him while he cultivates his own interesting upside in triple-A or as a fourth outfielder. The A’s wouldn’t give Reddick away for peanuts, but the Mets wouldn’t have to sell the farm, either.







Possible Tulo trade to Mets - The match that immediately comes to mind with those parameters, of course, is the Mets. There’s an immediate need for a shortstop, they have two rotations worth of starters, with Matt Harvey on the fast track back from Tommy John surgery. What’s not to like? They’re even bringing the fences in again. The problem is that whole money thing, especially if Dick Monfort isn’t willing to provide financial assistance. The Mets are still working their way back from being swept up in the Bernie Madoff fiasco, and while revenue (and payroll) should start going up at some point soon, taking on Tulowitzki AAV of $20 million may be a tall order for almost any team. The Mets are also reportedly loath to part with their young pitching. The aforementioned stockpiling strategy seems to be their plan. If they did trade for Tulowitzki, it would undoubtedly involve Noah Syndergaard, and one of Rafael Montero and Steven Matz

. There would probably be some sort of position player involved too. That’s a genuine blockbuster for sure.[i]



Baseball Draft Ga Ga - In 2005, the Red Sox minor league system was ranked 21st among the 30 teams. Their top six prospects that year were: 1. Hanley Ramirez, 2. Brandon Moss, 3. Jonathan Papelbon, 4. Jon Lester, 5. Anibal Sanchez, 6. Dustin Pedroia. They’ve since gone on to accumulate 164.4 WAR. The Chicago Cubs were ranked 11 spots ahead of the Red Sox, at No. 10. Their top prospects were; 1. Brian Dopirak, 2. Felix Pie, 3. Ryan Harvey, 4. Angel Guzman, 5. Billy Petrick, 6. Renyel Pinto. They ended up being worth minus 1.1 WAR.[ii]



Infielder Asdrubal Cabrera (Washington Nationals) – New York Mets. This is it Mets fans, your big signing, Asdrubal Cabrera. The Mets are interested in two obvious positions: left field and shortstop. Regardless of how the front office and ownership phrases it, they will not be spending much this offseason. This is not to say Cabrera would be a poor signing, as he is at the very least a stopgap at shortstop, with flexibility to stick at second base. The Nationals might be in the hunt to retain him, but there is no definite answer at this point in time. At the very least, the Cabrera signing will

9 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

Josh Reddick: That is where the calls get tough for a GM. He had one excellent power year, and 3 other decent but lower power ones. Is he a clear-cut upgrade over Matt den Dekker? Hard to say. It’s entirely possible Matt could be superior to Josh in 2015. More likely it is vice versa. Matt will in Wilpons' mind outperform Reddick in "cheap". That may be good enough for them, along with a righty hitting platoon guy to offset Matt.

Another place for GMs to get the willies is working out possible prospect-depleting trades for a Tulo or a Kemp, and taking on perhaps only a portion of their salary, but still a huge commitment. The Wright Uncertainty Effect (will a guy lose it or not?) always lurks with these big contracts – and if a guy (hopefully not in Wright’s case) goes into permanent decline, then you’re stuck with these guys big time.

So I think our GM will continue on a conservative route, under the guise of it is better to be “wrong cheap” than “mega bucks wrong”. Go Cheap And Hope For The Breaks is the theme, I fear.

Anonymous said...

Morning Mack:
Hope you had a great weekend?
We talked over the past seasons about the San Fran model!
I still believe this is how Sandy is operating. The core is the pitching and the everyday players will come and go. Saying that,i don't think you'll see Sandy trading away pitching depth for expensive players,like Tulo Kemp or Cargo? But a guy like Reddick I see happening. I'd still like to see some of the younger players signed threw Arb years though. Like Lagares Wheeler Duda ,same as what Niese did a few years ago.
Take care
Steve

eraff said...

Anmon---if the GIANTS MODEL resembles the Giants $147 million 2104 payroll, Count Me In!!!!

eraff said...

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/salaries/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giants

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey mack, in the broken record department, I guess we'll see soon enough where the fences get moved in to, but going back to David Wright, here is a guy that hits plenty of balls to dead center and right center. The fences coming in for right center will help him, hopefully.

Moving dead center in 6 or 7 feet would also have helped him, perhaps more than the Right Center move in, with little added construction costs. Not doing CF too when you owe David $107 million over the next 6 years is just not prudent.

He was heavily penalized by fence depths since 2009, this would have been the chance to really help him out. Yet, I also have to blame David, who at least publically is not bringing up the CF depth issue.

Maybe he'll sneak out 3 or 4 more in right field due to the fixes. I'll bet 7 feet shorter in CF would add 3 to 5 more. He'd look rejuvenated, just based on the dimensions.

Fences are likely now cast in stone, dimension-wise, but the Mets can still break out new blueprints and shave several feet off of dead center. It is not too late.

John Zozo said...

Mack
Wrights first numbers the Mets had hitting with no pitching, and played their games at Shea. She's was a whole lot better for his opposite field swing.
The second scenario he moves to Citifield and gets no protection in the lineup and gets injured a couple of times.
I feel he isn't on too much of a decline factor if you consider who is protecting him in the lineup and ball park factor. If you put a Kemp/ Braun type in this lineup he will finally get some pitches to hit. I also feel and hope his shoulder does get better. I am so surprised not at you but how so many Mets fans on coming down on our franchise player. He will Wright the ship, lol

Anonymous said...

Not sure on the dimensions, but hopefully it will add more to the Met HR totals than the opposition and not sure how many others DW would hit if they moved in CF, but I would prefer and extra few feet in CF because I think JLag gets to more balls out there than the other team's CF. I think it was here yesterday that showed the Giants (and Angels) payroll v WAR and clearly the biggest contributors were the lower paid players, so not sure a team has to get up in the stratosphere to get more wins. I think the Mets are close and would prefer additional patience to a splash signing to appease the mobs. I don't see any of the FA being solutions and the days of taking a flyer on an unproven Cuban are over for the Mets. I am sure that I am in the minority, but I would actually start the season with what they currently have and look to make an acquisition mid year to fill holes. I think that MDD could be a valuable starting CF on other teams, so if he is successful in the ABs they are looking to give him, he would be an attractive piece in a package. I just don't see any difference makers and the Mets are already saddled with DW and Grandy contracts, so adding one more would likely limit any other additions, like Upton or Heyward next year.
Anon Joe F

Mack Ade said...

Guys -

well, I hope you are all right about Wright

Anonymous said...

Build the Arms and buy the bats

Mack's Mets © 2012