Mack - 2015 Prospect List - #1 – 2B – Dilson Herrera


My rankings is solely subjective and based on nothing more than what is in my head at time I’m writing this. I’ve followed the Mets minor league players for many years and I feel I can recognize talent at various levels of their development. What I have failed at is how to determine when this talent seems to diminish. It’s amazing how many first round picks never make it in this game.

I’m old school, so you won’t seem much SABR-discussion here, I do research and, when I find a good quote or two, I’ll add them to my analysis, but, like I said in the beginning of this post, most of this us subjective.

Let’s get started.

#1 – 2B – Dilson Herrera – 20-years old – 5-10, 150 – R/R

                       Cartagena, Columbia – International free agent signee by Pittsburgh

                       2011 – VSL-Pit – 214-AB, .308/.413/.472/885, 2-HR, 27-RBI

                       2012 – GCL/Pit – SC-A – 227-AB, .286/.341/.489/830, 8-HR, 29-RBI

                       2013 – WV – Sav – 442-AB, .267/.334/.416/750, 11-HR, 60-RBI

                       2014 – St.L – B-Mets -  524-AB, .323/.379/.479/858, 13-HR, 71-RBI

                       2014 – Mets -  59-AB, .220/.303/.407/710, 3-HR, 11-RBI

Herrera signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2010 and received a $220K signing bonus. The played three years in the Pirates chain and represented the team in the 2013 All-Star Future’s Game.

In August 2013, Sandy Alderson pulled off a superb trade. He sent two players mid-season to the Pirates, OF Marlon Byrd and C John Buck, who had no future as a New York Met. In return, the Mets got RP Vic Black and Herrera (as it turned out, both Byrd and Buck didn’t stay with the Pirates either).

No one expected the kind of numbers Herrera punched out in 2014 (524-AB, .323/.379/.479/858, 13-HR, 71-RBI). But the good news for Herrera wasn’t over yet for the year.

2B Daniel Murphy went down with an injury (calf strain) and the first choice to stand in for him, Matt Reynolds, wasn’t on the 40-man roster. So the call went out and Herrera managed to get 59 major league at bats under his belt.
His three home runs and 11 runs batted in for the Mets raised his season total to 16-HRs and 82-RBIs.  For a 20-year old second baseman.

Outlook –

Dilson Herrera will be your next Mets second baseman.

Every scouting report you read boasts of his gap-to-gap hitting and, yes, he will make a name for himself first with a bat in his hand, not a glove.

That’s being said, he’s not a bad fielder and good enough at second baseman. He would be considered slow at short, but, who cares. He doesn’t play short.
The important thing to see is the growth in his power. Go back and look at the home runs he has generates so far in his four year professional career:  2011: 2 home runs… 2012: 8 home runs… 2013: 11 home runs… 2014: 16 home runs.

We’re going to have to wait one more year for Herrera to start in Queens, but this is my first (and probably only) prediction during this process.

This is your next break out star and he will be for many years.


Tom Brennan said...

So Sandy got a "breakout star... for many years" (Herrera) and a power pen arm ("Black") for a Byrd and Buck short-term rental...hats off to Alderson for a franchise-changing trade.

Reese Kaplan said...

Hats off first of all for one of the few "lightning in a bottle" signings that worked -- Marlon Byrd. Then there were the many flameouts -- Francisco, Young, the other Chris Young, Valverde, Farnsworth, the wrong Abreu, Marcum, Laffey, etc.

He then did with Byrd what he did with Beltran and Dickey (and failed to do with Reyes) -- loaded up with minor league prospects.

How about some major leaguers for major leaguers...or our minor leaguers going for their major leaguers? I'm still waiting to see that happen.

Stephen Guilbert said...

Gutsy call having Herrera above Syndergaard but I like it.

I am still hoping Sandy finds a suitor for Murphy and a starting pitcher and gets some good talent in return. Let this kid play. He's one of the best baseball players at any position in the system and I don't care about the age. He makes this team better over Murphy.

Hobie said...

The only thing better than the Byrd/Buck for Herrera/Black trade would have been signing Byrd back instead of CY AND Granderson.

Richard Jones said...


No two independent thinkers would ever agree 100% on a list like this. So I do disagree with you slightly at several places in the list.
That being said I can see the logic to placement of each of your top 30. You did a great job not just with the list but with the information on each player.
Thank you for your effort.

Mack Ade said...

Richard -

You are very welcome.

Anonymous said...

Minor quibble, but I think stating that Byrd and Buck were traded "mid-season" doesn't do justice to Alderson's deal.

Yes, mid-season could be considered as any time during the season, but it almost implies that it was in the middle of the season, when Alderson managed to get Herrera and Black for one month of Byrd and Buck.

It was a great transaction, and ranks up there with the Dickey and Beltran trades as Alderson's best.

Unknown said...

Here is hoping that the Byrd/Buck for Black Herrera passes Hearn for Cone as the biggest steal in Mets history.

There is a topic for you Mack - we all know the Mets made horrible trades (Ryan, Seaver, Kent, etc.)

How about a series on the best trades in NY Met history?

I put Cone and Hernandez at the top, with the Dickey and Beltran trades closing the gap

Charles said...

The Beltran, Dickey, and Bryd/Buck deals are really the only reason why Alderson can arguably say that his term as GM has been successful. More than that, ill give him tremendous props because I'm not sure that many GMs would've had the patience to hold out for those returns.

The Dickey deal alone is unbelievable when you consider what he got for essentially just RA Dickey. Yes a Cy Young winner, but a late 30s knuckleballer no matter how you slice it. That's a deal that may end up being the worst deal in their franchises history if Darno continues to improve and Thor becomes a SP2. And Wilmuir Beccera still may end up an above average rregular at some point.

Mack Ade said...

Lew - worth looking into

Unknown said...

a couple of good trades in 5 years isnt enough. add in the terrible trades and the pathetic free agent signings and overall alderson is a train wreck gm.

franchise changing? thats a setious stretch. black is nothing special, hurt often and wild alot. herrera looks good but hasnt done anything at the major league level.

Unknown said...

Terrible tradeS?

The Pagan trade was bad

But the "couple" of good trades you mention brought it 2 pitchers who have front line potential - two arms that good change a franchise

I think you are selling Alderson a good bit short

Unknown said...

Mack - Glad you like the idea, I think ESPNNY did one not too long ago

Charles - those trades were huge, I think seeing how the past few drafts start producing will be the true barometer on Sandy

Honestly, I think today with Harvey, Niese, deGrom, Murphy, Duda, Meija, and Parnell with soon to add Matz, being what they are today, most Mets fans would think more highly of Omar than they did 5 years ago.

If Nimmo, Cecchini, Smith, Conforto and some of the young arms added in the past few drafts pan out - Sandy will be very successful

greg b said...

What the budget Sandy has been given since being Mets gm, I think his done a fine job. Built up the system where now they can start trading off a few prospects for need. His intl signings are as good as Omar if not better.

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