PROJECTION OF METS’ OFFENSE 2015 VS. 2014 - OUTFIELD: Tom Brennan
The Mets’ 2014 offense was offensive. 629 runs.
P.S. the source of my 2014 stats were one of the
Mets’ website links.
Position
|
2014 RBIs
|
Projected 2015
|
Difference
|
First Base
|
96
|
110
|
+14
|
Second Base
|
73
|
70
|
-3
|
Shortstop
|
57
|
80
|
+23
|
Third Base
|
69
|
90
|
+21
|
Catcher
|
74
|
75
|
+1
|
Left Field
|
46
|
80
|
+34
|
Center Field
|
76
|
75
|
-1
|
Right Field
|
78
|
90
|
+12
|
Pinch Hitting
|
18
|
30
|
+12
|
Pitchers
|
12
|
20
|
+8
|
TOTALS
|
599
|
720
|
+121
|
That run production increase, plus Harvey’s
return, a full year of deGrom, and a stronger bullpen starting the season, and
I think we could win 86-94 games in 2015. Most target us for less. I think that’s the range.
So this is article 5 of 6. I have summarized my thoughts regarding each
position’s projections - previous included 1st base and 2nd
base; shortstop and 3rd base; catcher.
· Outfield (today’s article)
· Pitchers and pinch hitters
(next article)
CENTER FIELD:
Last year, Juan Lagares surprised a bunch of folks (but not me) hitting .282 with 24 doubles and 4 HRs in 414 at bats for a .384 slug %. Not bad, and a real improvement over 2013, but those stats marginal for an outfield starter – except for that other-worldly glove, the one that makes him a terrific starting Center Fielder. Due to Lagares’ early season platooning and an injury, other CFs (Nieuwenhuis, the Young-sters, Granderson, and den Dekker) combined for 220 CF at bats, hitting a combined .245.
Overall, the combined 2014 CF was actually pretty fine offensively, at .269, with 43 doubles, 3 triples, 14 HR, and 76 RBIs in 634 official at bats (just 38 walks though).
In 2015, I see Lagares adding 100 plate appearances, with an increment in his power, average, and on base % in 2015, to .290/.330/.410. I think he continues to come into his own offensively, and he’ll sneak a few more homers out in the shorter right side of the outfield in 2015.
Last year, Juan Lagares surprised a bunch of folks (but not me) hitting .282 with 24 doubles and 4 HRs in 414 at bats for a .384 slug %. Not bad, and a real improvement over 2013, but those stats marginal for an outfield starter – except for that other-worldly glove, the one that makes him a terrific starting Center Fielder. Due to Lagares’ early season platooning and an injury, other CFs (Nieuwenhuis, the Young-sters, Granderson, and den Dekker) combined for 220 CF at bats, hitting a combined .245.
Overall, the combined 2014 CF was actually pretty fine offensively, at .269, with 43 doubles, 3 triples, 14 HR, and 76 RBIs in 634 official at bats (just 38 walks though).
In 2015, I see Lagares adding 100 plate appearances, with an increment in his power, average, and on base % in 2015, to .290/.330/.410. I think he continues to come into his own offensively, and he’ll sneak a few more homers out in the shorter right side of the outfield in 2015.
As
back up to Juan, and spelling him for (let’s say) 20 games against tough
righties, I'd like to see den Dekker over Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Matt is the better
fielder, and I think he really figured out his excessive strikeout thing in
2014, whereas Kirk has not. Overall, I can see Matt getting 200 major
league at bats, and re-introducing a bit of pop into his enhanced contact
swing. 200 at bats, .275, .350, 5 homers 25 RBIs. Half of that as
Juan's back up in CF, half of it backing up Granderson or Cuddyer.
So I see .285, 15 HRs, 85 runs and 80
RBIs out of CF in 2015,
a relatively small increment over the collective production for all the Mets'
2014 CFs.
And FIVE STAR CF DEFENSE. Making it a Mets position of strength.
LEFT FIELD:
I’m sorry, I
had to bring up 2014 Mets left field.
.219 in 606 at bats, 6 homers, 46 RBIs – ugh! (83 runs scored - not too terrible there). It got “old” having the 2 Youngs playing in
LF and during their left field stats hitting just .218 in 394 official at bats.
Michael Cuddyer, Dekker and Mayberry in 2015? How about .270, 15 homers, 75
RBIs and 90 runs. We got less
Younger, but a lot better in LF.
RIGHT FIELD:
Due to
Curtis Granderson’s early ice-cold start and a few blips of deep freeze throughout the
2014 season, the left field contingent (493 Granderson ABs, 72 from Abreu, and 45
from other players) hit .240, with 34 doubles, 19 HRs, 83 runs scored and 78
RBIs. Lots of walks, lots more
strikeouts. In other words, 162 games of
mediocrity. Not terrible. Clearly mediocre, though.
2015 should
be better. Shorter fences, his favorite
batting coach, 2nd year on the team and in the NL, I see .250, 25 HRs,
85 runs, 80 RBIs from Grandy in 140 games.
Adding in the RF subs, how about .250 overall, 28 HRs, 95 runs, 90 RBIs? So, add 12 runs of production over last year
for this slot. Not terrific but solid.
In summary, I see 45 more runs out of the outfield in 2015. I would not be surprised if it turns out to be more.
Next and final edition: pitchers and pinch hitters, a motley offensive bunch in 2014.
2 comments:
I think you're slightly optimistic on Juan Lagares, wildly optimistic on Curtis Granderson and rather pessimistic on Michael Cuddyer. The net result might be somewhat under what you predicted.
Hey Reese, on Grandy I figured he'd not repeat his .140 April, and his other 5 months were close to the pace I see for 2015.
Having Long as coach ought to help, and so should the shorter fences.
If nonetheless my projections turn out to be wildly optimistic on him, he is unfortunately wildly overpaid. He needs a big year 2 of 4 on this contract, or it is a bust.
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